Tomas Machac v Arthur Gea
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
StrongWONA. Gea is 8-2 over the last ten and 25-7 on hard this season. T. Machac is 4-6 over the last ten and 10-9 on hard this season.
The pick is A. Gea to win. We make it a 64% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.56 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| T. Machac | A. Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| 41 | Ranking | 241 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WLLLL | Last 5 | WLWWL |
| -0.8 | V the odds | +2.2 |
| 15-13 | Season | 42-17 |
| 10-9 | Hard 2026 | 25-7 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | T. MachacvA. Gea | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
T. Machac — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | Hard | A. Gea | 0 - 2 | 2.37 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Beijing | Hard | Y. Hanfmann | 1 - 2 | 2.02 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | T. Samuel | 3 - 0 | 2.31 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | M. Rottgering | 2 - 0 | 1.45 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 0 - 2 | 2.04 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-05-27 | French Open | Clay | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | 7.74 | 87% | LOST |
| 2026-05-24 | French Open | Clay | Z. Bergs | 3 - 0 | 1.72 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-05-07 | Rome | Clay | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | 2.33 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-04-24 | Madrid | Hard | C. Norrie | 2 - 1 | 1.75 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid | Hard | F. Comesana | 2 - 1 | 1.45 | 67% | WON |
A. Gea — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | Z. Zhang | 0 - 2 | 1.21 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | Hard | T. Machac | 0 - 2 | 1.55 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Beijing | Hard | R. Te | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-07 | US Open | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 2 - 3 | 2.40 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-05 | US Open | Hard | M. Zheng | 2 - 3 | 2.22 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 3 | 1.77 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | N. Basavareddy | 0 - 2 | 1.72 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | C. Chidekh | 2 - 1 | 1.43 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | S. Nagal | 2 - 0 | 1.13 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-08-02 | Los Cabos | Hard | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 0 | 2.39 | 59% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Tomas Machac or Arthur Gea?
Arthur Gea is favourite at 1.55, which is a 60% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea?
Tomas Machac is 2.37 and Arthur Gea is 1.55, the prices we recorded for the Beijing match.
What is the head-to-head between Tomas Machac and Arthur Gea?
They have met 1 time and Arthur Gea leads 1-0.
Who will win Tomas Machac vs Arthur Gea?
Our model makes it Arthur Gea to win at 1.62 (Strong confidence).