Jacob Fearnley v Hugo Gaston
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanJ. Fearnley is 7-3 over the last ten and 19-17 on hard this season. H. Gaston is 6-4 over the last ten and 17-15 on hard this season. J. Fearnley retired from a match in the last month. J. Fearnley has played 4 matches in seven days. H. Gaston took a medical timeout on 2026-10-05.
The pick is J. Fearnley to win. We make it a 66% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.53 or bigger. At 1.44 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| J. Fearnley | H. Gaston | |
|---|---|---|
| 101 | Ranking | 87 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WWWWL | Last 5 | LWWLL |
| +1.4 | V the odds | +0.9 |
| 34-24 | Season | 33-28 |
| 19-17 | Hard 2026 | 17-15 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 2d | Days rest | 3d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| retired | Fitness | MTO |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
J. Fearnley — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Olbia | Hard | L. Nardi | 2 - 0 | 1.45 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-16 | Olbia | Hard | M. Mrva | 2 - 0 | 1.37 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-10-15 | Olbia | Hard | J. Kumstat | 2 - 0 | 1.44 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-10-13 | Olbia | Hard | G. Loffhagen | 2 - 0 | 1.74 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Porto | Clay | I. Montes-De La Torre | 1 - 0 RET | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Porto | Clay | A. Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | 1.31 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | T. M. Etcheverry | 3 - 1 | 2.22 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | M. Landaluce | 2 - 3 | 2.04 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | J. Rodionov | 1 - 2 | 1.77 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | L. Pavlovic | 2 - 1 | 1.24 | 77% | WON |
H. Gaston — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Roanne | Hard (Indoor) | N. Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | 1.75 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-10-14 | Roanne | Hard (Indoor) | P. Herbert | 2 - 1 | 1.40 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Roanne | Hard (Indoor) | D. Jade | 2 - 0 | 1.18 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | 1.68 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-27 | Hangzhou | Hard | A. Rublev | 1 - 2 | 4.38 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-09-26 | Hangzhou | Hard | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | 2.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | S. Shimabukuro | 0 - 2 | 1.71 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | D. Medvedev | 3 - 0 | 6.68 | 86% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | C. Smith | 2 - 1 | 1.72 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | 1.67 | 57% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Jacob Fearnley or Hugo Gaston?
Jacob Fearnley is favourite at 1.44, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston?
Jacob Fearnley is 1.44 and Hugo Gaston is 2.75, the prices we recorded for the Brussels match.
Who will win Jacob Fearnley vs Hugo Gaston?
Our model makes it Jacob Fearnley to win at 1.44 (Lean confidence).