ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-10-26 17:30

Jakub Mensik v Lukas Neumayer

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

L. Neumayer to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.95 or bigger · our chance 51% · market 83/17, us 78/22

L. Neumayer is 7-3 over the last ten and 14-10 on hard this season. J. Mensik is 5-5 over the last ten and 28-15 on hard this season.

The pick is L. Neumayer to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 51% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.95 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

J. Mensik		L. Neumayer
14	Ranking	180
5-5	Last 10	7-3
LWWLW	Last 5	WWLWL
-1.1	V the odds	+1.6
37-21	Season	47-27
28-15	Hard 2026	14-10
0	Last 7 days	2
12d	Days rest	1d
0	Wins here	2
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

J. MensikFAV1.1483%

L. Neumayer5.5017%

Market says83% Mensik

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

J. MensikLWWLW

L. NeumayerWWLWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

J. Mensik

L. Neumayer

37-21

28-15

Did not play

Lost QF to A. De Minaur

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

47-27

14-10

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

Lukas Neumayer

Austria

Czech Republic

33–18

23–11

8–4

1–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

180

Austria

44–26

9–7

34–17

0–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

J. Mensik — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	A. Gea	1.60	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 MensikGeaPoints won48%52%Serve points won70%72%Return points won28%30%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved3 of 42 of 2Aces611Double faults01
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	F. Cerundolo	1.65	59%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-2 MensikCerundoloPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%61%Return points won39%32%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved6 of 72 of 5Aces85Double faults02
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	M. Kecmanovic	1.30	75%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 MensikKecmanovicPoints won57%43%Serve points won79%63%Return points won37%21%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 00 of 3Aces144Double faults10
2026-10-03	Beijing	Hard	F. Cerundolo	1.52	64%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 MensikCerundoloPoints won45%55%Serve points won60%72%Return points won28%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved6 of 90 of 0Aces30Double faults11
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	A. Bublik	1.57	62%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 MensikBublikPoints won54%46%Serve points won74%62%Return points won38%26%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 35 of 7Aces107Double faults21
2026-09-25	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	B. Nakashima	1.68	57%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-3 7-10 MensikNakashimaPoints won47%53%Serve points won67%72%Return points won28%33%Games held6 of 87 of 8Break points saved1 of 31 of 2Aces23Double faults11
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	B. Shelton	2.24	57%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-4 6-3 MensikSheltonPoints won56%44%Serve points won84%66%Return points won34%16%Games held15 of 1613 of 15Break points saved0 of 15 of 7Aces94Double faults21
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group	- Play Offs	L. Tien	1.62	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 MensikTienPoints won42%58%Serve points won56%72%Return points won28%44%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved3 of 73 of 4Aces41Double faults42
2026-09-06	US Open	Hard	L. Tien	2.26	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-1 7-6 3-6 4-6 MensikTienPoints won51%49%Serve points won66%61%Return points won39%34%Games held17 of 2418 of 23Break points saved7 of 149 of 14Aces234Double faults88
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	J. Rodionov	1.13	86%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-2 6-3 MensikRodionovPoints won55%45%Serve points won77%62%Return points won38%23%Games held17 of 1813 of 17Break points saved1 of 29 of 13Aces1415Double faults65

L. Neumayer — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-25	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	T. Droguet	3.25	70%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 NeumayerDroguetPoints won55%45%Serve points won77%66%Return points won34%23%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved1 of 13 of 4Aces58Double faults03
2026-10-24	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	V. Kopriva	1.98	51%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 NeumayerKoprivaPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved6 of 72 of 6Aces14Double faults21
2026-10-15	Maia	Clay (Indoor)	M. Dodig	2.82	66%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-4 3-6 NeumayerDodigPoints won47%53%Serve points won58%66%Return points won34%42%Games held10 of 1511 of 14Break points saved3 of 81 of 4Aces216Double faults12
2026-10-12	Maia	Clay (Indoor)	E. Moller	1.81	53%	WON
Games in each set6-4 4-6 6-2 NeumayerMollerPoints won54%46%Serve points won60%54%Return points won46%40%Games held10 of 148 of 14Break points saved3 of 71 of 7Aces34Double faults12
2026-10-10	Braga	Clay	M. Dodig	2.27	57%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 NeumayerDodigPoints won38%62%Serve points won48%74%Return points won26%52%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved5 of 90 of 0Aces15Double faults21
2026-10-09	Braga	Clay	M. Alcala Gurri	2.14	55%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-2 6-2 NeumayerGurriPoints won55%45%Serve points won53%44%Return points won56%47%Games held9 of 145 of 14Break points saved6 of 117 of 16Aces31Double faults06
2026-10-08	Braga	Clay	O. Wallin	1.39	69%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 NeumayerWallinPoints won61%39%Serve points won71%49%Return points won51%29%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved5 of 55 of 9Aces23Double faults10
2026-10-05	Braga	Clay	F. Broska	1.27	75%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 6-2 NeumayerBroskaPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%60%Return points won40%33%Games held13 of 1410 of 13Break points saved5 of 613 of 16Aces48Double faults45
2026-09-25	Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	L. Mikrut	2.47	61%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 NeumayerMikrutPoints won46%54%Serve points won55%61%Return points won39%45%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved1 of 54 of 6Aces08Double faults12
2026-09-23	Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	J. C. Martin Manzano	—	—	WON
Games in each set0-6 6-4 6-1 NeumayerManzanoPoints won51%49%Serve points won55%51%Return points won49%45%Games held6 of 116 of 12Break points saved3 of 84 of 10Aces25Double faults05

Common questions

Who is favourite, Jakub Mensik or Lukas Neumayer?

Jakub Mensik is favourite at 1.14, which is a 83% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer?

Jakub Mensik is 1.14 and Lukas Neumayer is 5.50, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

Who will win Jakub Mensik vs Lukas Neumayer?

Our model makes it Lukas Neumayer to win a set (Solid confidence).

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