ChallengerHardGuangzhou · Quarter-finals2026-10-23 04:00

Yi Zhou v Andre Ilagan

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

A. Ilagan to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.41 or bigger · our chance 71% · market 58/42, us 56/44

A. Ilagan is 4-6 over the last ten and 40-27 on hard this season. Y. Zhou is 6-4 over the last ten and 17-17 on hard this season.

The pick is A. Ilagan to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 71% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.41 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

Y. Zhou		A. Ilagan
277	Ranking	203
6-4	Last 10	4-6
WWLWW	Last 5	WWLLL
+1.9	V the odds	-0.2
25-23	Season	46-29
17-17	Hard 2026	40-27
2	Last 7 days	2
2d	Days rest	2d
2	Wins here	2
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

Y. ZhouFAV1.6459%

A. Ilagan2.3441%

Market says59% Zhou

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Y. ZhouWWLWW

A. IlaganWWLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

Y. Zhou

A. Ilagan

25-23

17-17

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

46-29

40-27

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Yi Zhou

China

Andre Ilagan

USA

277

China

21–22

13–16

0–2

8–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

203

USA

44–29

41–28

—

3–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

Y. Zhou — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	Z. Zhang	1.77	54%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 ZhouZhangPoints won59%41%Serve points won85%64%Return points won36%15%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces79Double faults23
2026-10-20	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Matsuda	1.21	79%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-3 ZhouMatsudaPoints won64%36%Serve points won80%48%Return points won52%20%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved2 of 22 of 6Aces73Double faults23
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	H. Hurkacz	6.76	86%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-3 3-6 ZhouHurkaczPoints won46%54%Serve points won64%74%Return points won26%36%Games held10 of 1312 of 13Break points saved6 of 93 of 4Aces318Double faults21
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	L. Musetti	4.67	79%	WON
Games in each set7-6 3-6 7-6 ZhouMusettiPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%76%Return points won24%31%Games held15 of 1617 of 17Break points saved4 of 52 of 2Aces145Double faults03
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Bellucci	3.93	75%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 7-6 ZhouBellucciPoints won50%50%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held14 of 1614 of 15Break points saved9 of 115 of 6Aces126Double faults32
2026-09-28	Beijing	Hard	P. Carreno-Busta	—	—	LOST
Games in each set5-7 3-6 ZhouCarreno-BustaPoints won44%56%Serve points won56%66%Return points won34%44%Games held7 of 1010 of 11Break points saved3 of 64 of 5Aces63Double faults62
2026-09-23	Chengdu	Hard	J. M. Cerundolo	2.81	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 ZhouCerundoloPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%70%Return points won30%41%Games held7 of 109 of 9Break points saved3 of 63 of 3Aces57Double faults01
2026-09-11	Shanghai	Hard	I. Ivashka	2.15	55%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 ZhouIvashkaPoints won40%60%Serve points won54%82%Return points won18%46%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved4 of 70 of 0Aces34Double faults41
2026-09-09	Shanghai	Hard	J. Cui	1.52	64%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 ZhouCuiPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%64%Return points won36%24%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved3 of 43 of 5Aces146Double faults00
2026-09-08	Shanghai	Hard	S. Fomin	1.42	68%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-5 ZhouFominPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%61%Return points won39%27%Games held11 of 1210 of 12Break points saved1 of 26 of 8Aces145Double faults12

A. Ilagan — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Guangzhou	Hard	K. Sultanov	1.52	63%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 IlaganSultanovPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%55%Return points won45%29%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved3 of 41 of 5Aces1110Double faults11
2026-10-19	Guangzhou	Hard	M. Alkaya	1.52	63%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-1 IlaganAlkayaPoints won54%46%Serve points won75%62%Return points won38%25%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved4 of 57 of 10Aces820Double faults46
2026-10-14	Jinan	Hard	Y. Watanuki	2.22	56%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 IlaganWatanukiPoints won39%61%Serve points won50%76%Return points won24%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved7 of 112 of 2Aces211Double faults32
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	N. Basilashvili	2.96	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 7-6 5-7 IlaganBasilashviliPoints won50%50%Serve points won60%62%Return points won38%40%Games held11 of 1614 of 17Break points saved7 of 124 of 7Aces911Double faults37
2026-10-02	Jingshan	Hard	L. Harris	4.82	80%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 1-6 IlaganHarrisPoints won42%58%Serve points won50%67%Return points won33%50%Games held5 of 99 of 10Break points saved4 of 81 of 2Aces29Double faults12
2026-10-01	Jingshan	Hard	M. Sharipov	3.00	69%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-6 IlaganSharipovPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%65%Return points won35%24%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved2 of 26 of 8Aces414Double faults21
2026-09-29	Jingshan	Hard	M. Dellavedova	1.44	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 IlaganDellavedovaPoints won59%41%Serve points won83%54%Return points won46%17%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved1 of 28 of 12Aces64Double faults00
2026-09-22	Chengdu	Hard	P. Bar Biryukov	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-7 IlaganBiryukovPoints won50%50%Serve points won74%71%Return points won29%26%Games held12 of 1212 of 12Break points saved4 of 45 of 5Aces1217Double faults27
2026-09-15	Tiburon	Hard	B. Nakashima	1.57	60%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 7-6 6-7 IlaganNakashimaPoints won51%49%Serve points won68%67%Return points won33%32%Games held16 of 1817 of 18Break points saved5 of 74 of 5Aces1516Double faults56
2026-08-26	US Open	Hard	H. Gaston	2.22	57%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 3-6 IlaganGastonPoints won38%62%Serve points won48%76%Return points won24%52%Games held3 of 87 of 8Break points saved5 of 101 of 2Aces32Double faults51

Common questions

Who is favourite, Yi Zhou or Andre Ilagan?

Yi Zhou is favourite at 1.64, which is a 59% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Yi Zhou vs Andre Ilagan?

Yi Zhou is 1.64 and Andre Ilagan is 2.34, the prices we recorded for the Guangzhou match.

Who will win Yi Zhou vs Andre Ilagan?

Our model makes it Andre Ilagan to win a set (Lean confidence).

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