M. Tobon v Thiago Cigarran
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONT. Cigarran is 6-4 over the last ten and 30-26 on clay this season. M. Tobon is 4-6 over the last ten and 15-13 on clay this season. T. Cigarran retired from a match in the last month.
The pick is T. Cigarran to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 58% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.73 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Tobon | T. Cigarran | |
|---|---|---|
| 501 | Ranking | 797 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| LLWLW | Last 5 | WWLWL |
| -0.4 | V the odds | +0.9 |
| 25-23 | Season | 31-27 |
| 15-13 | Clay 2026 | 30-26 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 7d | Days rest | 1d |
| 0 | Wins here | 2 |
| Clear | Fitness | retired |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Antofagasta | M. TobonvT. Cigarran | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Tobon — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Antofagasta | Clay | T. Cigarran | 2 - 1 | 1.26 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | J. B. Torres | 1 - 2 | 2.56 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-09-10 | Istanbul | Clay | E. Butvilas | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-08 | Istanbul | Clay | K. Kirci | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | R. Pacheco Mendez | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | J. P. Ficovich | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | Kingston 2 (Jamaica) - Qualification | Hard | P. O. Fellin | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-17 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-16 | Kingston (Jamaica) | Hard | L. Claverie | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-07-26 | Los Cabos | Hard | B. Tomic | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
T. Cigarran — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Antofagasta | Clay | M. Tobon | 2 - 1 | 4.02 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Antofagasta | Clay | N. Kicker | 0 - 1 RET | 6.01 | 84% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Antofagasta | Clay | A. Matta | 0 - 2 | 1.03 | 91% | WON |
| 2026-09-21 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | T. Martinez | 0 - 1 RET | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-20 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | S. Pesino | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | Seville | Clay | T. Pereira | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-04 | M25 Casablanca (Morocco) | Clay | K. Bennani | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-03 | M25 Casablanca (Morocco) | Clay | I. Haddouch | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | M25 Casablanca (Morocco), Clay | — | F. Rengifo | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-29 | M15 Allershausen | Clay | J. Maute | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, M. Tobon or Thiago Cigarran?
M. Tobon is favourite at 1.26, which is a 76% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for M. Tobon vs Thiago Cigarran?
M. Tobon is 1.26 and Thiago Cigarran is 4.02, the prices we recorded for the Antofagasta match.
What is the head-to-head between M. Tobon and Thiago Cigarran?
They have met 1 time and M. Tobon leads 1-0.
Who will win M. Tobon vs Thiago Cigarran?
Our model makes it Thiago Cigarran to win a set (Lean confidence).