M. Tobon v Tomas Barrios Vera
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTT. Barrios Vera is 7-3 over the last ten and 15-14 on clay this season. M. Tobon is 5-5 over the last ten and 16-13 on clay this season. T. Barrios Vera has played 4 matches in seven days.
The pick is T. Barrios Vera to win. We make it a 79% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.27 or bigger. At 1.20 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Tobon | T. Barrios Vera | |
|---|---|---|
| 506 | Ranking | 135 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WLLWL | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| -0.2 | V the odds | +1.3 |
| 26-23 | Season | 28-27 |
| 16-13 | Clay 2026 | 15-14 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 1d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | Antofagasta | M. TobonvT. Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Tobon — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Antofagasta | Clay | T. Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | 4.84 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-10-06 | Antofagasta | Clay | T. Cigarran | 2 - 1 | 1.26 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | J. B. Torres | 1 - 2 | 2.56 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-09-10 | Istanbul | Clay | E. Butvilas | 0 - 2 | 3.35 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-08 | Istanbul | Clay | K. Kirci | 2 - 0 | 1.09 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | R. Pacheco Mendez | 0 - 2 | 3.62 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | J. P. Ficovich | 0 - 2 | 1.85 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | P. O. Fellin | 0 - 2 | 1.52 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-08-17 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos | 0 - 2 | 1.38 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-16 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | L. Claverie | 2 - 1 | 1.64 | 56% | WON |
T. Barrios Vera — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Antofagasta | Clay | M. Tobon | 2 - 1 | 1.20 | 80% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Antofagasta | Clay | F. Roncadelli | 0 - 2 | 1.36 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Curitiba | Clay | G. I. Justo | 2 - 1 | 1.45 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Curitiba | Clay | M. Pucinelli de Almeida | 1 - 2 | 1.85 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Curitiba | Clay | J. B. Torres | 0 - 2 | 1.33 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | L. J. Rodriguez | 0 - 2 | 1.30 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | A. Blockx | 3 - 0 | 5.52 | 82% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | D. Rincon | 0 - 2 | 1.86 | 51% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | G. A. Olivieri | 0 - 2 | 1.24 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | J. C. Prado Angelo | 1 - 2 | 1.64 | 58% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, M. Tobon or Tomas Barrios Vera?
Tomas Barrios Vera is favourite at 1.20, which is a 80% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for M. Tobon vs Tomas Barrios Vera?
M. Tobon is 4.84 and Tomas Barrios Vera is 1.20, the prices we recorded for the Antofagasta match.
What is the head-to-head between M. Tobon and Tomas Barrios Vera?
They have met 1 time and M. Tobon leads 1-0.
Who will win M. Tobon vs Tomas Barrios Vera?
Our model makes it Tomas Barrios Vera to win at 1.20 (Lean confidence).