ChallengerClayCosta do Sauipe · Qualifiers2026-11-02 20:30

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos v Rafael Tosetto

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

R. Tosetto to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 1.58 or bigger · our chance 64% · market 67/33, us 65/35

R. Tosetto is 5-5 over the last ten and 20-20 on clay this season. P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos is 7-3 over the last ten and 29-23 on clay this season.

The pick is R. Tosetto to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 64% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.58 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos		R. Tosetto
436	Ranking	1082
7-3	Last 10	5-5
LWLLW	Last 5	WLLLW
+0.3	V the odds	+0.7
37-26	Season	24-23
29-23	Clay 2026	20-20
0	Last 7 days	2
11d	Days rest	1d
0	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

P. A. Saraiva Dos SantosFAV1.4267%

R. Tosetto2.9233%

Market says67% Santos

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

P. A. Saraiva Dos SantosLWLLW

R. TosettoWLLLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos

R. Tosetto

37-26

29-23

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

24-23

20-20

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos

Brazil

Rafael Tosetto

Brazil

436

Brazil

36–24

8–2

28–22

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

1082

Brazil

5–5

—

5–5

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

P. A. Saraiva Dos Santos — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-22	M15 Maceio (Brazil)	Clay	V. C. Loureiro J.	—	—	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6
2026-10-21	M15 Maceio (Brazil)	Clay	B. Malla	1.99	52%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-6 SantosMallaPoints won56%44%Serve points won63%55%Return points won45%37%Games held8 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 33 of 7
2026-10-11	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	S. De La Fuente	1.54	62%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 SantosFuentePoints won46%54%Serve points won57%65%Return points won35%43%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved8 of 114 of 5Aces30Double faults73
2026-09-29	Curitiba	Clay	M. Pucinelli de Almeida	5.21	82%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 0-6 SantosAlmeidaPoints won44%56%Serve points won56%70%Return points won30%44%Games held8 of 1211 of 12Break points saved1 of 53 of 4Aces50Double faults41
2026-09-28	Curitiba	Clay	G. Schenekenberg	1.04	91%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-4 SantosSchenekenbergPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%58%Return points won42%33%Games held10 of 118 of 11Break points saved3 of 47 of 10Aces52Double faults83
2026-09-27	Curitiba	Clay	A. Scheidt	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 SantosScheidtPoints won56%44%Serve points won69%55%Return points won45%31%Games held10 of 115 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 8
2026-09-20	M15 Belem	Hard	N. Zanellato	1.34	71%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 SantosZanellatoPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%67%Return points won33%33%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved4 of 44 of 6
2026-09-19	M15 Belem	Hard	L. E. de Carvalho Damazio	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 1-6 6-3 SantosDamazioPoints won52%48%Serve points won65%58%Return points won42%35%Games held9 of 118 of 10Break points saved1 of 36 of 8
2026-09-18	M15 Belem	Hard	G. Schenekenberg	1.07	85%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 SantosSchenekenbergPoints won60%40%Serve points won74%52%Return points won48%26%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved1 of 12 of 6
2026-09-17	M15 Belem	Hard	H. Ortenblad Nogueira	1.02	92%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 SantosNogueiraPoints won56%44%Serve points won67%52%Return points won48%33%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved0 of 24 of 8

R. Tosetto — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-01	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	Y. Lalami Laaroussi	1.76	54%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 TosettoLaaroussiPoints won59%41%Serve points won70%52%Return points won48%30%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved4 of 410 of 14Aces23Double faults15
2026-10-27	M15 João Pessoa (Brazil), Clay	—	T. Martinez	1.89	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 2-6 3-6 TosettoMartinezPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%63%Return points won37%40%Games held9 of 1210 of 13Break points saved5 of 82 of 5
2026-10-21	M15 Maceio (Brazil)	Clay	T. Farjat	2.10	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 3-6 2-6
2026-10-17	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	J. E. Schiessl	4.18	77%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 TosettoSchiesslPoints won37%63%Serve points won35%62%Return points won38%65%Games held2 of 77 of 8Break points saved0 of 44 of 5
2026-10-16	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	P. H. Chabalgoity	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 TosettoChabalgoityPoints won54%46%Serve points won72%59%Return points won41%28%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved4 of 46 of 8
2026-10-15	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	V. Goncalves	2.20	57%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-6 6-4 TosettoGoncalvesPoints won48%52%Serve points won69%72%Return points won28%31%Games held12 of 1513 of 15Break points saved2 of 50 of 2
2026-10-13	M15 Maringa 3 (Brazil)	Clay	I. Monzon	3.00	68%	WON
Games in each set7-5 4-6 6-3 TosettoMonzonPoints won51%49%Serve points won56%56%Return points won44%44%Games held11 of 169 of 15Break points saved3 of 81 of 6
2026-09-27	Curitiba	Clay	J. Pereira	—	—	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-6 TosettoPereiraPoints won49%51%Serve points won57%61%Return points won39%43%Games held10 of 1411 of 14Break points saved7 of 115 of 8Aces60Double faults93
2026-09-24	M15 Curitiba (Brazil)	Clay	V. C. Loureiro J.	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-7
2026-09-23	M15 Curitiba (Brazil)	Clay	J. Wendler Filho	1.19	77%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-5 TosettoFilhoPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%57%Return points won43%30%Games held10 of 129 of 12Break points saved2 of 38 of 11

Common questions

Who is favourite, Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos or Rafael Tosetto?

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos is favourite at 1.42, which is a 67% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Rafael Tosetto?

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos is 1.42 and Rafael Tosetto is 2.92, the prices we recorded for the Costa do Sauipe match.

Who will win Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Rafael Tosetto?

Our model makes it Rafael Tosetto to win a set (Lean confidence).

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