Elias Ymer v Mattia Bellucci
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONM. Bellucci is 7-3 over the last ten and 22-18 on hard this season. E. Ymer is 3-7 over the last ten and 14-19 on hard this season. The head to head is E. Ymer 1-2.
The pick is M. Bellucci to win 2-0. We make it a 51% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.98 or bigger. At 1.66 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| E. Ymer | M. Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| 192 | Ranking | 86 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LLWLL | Last 5 | LWWLW |
| -0.6 | V the odds | +0.0 |
| 20-24 | Season | 35-28 |
| 14-19 | Hard 2026 | 22-18 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 7d | Days rest | 5d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Jinan | E. YmervM. Bellucci | 0 - 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | M. BelluccivE. Ymer | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-08-10 | Cary Challenger Men | M. BelluccivE. Ymer | 2 - 0 |
| 2023-10-05 | Alicante Challenger Men | M. BelluccivE. Ymer | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
E. Ymer — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Jinan | Hard | M. Bellucci | 0 - 2 | 4.21 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | M. Bellucci | 2 - 1 | 6.93 | 86% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Cina | 1 - 2 | 3.70 | 74% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | T. Atmane | 1 - 1 RET | 4.08 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Galarneau | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-18 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | M. Sharipov | 0 - 2 | 2.73 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-16 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | L. Castelnuovo | 2 - 0 | 1.44 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | S. Pankin | 2 - 1 | 1.41 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Shanghai | Hard | P. Kotov | 1 - 2 | 1.92 | 50% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | Zhangjiagang | Hard | Y. H. Hsu | 1 - 0 RET | 2.42 | 60% | LOST |
M. Bellucci — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Jinan | Hard | E. Ymer | 0 - 2 | 1.26 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | Y. Zhou | 1 - 2 | 1.29 | 75% | LOST |
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | 1.46 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | E. Ymer | 2 - 1 | 1.11 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Jingshan | Hard | L. Harris | 1 - 2 | 2.05 | 53% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Hard | Y. Erel | 0 - 2 | 1.25 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | 1.87 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | 1.53 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | K. Saitoh | 2 - 0 | 1.04 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Peliwo | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Elias Ymer or Mattia Bellucci?
Mattia Bellucci is favourite at 1.26, which is a 77% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci?
Elias Ymer is 4.21 and Mattia Bellucci is 1.26, the prices we recorded for the Jinan match.
What is the head-to-head between Elias Ymer and Mattia Bellucci?
They have met 4 times and Mattia Bellucci leads 3-1.
Who will win Elias Ymer vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model makes it Mattia Bellucci to win 2-0 at 1.66 (Lean confidence).