Felipe Meligeni Alves v Juan Pablo Varillas
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTJ. P. Varillas is 7-3 over the last ten and 26-19 on clay this season. F. Meligeni Alves is 5-5 over the last ten and 18-10 on clay this season. The head to head is F. Meligeni Alves 1-2.
The pick is J. P. Varillas to win. We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.81 or bigger. At 1.79 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| F. Meligeni Alves | J. P. Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| 465 | Ranking | 190 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LWLLL | Last 5 | LWWWW |
| -0.3 | V the odds | -0.2 |
| 23-16 | Season | 34-23 |
| 18-10 | Clay 2026 | 26-19 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 5d | Days rest | 10d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | Concepcion | J. P. VarillasvF. Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 |
| 2025-02-23 | Santiago | F. Meligeni AlvesvJ. P. Varillas | 2 - 0 |
| 2023-11-08 | Lima 2 Challenger Men | J. P. VarillasvF. Meligeni Alves | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
F. Meligeni Alves — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Antofagasta | Clay | J. P. Varillas | 2 - 0 | 2.04 | 53% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Curitiba | Clay | G. Heide | 2 - 0 | 3.35 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Curitiba | Clay | C. M. Zarate | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Genova | Clay | H. Dellien | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | Mallorca | Hard | A. Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | D. Svrcina | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Cancun 2 | Hard | M. Kouame | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-18 | Cancun 2 | Hard | D. Blanch | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-17 | Cancun 2 | Hard | L. Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-08 | M25 Londrina | Clay | P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
J. P. Varillas — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Antofagasta | Clay | F. Meligeni Alves | 2 - 0 | 1.79 | 53% | LOST |
| 2026-09-25 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | J. Aguilar Cardozo | 2 - 0 | 2.33 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | M. A. Dellien Velasco | 1 - 2 | 1.18 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | T. Farjat | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | H. J. Escurra Isnardi | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | D. Vallejo | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-11 | Genova | Clay | T. Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-10 | Genova | Clay | F. Passaro | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Genova | Clay | F. Arnaboldi | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | Como | Clay | M. Dodig | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Felipe Meligeni Alves or Juan Pablo Varillas?
Juan Pablo Varillas is favourite at 1.79, which is a 53% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Felipe Meligeni Alves is 2.04 and Juan Pablo Varillas is 1.79, the prices we recorded for the Antofagasta match.
What is the head-to-head between Felipe Meligeni Alves and Juan Pablo Varillas?
They have met 3 times and Juan Pablo Varillas leads 2-1.
Who will win Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model makes it Juan Pablo Varillas to win at 1.79 (Lean confidence).