ChallengerTaranto (Italy) · 1/8-finals2026-11-05 10:00

Sumit Nagal v Hugo Grenier

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

S. Nagal to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.38 or bigger · our chance 73% · market 44/56, us 47/53

S. Nagal is 4-6 over the last ten. H. Grenier is 5-5 over the last ten.

The pick is S. Nagal to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 73% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.38 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Nagal		H. Grenier
281	Ranking	269
4-6	Last 10	5-5
WLWWL	Last 5	WLLWW
+0.2	V the odds	-0.7
26-30	Season	18-27
-	Surface	-
1	Last 7 days	1
3d	Days rest	3d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. Nagal2.1044%

H. GrenierFAV1.6656%

Market says56% Grenier

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. NagalWLWWL

H. GrenierWLLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

S. Nagal

H. Grenier

26-30

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on surface

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

18-27

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Sumit Nagal

India

Hugo Grenier

France

281

India

23–29

5–6

18–19

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

269

France

15–24

15–18

0–4

0–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Nagal — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Taranto (Italy)	—	G. Kravchenko		1.89	51%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 NagalKravchenkoPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%53%Return points won47%28%Games held8 of 106 of 10Break points saved0 of 26 of 10Aces30Double faults34
2026-10-23	Lisbon	Clay	A. Ritschard		2.66	64%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 2-6 NagalRitschardPoints won43%57%Serve points won53%71%Return points won29%47%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved8 of 120 of 1Aces16Double faults20
2026-10-21	Lisbon	Clay	B. Hassan	RET	1.63	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-0 NagalHassanPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held5 of 74 of 7Break points saved3 of 56 of 9Aces04Double faults13
2026-10-20	Lisbon	Clay	A. Sanchez Quilez		2.00	52%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 NagalQuilezPoints won63%37%Serve points won80%52%Return points won48%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 04 of 7Aces12Double faults11
2026-10-14	Maia	Clay (Indoor)	L. Mikrut		3.88	75%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 NagalMikrutPoints won40%60%Serve points won57%75%Return points won25%43%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved1 of 40 of 0Aces02Double faults02
2026-10-12	Maia	Clay (Indoor)	H. Rocha		3.68	74%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-5 7-6 NagalRochaPoints won48%52%Serve points won58%62%Return points won38%42%Games held12 of 1613 of 17Break points saved0 of 45 of 9Aces33Double faults21
2026-10-05	Braga	Clay	L. Mikrut		3.69	74%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 NagalMikrutPoints won41%59%Serve points won49%67%Return points won33%51%Games held4 of 97 of 9Break points saved1 of 64 of 6Aces00Double faults31
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	S. Kwon		3.50	73%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 NagalKwonPoints won38%62%Serve points won51%79%Return points won21%49%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved8 of 132 of 2Aces15Double faults33
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	H. Chung		1.49	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 5-7 NagalChungPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held10 of 1510 of 15Break points saved6 of 113 of 8Aces33Double faults84
2026-08-25	US Open	Hard	A. Gea		6.24	85%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 NagalGeaPoints won46%54%Serve points won65%68%Return points won32%35%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved0 of 28 of 9Aces16Double faults23

H. Grenier — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Taranto (Italy)	—	M. Moeller	1.60	60%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 GrenierMoellerPoints won53%47%Serve points won59%54%Return points won46%41%Games held9 of 116 of 10Break points saved3 of 52 of 6Aces70Double faults62
2026-10-27	Brest	Hard	M. Kouame	3.32	71%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 GrenierKouamePoints won47%53%Serve points won60%69%Return points won31%40%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved7 of 90 of 1Aces53Double faults53
2026-10-23	M25 Redbridge (United Kingdom)	Hard	P. Jubb	2.00	52%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-1 6-7 GrenierJubbPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held8 of 139 of 14Break points saved5 of 108 of 13
2026-10-22	M25 Redbridge (United Kingdom)	Hard	M. Walters	—	—	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 GrenierWaltersPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%62%Return points won38%38%Games held10 of 1210 of 14Break points saved8 of 100 of 2
2026-10-20	M25 Redbridge (United Kingdom)	Hard	P. A. Tailleu	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 GrenierTailleuPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%61%Return points won39%33%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved6 of 63 of 6
2026-10-12	Roanne	Hard (Indoor)	B. Bonzi	3.75	74%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 1-6 3-6 GrenierBonziPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%67%Return points won33%41%Games held9 of 1413 of 14Break points saved8 of 134 of 5Aces155Double faults63
2026-10-05	Villena	Clay	G. Kravchenko	1.44	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 GrenierKravchenkoPoints won45%55%Serve points won65%83%Return points won17%35%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved7 of 81 of 1Aces41Double faults20
2026-10-04	Villena	Clay	B. Pujol Navarro	1.02	89%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 GrenierNavarroPoints won57%43%Serve points won75%59%Return points won41%25%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved0 of 17 of 10Aces50Double faults34
2026-10-02	Porto	Clay	I. Montes-De La Torre	—	—	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-7 GrenierTorrePoints won45%55%Serve points won58%66%Return points won34%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved2 of 510 of 11Aces50Double faults67
2026-10-01	Porto	Clay	T. Pereira	1.70	57%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 GrenierPereiraPoints won51%49%Serve points won68%71%Return points won29%32%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 20 of 1Aces130Double faults61

Common questions

Who is favourite, Sumit Nagal or Hugo Grenier?

Hugo Grenier is favourite at 1.66, which is a 56% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier?

Sumit Nagal is 2.10 and Hugo Grenier is 1.66, the prices we recorded for the Taranto (Italy) match.

Who will win Sumit Nagal vs Hugo Grenier?

Our model makes it Sumit Nagal to win a set (Lean confidence).

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