ChallengerTaranto (Italy)2026-11-01 11:30

Tiago Pereira v Filiberto Fumagalli

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

T. Pereira to win1.17

Price too short today - wait for 1.25 or bigger · our chance 80% · market 79/21, us 80/20

T. Pereira is 4-6 over the last ten. F. Fumagalli is 5-5 over the last ten.

The pick is T. Pereira to win. We make it a 80% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.25 or bigger. At 1.17 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

T. Pereira		F. Fumagalli
339	Ranking	-
4-6	Last 10	5-5
LLLWW	Last 5	LLWWL
+0.1	V the odds	-0.4
41-36	Season	12-11
-	Surface	-
0	Last 7 days	0
13d	Days rest	33d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	33d out
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

T. PereiraFAV1.1779%

F. Fumagalli4.4321%

Market says79% Pereira

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

T. PereiraLLLWW

F. FumagalliLLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

T. Pereira

F. Fumagalli

41-36

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on surface

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

12-11

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Tiago Pereira

Portugal

Filiberto Fumagalli

Italy

339

Portugal

41–34

21–17

20–16

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

1805

Italy

2–8

0–4

2–4

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

T. Pereira — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Lisbon	Clay	M. Trungelliti	4.81	80%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 1-6 PereiraTrungellitiPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%63%Return points won37%44%Games held10 of 1511 of 14Break points saved6 of 114 of 7Aces43Double faults35
2026-10-12	Maia	Clay (Indoor)	L. Mikrut	4.24	77%	LOST
Games in each set0-6 3-6 PereiraMikrutPoints won36%64%Serve points won33%60%Return points won40%67%Games held1 of 76 of 8Break points saved3 of 92 of 4Aces03Double faults02
2026-10-09	Braga	Clay	E. Moller	2.85	66%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 2-6 1-6 PereiraMollerPoints won45%55%Serve points won45%56%Return points won44%55%Games held5 of 148 of 13Break points saved10 of 196 of 11Aces23Double faults45
2026-10-08	Braga	Clay	N. Sanchez Izquierdo	3.47	72%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 PereiraIzquierdoPoints won57%43%Serve points won73%65%Return points won35%27%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved3 of 30 of 2Aces50Double faults02
2026-10-05	Braga	Clay	P. Martin Tiffon	2.43	61%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 PereiraTiffonPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%55%Return points won45%34%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved1 of 26 of 10Aces11Double faults26
2026-10-01	Porto	Clay	H. Grenier	2.22	57%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 PereiraGrenierPoints won49%51%Serve points won71%68%Return points won32%29%Games held9 of 1011 of 11Break points saved0 of 12 of 2Aces013Double faults16
2026-09-28	Porto	Clay	O. Virtanen	3.65	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 2-6 6-3 PereiraVirtanenPoints won51%49%Serve points won59%59%Return points won41%41%Games held10 of 149 of 13Break points saved8 of 128 of 12Aces23Double faults28
2026-09-20	Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification	Clay	Pa. Tsitsipas	1.05	91%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 5-7 6-7 PereiraTsitsipasPoints won50%50%Serve points won63%63%Return points won37%37%Games held15 of 1816 of 18Break points saved2 of 54 of 6Aces157Double faults612
2026-09-15	Szczecin	Clay	F. Pieczonka	2.04	53%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 4-6 5-7 PereiraPieczonkaPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%64%Return points won36%40%Games held13 of 1714 of 17Break points saved14 of 185 of 8Aces16Double faults27
2026-09-14	Szczecin	Clay	R. Molleker	2.46	61%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 7-6 PereiraMollekerPoints won50%50%Serve points won61%66%Return points won34%39%Games held11 of 1512 of 15Break points saved10 of 143 of 6Aces811Double faults22

F. Fumagalli — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-09-29	M15 Telavi 2 (Georgia)	Clay	J. Gschwendtner		1.56	61%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-6 FumagalliGschwendtnerPoints won36%64%Serve points won39%67%Return points won33%61%Games held1 of 76 of 7Break points saved4 of 104 of 5
2026-09-25	M15 Telavi	Clay	N. Madaras		4.50	80%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 7-6 4-6
2026-09-24	M15 Telavi	Clay	V. Grippo		1.22	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-0 FumagalliGrippoPoints won62%38%Serve points won64%39%Return points won61%36%Games held6 of 82 of 8Break points saved1 of 37 of 13
2026-09-23	M15 Telavi	Clay	A. Fiorentini		1.61	58%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-0 6-2 FumagalliFiorentiniPoints won57%43%Serve points won58%44%Return points won56%42%Games held8 of 124 of 11Break points saved7 of 113 of 9
2026-09-01	M15 Kursumlijska Banja 14	Clay	A. Aubriot		1.67	57%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 1-6 5-7 FumagalliAubriotPoints won47%53%Serve points won48%54%Return points won46%52%Games held8 of 1610 of 15Break points saved3 of 113 of 8
2026-08-27	M15 Kursumlijska Banja 13	Clay	S. D'Agostino		—	—	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-7 FumagalliD'AgostinoPoints won49%51%Serve points won53%56%Return points won44%47%Games held7 of 128 of 12Break points saved13 of 185 of 8
2026-08-25	M15 Kursumlijska Banja 13	Clay	D. Petrovic	RET	1.40	68%	WON
Games in each set6-2 3-0 FumagalliPetrovicPoints won66%34%Serve points won69%37%Return points won63%31%Games held5 of 61 of 5Break points saved2 of 33 of 7
2026-08-07	M15 Curtea De Arges 2 (Romania)	Clay	G. Ghetu	RET	4.58	79%	LOST
Games in each set5-7
2026-08-06	M15 Curtea De Arges 2 (Romania)	Clay	O. Geladaris		1.20	79%	WON
Games in each set6-0 7-5
2026-08-04	M15 Curtea De Arges 2 (Romania)	Clay	Y. Oki		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3

Common questions

Who is favourite, Tiago Pereira or Filiberto Fumagalli?

Tiago Pereira is favourite at 1.17, which is a 79% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Tiago Pereira vs Filiberto Fumagalli?

Tiago Pereira is 1.17 and Filiberto Fumagalli is 4.43, the prices we recorded for the Taranto (Italy) match.

Who will win Tiago Pereira vs Filiberto Fumagalli?

Our model makes it Tiago Pereira to win at 1.17 (Lean confidence).

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