Novak Djokovic v Alex De Minaur
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanVOIDN. Djokovic is 7-3 over the last ten and 10-4 on hard this season. A. De Minaur is 8-2 over the last ten and 20-11 on hard this season. A. De Minaur has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is N. Djokovic 3-1.
The pick is N. Djokovic to win. We make it a 63% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.60 or bigger. At 1.56 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| N. Djokovic | A. De Minaur | |
|---|---|---|
| - | Ranking | 9 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WWWLL | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| +1.3 | V the odds | +2.1 |
| 18-7 | Season | 40-18 |
| 10-4 | Hard 2026 | 20-11 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 2d | Days rest | 1d |
| 3 | Wins here | 4 |
| Clear | Fitness | Defending semi |
| Head to head 3-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-07 | Wimbledon | A. De MinaurvN. Djokovic | 1 - 3 |
| 2024-04-12 | ATP Monte Carlo | N. DjokovicvA. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-01-03 | ATP United Cup | A. De MinaurvN. Djokovic | 2 - 0 |
| 2023-01-23 | Australian Open | A. De MinaurvN. Djokovic | 0 - 3 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
N. Djokovic — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Beijing | Hard | A. De Minaur | 1 - 0 RET | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 2.92 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | Y. Bu | 1 - 2 | 1.30 | 75% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | N. Borges | 0 - 2 | 1.40 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | M. Navone | 3 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-15 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. A. Tirante | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-10 | Wimbledon | Grass | J. Sinner | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-07 | Wimbledon | Grass | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-07-05 | Wimbledon | Grass | R. Safiullin | 1 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 3 | — | — | WON |
A. De Minaur — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Beijing | Hard | N. Djokovic | 1 - 0 RET | 2.59 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 0 RET | 1.74 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | 1.35 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | M. Navone | 2 - 0 | 1.24 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.75 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | M. Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-03 | US Open | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Novak Djokovic or Alex De Minaur?
Novak Djokovic is favourite at 1.56, which is a 62% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur?
Novak Djokovic is 1.56 and Alex De Minaur is 2.59, the prices we recorded for the Beijing match.
What is the head-to-head between Novak Djokovic and Alex De Minaur?
They have met 4 times and Novak Djokovic leads 3-1.
Who will win Novak Djokovic vs Alex De Minaur?
Our model makes it Novak Djokovic to win at 1.56 (Lean confidence).