Toby Samuel v Mackenzie McDonald
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONT. Samuel is 8-2 over the last ten and 4-4 on clay this season. M. McDonald is 3-7 over the last ten and 2-5 on clay this season.
The pick is T. Samuel to win 2-0. We make it a 47% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.12 or bigger. At 1.91 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| T. Samuel | M. McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| 110 | Ranking | 129 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 3-7 |
| WLWWW | Last 5 | LWWLL |
| +1.3 | V the odds | -2.2 |
| 43-16 | Season | 17-24 |
| 4-4 | Clay 2026 | 2-5 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 9d | Days rest | 32d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | 32d out |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Porto | T. SamuelvM. McDonald | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
T. Samuel — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | 1.33 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | 1.22 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | 3.47 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | T. Machac | 3 - 0 | 1.68 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | C. Garin | 1 - 1 RET | 1.43 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | B. Harris | 2 - 1 | 1.21 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | F. Maestrelli | 2 - 1 | 1.22 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-07-30 | Vancouver | Hard | J. D. Hara Friend | 2 - 0 | 1.23 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-07-29 | Vancouver | Hard | J. Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | 1.43 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-07-26 | Winnipeg | Hard | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | 1.49 | 65% | WON |
M. McDonald — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | T. Samuel | 2 - 0 | 3.25 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | D. Svrcina | 2 - 1 | 2.16 | 56% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | T. Seyboth Wild | 0 - 2 | 1.58 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | US Open | Hard | S. Napolitano | 0 - 2 | 1.20 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-08-20 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | 2.59 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati | Hard | Y. Wu | 1 - 2 | 2.67 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-07-28 | Washington | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | 4.15 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-07-26 | Washington | Hard | T. Svajda | 0 - 2 | 1.56 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-07-25 | Washington | Hard | E. Butvilas | 2 - 1 | 1.58 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-07-08 | Newport | Grass | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | 2.00 | 52% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Toby Samuel or Mackenzie McDonald?
Toby Samuel is favourite at 1.33, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Toby Samuel vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Toby Samuel is 1.33 and Mackenzie McDonald is 3.25, the prices we recorded for the Porto match.
What is the head-to-head between Toby Samuel and Mackenzie McDonald?
They have met 1 time and Toby Samuel leads 1-0.
Who will win Toby Samuel vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Our model makes it Toby Samuel to win 2-0 at 1.91 (Lean confidence).