Carlos Alcaraz v Matteo Arnaldi
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONC. Alcaraz is 8-2 over the last ten and 23-3 on hard this season. M. Arnaldi is 3-7 over the last ten and 3-8 on hard this season. The head to head is C. Alcaraz 2-0.
The pick is C. Alcaraz to win. We make it a 90% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.11 or bigger. At 1.06 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Alcaraz | M. Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ranking | 106 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| WWLWW | Last 5 | WLLLW |
| +0.4 | V the odds | +0.5 |
| 29-4 | Season | 19-16 |
| 23-3 | Hard 2026 | 3-8 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 3d | Days rest | 3d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Defending title | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | C. AlcarazvM. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-03-09 | ATP Indian Wells | M. ArnaldivC. Alcaraz | 1 - 2 |
| 2023-09-04 | ATP US Open | C. AlcarazvM. Arnaldi | 3 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Shapovalov | 1 - 0 RET | 1.12 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | 1.06 | 90% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | 1.18 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | 1.31 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. Paul | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | Y. Wu | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | R. Safiullin | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | O. Virtanen | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
M. Arnaldi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | 9.50 | 90% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | 2.12 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | M. Landaluce | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-07 | Montreal | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | F. Marozsan | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-07-27 | Washington | Hard | L. Musetti | 0 - 1 RET | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-16 | Umag | clay | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-15 | Umag | clay | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | Q. Halys | 1 - 3 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Carlos Alcaraz or Matteo Arnaldi?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.06, which is a 90% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Carlos Alcaraz is 1.06 and Matteo Arnaldi is 9.50, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Carlos Alcaraz and Matteo Arnaldi?
They have met 3 times and Carlos Alcaraz leads 3-0.
Who will win Carlos Alcaraz vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model makes it Carlos Alcaraz to win at 1.06 (Lean confidence).