ATPHard (Indoor)Basel2026-10-29 10:00

Valentin Vacherot v Rafael Jodar

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

V. Vacherot to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.65 or bigger · our chance 61% · market 28/72, us 32/68

V. Vacherot is 6-4 over the last ten and 15-15 on hard this season. R. Jodar is 8-2 over the last ten and 39-14 on hard this season. R. Jodar took a medical timeout on 2026-10-18.

The pick is V. Vacherot to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 61% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.65 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

V. Vacherot		R. Jodar
14	Ranking	13
6-4	Last 10	8-2
WLLWL	Last 5	WLWWW
+1.1	V the odds	+1.9
25-18	Season	57-18
15-15	Hard 2026	39-14
2	Last 7 days	1
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	MTO
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

V. Vacherot3.4628%

R. JodarFAV1.3572%

Market says72% Jodar

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

V. VacherotWLLWL

R. JodarWLWWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

V. Vacherot

R. Jodar

25-18

15-15

Lost R32 to T. Fritz

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

57-18

39-14

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

Rafael Jodar

Spain

Monaco

24–16

14–12

6–4

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Spain

52–17

30–12

19–4

2–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

V. Vacherot — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	M. Navone	1.53	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 VacherotNavonePoints won53%47%Serve points won70%62%Return points won38%30%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved6 of 711 of 13Aces121Double faults43
2026-10-22	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. van Assche	1.77	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 VacherotAsschePoints won50%50%Serve points won64%65%Return points won35%36%Games held11 of 1411 of 14Break points saved4 of 71 of 4Aces108Double faults25
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	T. Paul	2.47	61%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotPaulPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%65%Return points won35%47%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved2 of 66 of 7Aces94Double faults10
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	S. Baez	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 VacherotBaezPoints won55%45%Serve points won77%66%Return points won34%23%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 31 of 3Aces155Double faults10
2026-10-05	Tokyo	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.59	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotLeheckaPoints won39%61%Serve points won60%90%Return points won10%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces410Double faults30
2026-10-04	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	4.32	78%	WON
Games in each set7-5 4-6 6-4 VacherotFilsPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held13 of 1612 of 16Break points saved5 of 85 of 9Aces146Double faults48
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	2.37	59%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 VacherotTsitsipasPoints won49%51%Serve points won70%70%Return points won30%30%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved6 of 83 of 5Aces79Double faults10
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Blockx	2.17	55%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 VacherotBlockxPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%62%Return points won38%29%Games held10 of 1210 of 12Break points saved7 of 96 of 8Aces72Double faults52
2026-09-26	Chengdu	Hard	L. Harris	1.88	52%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 VacherotHarrisPoints won45%55%Serve points won70%84%Return points won16%30%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved1 of 20 of 0Aces416Double faults22
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	O. Virtanen	1.65	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 4-6 6-4 VacherotVirtanenPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%62%Return points won38%34%Games held13 of 1613 of 16Break points saved10 of 1310 of 13Aces1414Double faults55

R. Jodar — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	A. Tabilo	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 JodarTabiloPoints won57%43%Serve points won70%56%Return points won44%30%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved6 of 66 of 9Aces46Double faults11
2026-10-18	Shanghai	Hard	A. Davidovich Fokina	1.74	56%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 6-7 4-6 JodarFokinaPoints won51%49%Serve points won63%61%Return points won39%37%Games held12 of 1510 of 14Break points saved4 of 78 of 12Aces126Double faults21
2026-10-17	Shanghai	Hard	D. Medvedev	2.65	63%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 JodarMedvedevPoints won54%46%Serve points won60%54%Return points won46%40%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved4 of 63 of 7Aces63Double faults24
2026-10-16	Shanghai	Hard	C. Ruud	1.78	55%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-3 JodarRuudPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%56%Return points won44%33%Games held11 of 1410 of 15Break points saved4 of 710 of 15Aces610Double faults05
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	B. Van De Zandschulp	1.54	63%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-2 JodarZandschulpPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%59%Return points won41%32%Games held14 of 1511 of 15Break points saved1 of 25 of 9Aces46Double faults26
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.46	60%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 JodarLeheckaPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%68%Return points won32%33%Games held15 of 1615 of 16Break points saved5 of 63 of 4Aces310Double faults02
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	T. A. Tirante	1.42	68%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-2 6-3 JodarTirantePoints won52%48%Serve points won66%69%Return points won31%34%Games held13 of 1410 of 13Break points saved9 of 103 of 6Aces45Double faults32
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	D. Vallejo	1.23	79%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 3-6 JodarVallejoPoints won35%65%Serve points won38%68%Return points won32%62%Games held2 of 86 of 8Break points saved6 of 120 of 2Aces01Double faults20
2026-09-25	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	A. Bublik	1.56	62%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-3 JodarBublikPoints won61%39%Serve points won71%47%Return points won53%29%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved2 of 35 of 9Aces11Double faults33
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	C. Garin	1.25	77%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-2 JodarGarinPoints won63%37%Serve points won70%43%Return points won57%30%Games held6 of 71 of 7Break points saved0 of 16 of 12Aces00Double faults05

Common questions

Who is favourite, Valentin Vacherot or Rafael Jodar?

Rafael Jodar is favourite at 1.35, which is a 72% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar?

Valentin Vacherot is 3.46 and Rafael Jodar is 1.35, the prices we recorded for the Basel match.

Who will win Valentin Vacherot vs Rafael Jodar?

Our model makes it Valentin Vacherot to win a set (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Michelsen v Fils Shelton v Kym Altmaier v Lehecka