ATPHard (Indoor)Basel2026-10-29 10:00
Alex Michelsen v Arthur Fils
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanA. Michelsen to win2.63
A. Michelsen is 6-4 over the last ten and 30-15 on hard this season. A. Fils is 7-3 over the last ten and 33-11 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Michelsen 0-1.
The pick is A. Michelsen to win. We make it a 40% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.53 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Michelsen | A. Fils | |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Ranking | 10 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WLWWL | Last 5 | WLWLW |
| +0.5 | V the odds | -0.9 |
| 38-23 | Season | 40-15 |
| 30-15 | Hard 2026 | 33-11 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
A. Michelsen2.6336%
A. FilsFAV1.5064%
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
A. Michelsen0
A. Fils1
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Brussels | A. FilsvA. Michelsen | 6-4 7-6 |
This season & this event
A. Michelsen
A. Fils
38-23
30-15
Did not play
Did not play
2026 record
2026 on hard
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
40-15
33-11
Did not play
Lost SF to B. Shelton
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Alex Michelsen
USA
Arthur Fils
France
35
22
USA
35–22
1
26–13
6–7
3–2
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
10
22
France
37–13
2
27–10
9–2
1–1
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Michelsen — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1.60 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-3 MichelsenZandschulpPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%57%Return points won43%38%Games held12 of 1510 of 15Break points saved4 of 77 of 12Aces48Double faults29 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | A. Fils | 2.69 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-7 MichelsenFilsPoints won47%53%Serve points won60%67%Return points won33%40%Games held8 of 119 of 11Break points saved1 of 42 of 4Aces26Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-22 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | D. Goffin | 1.07 | 90% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MichelsenGoffinPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%57%Return points won43%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved3 of 42 of 5Aces85Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | A. Guerrieri | 1.24 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-2 MichelsenGuerrieriPoints won62%38%Serve points won69%46%Return points won54%31%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved0 of 02 of 6Aces30Double faults15 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1.52 | 64% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 4-6 MichelsenZandschulpPoints won46%54%Serve points won63%70%Return points won30%37%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 35 of 5Aces53Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 5.79 | 83% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-4 1-6 MichelsenAlcarazPoints won46%54%Serve points won53%60%Return points won40%47%Games held8 of 1410 of 15Break points saved7 of 138 of 13Aces05Double faults45 | |||||||
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2.36 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-5 6-3 5-7 3-6 6-7 MichelsenTiafoePoints won50%50%Serve points won62%60%Return points won40%38%Games held19 of 2719 of 27Break points saved9 of 1715 of 23Aces2110Double faults94 | |||||||
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. M. Etcheverry | 1.37 | 71% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 6-4 MichelsenEtcheverryPoints won52%48%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held15 of 1613 of 16Break points saved4 of 51 of 4Aces126Double faults70 | |||||||
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 1.53 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 6-3 MichelsenAguilarPoints won53%47%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held14 of 1512 of 16Break points saved4 of 53 of 7Aces68Double faults17 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | B. Nakashima | 2.99 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 6-4 MichelsenNakashimaPoints won56%44%Serve points won75%63%Return points won37%25%Games held14 of 1510 of 14Break points saved2 of 33 of 7Aces410Double faults44 | |||||||
A. Fils — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Basel | Hard (Indoor) | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1.29 | 75% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 7-5 FilsPerricardPoints won52%48%Serve points won74%66%Return points won34%26%Games held12 of 1211 of 12Break points saved1 of 112 of 13Aces521Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | J-L. Struff | 1.23 | 80% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-7 FilsStruffPoints won49%51%Serve points won68%72%Return points won28%32%Games held14 of 1715 of 17Break points saved7 of 104 of 6Aces1715Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Brussels | Hard (Indoor) | A. Michelsen | 1.52 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 FilsMichelsenPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%60%Return points won40%33%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved2 of 41 of 4Aces62Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1.23 | 79% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 4-6 FilsZandschulpPoints won47%53%Serve points won61%65%Return points won35%39%Games held8 of 1110 of 11Break points saved3 of 68 of 9Aces66Double faults03 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | P. Kotov | 1.10 | 88% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 FilsKotovPoints won58%42%Serve points won73%59%Return points won41%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved2 of 25 of 7Aces84Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | V. Vacherot | 1.25 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-4 4-6 FilsVacherotPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%62%Return points won38%41%Games held12 of 1613 of 16Break points saved5 of 95 of 8Aces614Double faults84 | |||||||
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 1.36 | 72% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 7-5 FilsTiafoePoints won55%45%Serve points won74%64%Return points won36%26%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces104Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | L. van Assche | 1.16 | 82% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-2 FilsAsschePoints won58%42%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved3 of 37 of 10Aces124Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-09-29 | Tokyo | Hard | K. Majchrzak | 1.19 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-1 FilsMajchrzakPoints won56%44%Serve points won69%58%Return points won42%31%Games held11 of 128 of 12Break points saved1 of 20 of 4Aces84Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Damm | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set2-6 6-1 6-1 FilsDammPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%54%Return points won46%29%Games held9 of 116 of 11Break points saved1 of 34 of 9Aces68Double faults20 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alex Michelsen or Arthur Fils?
Arthur Fils is favourite at 1.50, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils?
Alex Michelsen is 2.63 and Arthur Fils is 1.50, the prices we recorded for the Basel match.
What is the head-to-head between Alex Michelsen and Arthur Fils?
They have met 1 time and Arthur Fils leads 1-0.
Who will win Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils?
Our model makes it Alex Michelsen to win at 2.63 (Lean confidence).