Quinn Vandecasteele v Daniil Ostapenkov
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWOND. Ostapenkov is 5-5 over the last ten and 30-18 on hard this season. Q. Vandecasteele is 6-4 over the last ten and 27-19 on hard this season. The head to head is Q. Vandecasteele 0-1.
The pick is D. Ostapenkov to win. We make it a 39% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.56 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| Q. Vandecasteele | D. Ostapenkov | |
|---|---|---|
| 459 | Ranking | 737 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| WLLWL | Last 5 | WLWWL |
| +0.5 | V the odds | -0.3 |
| 35-26 | Season | 31-19 |
| 27-19 | Hard 2026 | 30-18 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 1d | Days rest | 0d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Columbus | Q. VandecasteelevD. Ostapenkov | 0 - 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification | D. OstapenkovvQ. Vandecasteele | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
Q. Vandecasteele — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | D. Ostapenkov | 0 - 2 | 1.43 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-09-27 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | P. Stearns | 2 - 1 | 1.43 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification, Hard | — | D. Ostapenkov | 2 - 1 | 1.31 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-14 | Tiburon | Hard | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | 1.73 | 53% | LOST |
| 2026-09-13 | Tiburon | Hard | N. Zamora | 2 - 0 | 1.36 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | Winston-Salem | Hard | J. Duckworth | 0 - 2 | 3.52 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Winston-Salem | Hard | P. Herbert | 1 - 2 | 2.31 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | Winston-Salem | Hard | L. Tu | 0 - 2 | 1.77 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-08-14 | Brownsburg (Usa) - Qualification | Hard | T. Schoolkate | 1 - 2 | 2.82 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-13 | Brownsburg (Usa) - Qualification | Hard | A. Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | 3.02 | 68% | WON |
D. Ostapenkov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | R. Perot | 1 - 2 | 2.85 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | I. Palavestra | 0 - 2 | 1.30 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | Q. Vandecasteele | 0 - 2 | 2.62 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-21 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification | Hard | T. Legout | 2 - 0 | 3.84 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-09-20 | San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification, Hard | — | Q. Vandecasteele | 2 - 1 | 3.41 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Tiburon | Hard | G. Grumet | 0 - 2 | 1.17 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Tiburon | Hard | T. Legout | 2 - 0 | 3.17 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-08-09 | Astana | Hard | E. Agafonov | 0 - 0 RET | 1.32 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Istanbul 2 (Turkey) | Hard | F. Bax | 1 - 2 | 2.44 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Istanbul 2 (Turkey) | Hard | C. Bittoun | 1 - 2 | 1.55 | 62% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Quinn Vandecasteele or Daniil Ostapenkov?
Quinn Vandecasteele is favourite at 1.43, which is a 65% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Quinn Vandecasteele vs Daniil Ostapenkov?
Quinn Vandecasteele is 1.43 and Daniil Ostapenkov is 2.62, the prices we recorded for the Columbus match.
What is the head-to-head between Quinn Vandecasteele and Daniil Ostapenkov?
They have met 2 times and Daniil Ostapenkov leads 2-0.
Who will win Quinn Vandecasteele vs Daniil Ostapenkov?
Our model makes it Daniil Ostapenkov to win at 2.62 (Lean confidence).