Denis Shapovalov v Alejandro Tabilo
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
StrongWOND. Shapovalov is 7-3 over the last ten and 18-14 on hard this season. A. Tabilo is 4-6 over the last ten and 16-14 on hard this season.
The pick is D. Shapovalov to win. We make it a 63% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.58 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Shapovalov | A. Tabilo | |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Ranking | 28 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| WLWWW | Last 5 | WLLLW |
| +1.2 | V the odds | +0.1 |
| 20-20 | Season | 38-26 |
| 18-14 | Hard 2026 | 16-14 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 3d | Days rest | 3d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | D. ShapovalovvA. Tabilo | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Shapovalov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 1 - 0 RET | 6.89 | 86% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | 1.70 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | S. Shimabukuro | 2 - 0 | 1.30 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Mannarino | 1 - 2 | 1.42 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | Chengdu | Hard | V. Kopriva | 0 - 2 | 1.30 | 75% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 0 - 2 | 1.70 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | L. van Assche | 3 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | M. Kecmanovic | 1 - 3 | — | — | WON |
A. Tabilo — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | 2.23 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | T. Paul | 2 - 0 | 3.41 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Mannarino | 0 - 2 | 1.59 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | A. Zverev | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | A. Popyrin | 1 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | Y. Hanfmann | 1 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-17 | Cincinnati | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Denis Shapovalov or Alejandro Tabilo?
Denis Shapovalov is favourite at 1.70, which is a 57% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Denis Shapovalov is 1.70 and Alejandro Tabilo is 2.23, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Denis Shapovalov and Alejandro Tabilo?
They have met 1 time and Denis Shapovalov leads 1-0.
Who will win Denis Shapovalov vs Alejandro Tabilo?
Our model makes it Denis Shapovalov to win at 1.74 (Strong confidence).