ATPHard (Indoor)Paris2026-10-31 14:00

Sebastian Baez v Damir Dzumhur

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

D. Dzumhur to win1.67

Worth backing at 1.59 or bigger · our chance 63% · market 44/56, us 37/63

D. Dzumhur is 7-3 over the last ten and 13-14 on hard this season. S. Baez is 2-8 over the last ten and 24-16 on hard this season. The head to head is S. Baez 2-1.

The pick is D. Dzumhur to win. We make it a 63% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.59 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

S. Baez		D. Dzumhur
53	Ranking	103
2-8	Last 10	7-3
LLLWL	Last 5	LWWWW
-2.3	V the odds	+2.7
35-30	Season	26-30
24-16	Hard 2026	13-14
1	Last 7 days	0
7d	Days rest	9d
0	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 2-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

S. Baez2.1044%

D. DzumhurFAV1.6756%

Market says56% Dzumhur

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

S. BaezLLLWL

D. DzumhurLWWWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

S. Baez2

D. Dzumhur1

Head to head3 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-04-26	Madrid	S. BaezvD. Dzumhur	6-1 1-6 2-6
2025-04-15	Barcelona	S. BaezvD. Dzumhur	6-1 7-5
2025-03-01	Santiago	D. DzumhurvS. Baez	4-6 4-6

This season & this event

S. Baez

D. Dzumhur

35-30

24-16

Lost R64 to C. Norrie

Reached R64

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

26-30

13-14

Lost R64 to F. Cerundolo

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Sebastian Baez

Argentina

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Argentina

34–26

17–12

17–13

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

103

Bosnia and Herzegovina

25–29

9–11

13–16

2–2

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

S. Baez — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-24	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	G. Mpetshi Perricard		2.33	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 3-6 BaezPerricardPoints won48%52%Serve points won63%67%Return points won33%37%Games held10 of 1312 of 14Break points saved2 of 51 of 3Aces222Double faults04
2026-10-20	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	P. Herbert		2.42	60%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 BaezHerbertPoints won46%54%Serve points won59%70%Return points won30%41%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved12 of 145 of 5Aces010Double faults13
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	V. Vacherot		3.55	73%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 BaezVacherotPoints won45%55%Serve points won66%77%Return points won23%34%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved1 of 32 of 3Aces515Double faults01
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Giron		1.76	55%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-3 6-4 BaezGironPoints won51%49%Serve points won56%55%Return points won45%44%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved6 of 115 of 10Aces28Double faults02
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	J. Shang		2.33	58%	LOST
Games in each set7-5 3-6 5-7 BaezShangPoints won48%52%Serve points won56%60%Return points won40%44%Games held11 of 1712 of 16Break points saved9 of 158 of 12Aces33Double faults32
2026-09-23	Chengdu	Hard	J. Brooksby		2.36	59%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 5-7 BaezBrooksbyPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%72%Return points won28%32%Games held10 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 22 of 2Aces71Double faults01
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	B. Nakashima		6.53	85%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 0-6 BaezNakashimaPoints won33%67%Serve points won42%75%Return points won25%58%Games held3 of 1011 of 11Break points saved4 of 113 of 3Aces012Double faults40
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	H. Grenier		1.26	77%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-6 BaezGrenierPoints won55%45%Serve points won59%50%Return points won50%41%Games held8 of 127 of 12Break points saved10 of 144 of 9Aces010Double faults43
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	J. M. Cerundolo	RET	1.67	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-4 BaezCerundoloPoints won35%65%Serve points won39%68%Return points won32%61%Games held1 of 65 of 6Break points saved4 of 93 of 4Aces02Double faults12
2026-08-24	Cancun 2	Hard	H. Hurkacz		3.01	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 0-6 3-6 BaezHurkaczPoints won42%58%Serve points won54%72%Return points won28%46%Games held7 of 1211 of 13Break points saved3 of 82 of 4Aces013Double faults14

D. Dzumhur — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-22	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	Z. Bergs	4.41	78%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 4-6 DzumhurBergsPoints won42%58%Serve points won60%75%Return points won25%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved2 of 52 of 2Aces012Double faults10
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	D. Prizmic	2.98	67%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-6 6-2 DzumhurPrizmicPoints won50%50%Serve points won61%60%Return points won40%39%Games held11 of 1411 of 14Break points saved5 of 88 of 11Aces25Double faults04
2026-10-18	Olbia	Hard	J. Fearnley	3.24	70%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 DzumhurFearnleyPoints won53%47%Serve points won68%66%Return points won34%32%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved3 of 45 of 7Aces12Double faults32
2026-10-17	Olbia	Hard	M. Kasnikowski	1.93	50%	WON
Games in each set6-1 7-5 DzumhurKasnikowskiPoints won61%39%Serve points won73%52%Return points won48%27%Games held9 of 96 of 10Break points saved2 of 22 of 6Aces11Double faults01
2026-10-16	Olbia	Hard	T. Gentzsch	1.91	51%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-3 DzumhurGentzschPoints won63%37%Serve points won71%44%Return points won56%29%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved2 of 22 of 7Aces33Double faults01
2026-10-14	Olbia	Hard	D. Kuzmanov	1.61	60%	WON
Games in each set0-6 7-6 6-0 DzumhurKuzmanovPoints won50%50%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held8 of 128 of 12Break points saved2 of 63 of 7Aces12Double faults13
2026-10-12	Olbia	Hard	A. Dougaz	1.67	58%	WON
Games in each set6-3 2-6 6-3 DzumhurDougazPoints won52%48%Serve points won62%58%Return points won42%38%Games held10 of 139 of 13Break points saved4 of 75 of 9Aces02Double faults33
2026-10-08	Villena	Clay	A. Shelbayh	—	—	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-3 3-6 DzumhurShelbayhPoints won50%50%Serve points won61%57%Return points won43%39%Games held11 of 1512 of 15Break points saved5 of 912 of 15Aces08Double faults55
2026-10-06	Villena	Clay	G. Kravchenko	1.47	66%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 DzumhurKravchenkoPoints won55%45%Serve points won67%60%Return points won40%33%Games held10 of 117 of 10Break points saved7 of 82 of 5Aces23Double faults31
2026-09-28	Porto	Clay	M. Echargui	1.65	59%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 0-6 DzumhurEcharguiPoints won40%60%Serve points won44%63%Return points won37%56%Games held3 of 97 of 9Break points saved5 of 113 of 5Aces02Double faults22

Common questions

Who is favourite, Sebastian Baez or Damir Dzumhur?

Damir Dzumhur is favourite at 1.67, which is a 56% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur?

Sebastian Baez is 2.10 and Damir Dzumhur is 1.67, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.

What is the head-to-head between Sebastian Baez and Damir Dzumhur?

They have met 3 times and Sebastian Baez leads 2-1.

Who will win Sebastian Baez vs Damir Dzumhur?

Our model makes it Damir Dzumhur to win at 1.67 (Strong confidence).

Also at this event

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