ChallengerHardCharlottesville2026-11-06 16:00

Stefan Kozlov v Braden Shick

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

B. Shick to win1.87

Worth backing at 1.77 or bigger · our chance 57% · market 51/49, us 43/57

B. Shick is 5-5 over the last ten and 41-16 on hard this season. S. Kozlov is 5-5 over the last ten and 18-20 on hard this season.

The pick is B. Shick to win. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.77 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Kozlov		B. Shick
290	Ranking	211
5-5	Last 10	5-5
WWLWL	Last 5	WWLLL
+0.3	V the odds	+0.6
26-25	Season	45-19
18-20	Hard 2026	41-16
2	Last 7 days	2
2d	Days rest	2d
2	Wins here	2
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. KozlovFAV1.8051%

B. Shick1.8749%

Market says51% Kozlov

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. KozlovWWLWL

B. ShickWWLLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

S. Kozlov

B. Shick

26-25

18-20

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

45-19

41-16

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Stefan Kozlov

USA

Braden Shick

USA

290

USA

23–24

15–18

5–5

3–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

211

USA

43–18

41–15

2–2

0–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Kozlov — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-04	Charlottesville	Hard	M. Cassone		2.27	58%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 KozlovCassonePoints won61%39%Serve points won68%45%Return points won55%32%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved4 of 53 of 8Aces33Double faults13
2026-11-03	Charlottesville	Hard	A. Martin		1.77	54%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-0 KozlovMartinPoints won65%35%Serve points won70%39%Return points won61%30%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved1 of 23 of 8Aces00Double faults40
2026-10-28	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	M. H. Rehberg		2.51	62%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 4-6 KozlovRehbergPoints won46%54%Serve points won59%62%Return points won38%41%Games held8 of 1110 of 11Break points saved5 of 810 of 11Aces18Double faults23
2026-10-26	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	M. Cassone	RET	2.53	62%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-0 KozlovCassonePoints won54%46%Serve points won66%55%Return points won45%34%Games held8 of 116 of 11Break points saved1 of 43 of 8Aces24Double faults34
2026-10-01	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	M. Krueger		1.81	51%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-3 3-6 KozlovKruegerPoints won46%54%Serve points won51%60%Return points won40%49%Games held7 of 139 of 13Break points saved9 of 156 of 10Aces49Double faults73
2026-09-29	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	J. K. Trotter		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-2 KozlovTrotterPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved0 of 11 of 5Aces04Double faults14
2026-09-21	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	C. Smith		3.20	71%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 KozlovSmithPoints won40%60%Serve points won51%73%Return points won27%49%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved1 of 50 of 1Aces11Double faults22
2026-09-14	Tiburon	Hard	Dar. Blanch		2.62	65%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-2 6-7 KozlovBlanchPoints won49%51%Serve points won61%64%Return points won36%39%Games held11 of 1411 of 15Break points saved5 of 86 of 10Aces15Double faults27
2026-08-13	Brownsburg (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	A. Mayo		2.55	62%	WON
Games in each set6-3 5-7 6-2 KozlovMayoPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%64%Return points won36%27%Games held14 of 1511 of 14Break points saved3 of 44 of 7Aces03Double faults24
2026-08-13	Brownsburg (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	H. Wendelken		2.15	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 1-6 KozlovWendelkenPoints won47%53%Serve points won53%61%Return points won39%47%Games held4 of 107 of 10Break points saved8 of 141 of 4Aces15Double faults03

B. Shick — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-04	Charlottesville	Hard	Dar. Blanch		4.05	76%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 ShickBlanchPoints won58%42%Serve points won75%57%Return points won43%25%Games held10 of 117 of 10Break points saved0 of 16 of 9Aces53Double faults23
2026-11-02	Charlottesville	Hard	C. Smith	RET	3.24	70%	WON
Games in each set2-3 ShickSmithPoints won52%48%Serve points won62%60%Return points won40%38%Games held2 of 32 of 2Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces11Double faults12
2026-10-26	Sioux Falls	Hard (Indoor)	M. H. Rehberg		2.21	56%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 ShickRehbergPoints won44%56%Serve points won52%63%Return points won37%48%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved2 of 64 of 5Aces27Double faults21
2026-10-19	Fort Worth (Usa)	Hard	G. Debru		2.01	52%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 2-6 2-6 ShickDebruPoints won45%55%Serve points won56%66%Return points won34%44%Games held8 of 1210 of 12Break points saved2 of 63 of 5Aces28Double faults13
2026-09-30	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	M. Rottgering		2.50	62%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 4-6 ShickRottgeringPoints won36%64%Serve points won40%70%Return points won30%60%Games held3 of 96 of 8Break points saved7 of 130 of 2Aces32Double faults44
2026-09-28	Columbus	Hard (Indoor)	O. Baris		1.73	54%	WON
Games in each set7-6 0-6 6-3 ShickBarisPoints won48%52%Serve points won64%67%Return points won33%36%Games held10 of 1411 of 13Break points saved2 of 63 of 5Aces1013Double faults06
2026-09-21	San Diego 2 (Usa) - Qualification	Hard	P. Maloney		1.40	68%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 ShickMaloneyPoints won49%51%Serve points won64%67%Return points won33%36%Games held9 of 1110 of 10Break points saved7 of 91 of 1Aces65Double faults63
2026-09-16	Tiburon	Hard	J.J. Wolf		3.60	74%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 7-6 4-6 ShickWolfPoints won48%52%Serve points won63%66%Return points won34%37%Games held13 of 1615 of 16Break points saved9 of 125 of 6Aces36Double faults32
2026-09-15	Tiburon	Hard	E. Arutiunian		1.47	63%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 ShickArutiunianPoints won57%43%Serve points won75%62%Return points won38%25%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved1 of 24 of 7Aces37Double faults11
2026-08-25	US Open	Hard	C. Tabur		2.24	57%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 ShickTaburPoints won52%48%Serve points won64%63%Return points won37%36%Games held10 of 118 of 11Break points saved11 of 128 of 11Aces114Double faults12

Common questions

Who is favourite, Stefan Kozlov or Braden Shick?

Stefan Kozlov is favourite at 1.80, which is a 51% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Stefan Kozlov vs Braden Shick?

Stefan Kozlov is 1.80 and Braden Shick is 1.87, the prices we recorded for the Charlottesville match.

Who will win Stefan Kozlov vs Braden Shick?

Our model makes it Braden Shick to win at 1.87 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

Giron v Chidekh