Tommy Paul v Luciano Darderi
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanT. Paul is 6-4 over the last ten and 31-16 on hard this season. L. Darderi is 5-5 over the last ten and 18-15 on hard this season. The head to head is T. Paul 2-1.
The pick is T. Paul to win. We make it a 77% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.31 or bigger. At 1.25 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| T. Paul | L. Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Ranking | 21 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| WLWWL | Last 5 | WLLLW |
| +0.5 | V the odds | +0.2 |
| 46-21 | Season | 36-27 |
| 31-16 | Hard 2026 | 18-15 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Rome | T. PaulvL. Darderi | 6-3 3-6 2-6 |
| 2024-08-07 | Montreal | T. PaulvL. Darderi | 6-4 7-6 |
| 2024-07-28 | Olympic Games | L. DarderivT. Paul | 3-6 4-6 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
T. Paul — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Rublev | 1.80 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-2 PaulRublevPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 27 of 11Aces43Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2.65 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 5-7 PaulFritzPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%67%Return points won33%34%Games held8 of 1011 of 11Break points saved1 of 39 of 9Aces115Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | C. Moutet | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 PaulMoutetPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved10 of 145 of 10Aces43Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | B. Bonzi | 1.41 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 PaulBonziPoints won54%46%Serve points won78%68%Return points won32%22%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces1810Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2.91 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-1 3-6 PaulMedvedevPoints won48%52%Serve points won57%60%Return points won40%43%Games held9 of 139 of 12Break points saved8 of 1211 of 14Aces716Double faults18 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.48 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 PaulBergsPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%69%Return points won31%33%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved8 of 92 of 4Aces34Double faults23 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | V. Vacherot | 1.61 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 PaulVacherotPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved6 of 72 of 6Aces49Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Vallejo | 1.49 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-2 PaulVallejoPoints won62%38%Serve points won64%40%Return points won60%36%Games held6 of 82 of 8Break points saved3 of 54 of 10Aces51Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 1.35 | 72% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 2-6 PaulTabiloPoints won37%63%Serve points won43%70%Return points won30%57%Games held2 of 77 of 8Break points saved3 of 82 of 3Aces50Double faults61 | |||||||
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 4.85 | 80% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 3-6 4-6 PaulAlcarazPoints won43%57%Serve points won56%71%Return points won29%44%Games held10 of 1414 of 15Break points saved10 of 143 of 4Aces43Double faults12 | |||||||
L. Darderi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | M. Arnaldi | 2.12 | 54% | WON | |
Games in each set7-5 6-2 DarderiArnaldiPoints won57%43%Serve points won74%58%Return points won42%26%Games held10 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 03 of 6Aces66Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | J. Duckworth | 1.89 | 51% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-7 DarderiDuckworthPoints won46%54%Serve points won67%74%Return points won26%33%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved1 of 21 of 1Aces617Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 3.08 | 68% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 DarderiTsitsipasPoints won44%56%Serve points won66%77%Return points won23%34%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces416Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | K. Jacquet | 1.70 | 56% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-7 DarderiJacquetPoints won45%55%Serve points won64%79%Return points won21%36%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved5 of 60 of 0Aces115Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Ruud | 2.90 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-3 DarderiRuudPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%55%Return points won45%29%Games held9 of 117 of 10Break points saved6 of 85 of 8Aces1311Double faults34 | |||||||
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | A. Zverev | 8.51 | 89% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 2-6 6-7 DarderiZverevPoints won42%58%Serve points won58%78%Return points won22%42%Games held10 of 1414 of 14Break points saved13 of 171 of 1Aces913Double faults75 | |||||||
| 2026-09-05 | US Open | Hard | D. Sweeny | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-3 6-3 DarderiSweenyPoints won57%43%Serve points won66%53%Return points won47%34%Games held12 of 148 of 14Break points saved6 of 82 of 8Aces72Double faults44 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Svrcina | 1.72 | 57% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-7 6-4 6-4 DarderiSvrcinaPoints won53%47%Serve points won55%50%Return points won50%45%Games held14 of 2110 of 20Break points saved13 of 2011 of 21Aces1611Double faults920 | |||||||
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | H. Wendelken | 1.31 | 74% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 3-6 6-2 7-5 DarderiWendelkenPoints won53%47%Serve points won60%55%Return points won45%40%Games held15 of 1911 of 18Break points saved13 of 1713 of 20Aces1510Double faults57 | |||||||
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 2.34 | 58% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 0-6 DarderiZandschulpPoints won37%63%Serve points won40%66%Return points won34%60%Games held1 of 67 of 7Break points saved3 of 81 of 1Aces012Double faults35 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Tommy Paul or Luciano Darderi?
Tommy Paul is favourite at 1.25, which is a 75% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi?
Tommy Paul is 1.25 and Luciano Darderi is 3.75, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.
What is the head-to-head between Tommy Paul and Luciano Darderi?
They have met 3 times and Tommy Paul leads 2-1.
Who will win Tommy Paul vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model makes it Tommy Paul to win at 1.25 (Lean confidence).