ChallengerClayFlorence (Italy) - Qualification2026-10-21 10:00

Michele Ribecai v Max Houkes

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

M. Houkes to win1.80

Worth backing at 1.79 or bigger · our chance 56% · market 49/51, us 44/56

M. Houkes is 9-1 over the last ten and 39-18 on clay this season. M. Ribecai is 4-6 over the last ten and 19-18 on clay this season.

The pick is M. Houkes to win. We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.79 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Ribecai		M. Houkes
282	Ranking	245
4-6	Last 10	9-1
WLLWW	Last 5	WWWWW
-0.3	V the odds	+0.6
33-31	Season	50-23
19-18	Clay 2026	39-18
1	Last 7 days	1
2d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Ribecai1.8749%

M. HoukesFAV1.8051%

Market says51% Houkes

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. RibecaiWLLWW

M. HoukesWWWWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

M. Ribecai

M. Houkes

33-31

19-18

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

50-23

39-18

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Michele Ribecai

Italy

Max Houkes

Netherlands

282

Italy

32–30

14–13

18–17

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

245

Netherlands

0–1

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Ribecai — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	J. Vasami	RET	1.75	55%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-0 4-2 RibecaiVasamiPoints won58%42%Serve points won62%47%Return points won53%38%Games held8 of 115 of 11Break points saved5 of 82 of 8Aces13Double faults04
2026-10-12	Catania (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	R. M. Papoe		—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 RibecaiPapoePoints won46%54%Serve points won55%67%Return points won33%45%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved8 of 123 of 5Aces40Double faults00
2026-10-09	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	J. Forejtek		2.22	56%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-1 6-7 RibecaiForejtekPoints won49%51%Serve points won61%64%Return points won36%39%Games held10 of 1310 of 13Break points saved7 of 104 of 7Aces23Double faults11
2026-10-07	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	Z. Kolar		2.14	55%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-1 RibecaiKolarPoints won64%36%Serve points won69%40%Return points won60%31%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved4 of 46 of 11Aces01Double faults04
2026-10-05	Palermo (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	B. Sanchez Martinez		1.60	60%	WON
Games in each set5-7 7-5 6-0 RibecaiMartinezPoints won55%45%Serve points won59%49%Return points won51%41%Games held10 of 157 of 15Break points saved4 of 98 of 16Aces32Double faults12
2026-09-20	St. Tropez	Hard	M. Domenc		1.20	79%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 RibecaiDomencPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%71%Return points won29%36%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved0 of 20 of 0Aces06Double faults20
2026-09-14	Rennes	Hard (Indoor)	T. Droguet		4.33	79%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 RibecaiDroguetPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%68%Return points won32%42%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved12 of 142 of 3Aces310Double faults11
2026-09-08	Istanbul	Clay	J. D. Hara Friend		2.67	64%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 RibecaiFriendPoints won48%52%Serve points won52%56%Return points won44%48%Games held8 of 148 of 14Break points saved2 of 85 of 11Aces18Double faults41
2026-09-03	Mallorca	Hard	J. Pinnington Jones		2.35	61%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 0-6 RibecaiJonesPoints won30%70%Serve points won24%65%Return points won35%76%Games held0 of 75 of 6Break points saved2 of 91 of 2Aces04Double faults33
2026-09-02	Mallorca	Hard	S. Gueymard Wayenburg		1.85	52%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-2 6-2 RibecaiWayenburgPoints won54%46%Serve points won62%54%Return points won46%38%Games held9 of 127 of 13Break points saved5 of 84 of 10Aces39Double faults64

M. Houkes — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	F. Agamenone		1.36	71%	WON
Games in each set7-6 5-7 6-1 HoukesAgamenonePoints won53%47%Serve points won61%54%Return points won46%39%Games held11 of 169 of 15Break points saved4 of 93 of 9Aces33Double faults43
2026-10-11	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	D. Javia		1.10	87%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-7 7-5 HoukesJaviaPoints won56%44%Serve points won72%57%Return points won43%28%Games held14 of 1612 of 17Break points saved2 of 47 of 12
2026-10-10	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	C. Hemery		1.77	54%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-2 6-2 HoukesHemeryPoints won59%41%Serve points won76%56%Return points won44%24%Games held12 of 139 of 13Break points saved5 of 62 of 6
2026-10-09	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	A. Beckley	RET	1.15	83%	WON
Games in each set6-2 3-1 HoukesBeckleyPoints won62%38%Serve points won80%57%Return points won43%20%Games held6 of 63 of 6Break points saved0 of 02 of 5
2026-10-08	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	M. Plunger		1.09	88%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 HoukesPlungerPoints won57%43%Serve points won69%53%Return points won47%31%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved1 of 22 of 5
2026-10-07	M25 Kigali 2	Clay	R. Alujas		1.01	97%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-3 HoukesAlujasPoints won59%41%Serve points won68%52%Return points won48%32%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved1 of 10 of 3
2026-10-03	M25 Kigali	Clay	B. Lock		1.11	86%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-3 2-6 HoukesLockPoints won49%51%Serve points won59%60%Return points won40%41%Games held10 of 1512 of 16Break points saved6 of 107 of 11
2026-10-02	M25 Kigali	Clay	A. Beckley		1.11	86%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-2 7-6 HoukesBeckleyPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%54%Return points won46%38%Games held10 of 1410 of 17Break points saved1 of 57 of 13
2026-10-01	M25 Kigali	Clay	A. Gatoto		1.02	92%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 HoukesGatotoPoints won65%35%Serve points won78%47%Return points won53%22%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved0 of 01 of 6
2026-09-30	M25 Kigali	Clay	D. Suresh		1.03	93%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-2 HoukesSureshPoints won67%33%Serve points won87%47%Return points won53%13%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved2 of 28 of 12

Common questions

Who is favourite, Michele Ribecai or Max Houkes?

Max Houkes is favourite at 1.80, which is a 51% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Michele Ribecai vs Max Houkes?

Michele Ribecai is 1.87 and Max Houkes is 1.80, the prices we recorded for the Florence (Italy) match.

Who will win Michele Ribecai vs Max Houkes?

Our model makes it Max Houkes to win at 1.80 (Solid confidence).

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