WTAHardTokyo · 1/8-finals2026-10-28 03:00

Naomi Osaka v Mia Pohankova

The market

N. OsakaFAV1.1583%

M. Pohankova5.5317%

Market says83% Osaka

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

N. OsakaWLWWL

M. PohankovaWLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

N. Osaka

M. Pohankova

31-12

18-8

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

28-16

15-6

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Naomi Osaka

Japan

Mia Pohankova

Slovakia

Japan

30–11

15–6

7–3

8–2

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

460

Slovakia

22–7

14–5

2–1

6–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

N. Osaka — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Tokyo	Hard	J. Paolini	1.32	74%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 OsakaPaoliniPoints won53%47%Serve points won65%63%Return points won37%35%Games held9 of 117 of 10Break points saved7 of 91 of 4Aces71Double faults30
2026-10-06	Beijing	Hard	K. Muchova	2.18	55%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-1 6-7 OsakaMuchovaPoints won52%48%Serve points won61%58%Return points won42%39%Games held12 of 1610 of 15Break points saved14 of 185 of 10Aces114Double faults11
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	S. Bejlek	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 OsakaBejlekPoints won52%48%Serve points won64%61%Return points won39%36%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved7 of 98 of 11Aces05Double faults25
2026-10-02	Beijing	Hard	M. Timofeeva	1.26	77%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-3 OsakaTimofeevaPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held11 of 149 of 13Break points saved7 of 104 of 8Aces23Double faults12
2026-09-07	US Open	Hard	E. Rybakina	2.16	55%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 4-6 OsakaRybakinaPoints won41%59%Serve points won54%73%Return points won27%46%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved5 of 81 of 1Aces27Double faults51
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	E. Mertens	1.33	73%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 7-5 OsakaMertensPoints won51%49%Serve points won61%59%Return points won41%39%Games held12 of 1511 of 15Break points saved8 of 1112 of 16Aces93Double faults25
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	K. Siniakova	1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set6-2 5-7 6-1 OsakaSiniakovaPoints won56%44%Serve points won61%50%Return points won50%39%Games held11 of 147 of 13Break points saved5 of 84 of 10Aces113Double faults57
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	A. Zakharova	1.11	87%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 OsakaZakharovaPoints won54%46%Serve points won63%54%Return points won46%37%Games held8 of 128 of 12Break points saved3 of 73 of 7Aces110Double faults34
2026-08-12	Toronto	Hard	E. Rybakina	1.97	51%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 4-6 OsakaRybakinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won61%62%Return points won38%39%Games held13 of 1613 of 16Break points saved3 of 64 of 7Aces315Double faults66
2026-08-10	Toronto	Hard	L. Fernandez	1.42	69%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 OsakaFernandezPoints won57%43%Serve points won73%60%Return points won40%27%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved2 of 33 of 6Aces71Double faults21

M. Pohankova — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-27	Tokyo	Hard	T. Valentova	2.88	66%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 PohankovaValentovaPoints won62%38%Serve points won69%45%Return points won55%31%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved1 of 20 of 4Aces32Double faults05
2026-10-15	Wuhan	Hard	M. Sakkari	3.00	67%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 4-6 PohankovaSakkariPoints won42%58%Serve points won45%61%Return points won39%55%Games held3 of 87 of 9Break points saved4 of 94 of 6Aces11Double faults12
2026-10-13	Wuhan	Hard	Xiy. Wang	3.18	69%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-7 6-1 PohankovaWangPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%64%Return points won36%31%Games held15 of 1612 of 15Break points saved5 of 63 of 6Aces71Double faults23
2026-10-12	Wuhan	Hard	A. Bondar	1.90	50%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-3 PohankovaBondarPoints won59%41%Serve points won71%55%Return points won45%29%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved2 of 20 of 4Aces41Double faults11
2026-09-26	Porto	Clay	M. Timofeeva	2.28	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 7-6 3-6 PohankovaTimofeevaPoints won47%53%Serve points won57%62%Return points won38%43%Games held8 of 1412 of 15Break points saved3 of 910 of 13Aces13Double faults01
2026-09-25	Porto	Clay	K. Swan	1.82	52%	WON
Games in each set3-6 7-5 6-1 PohankovaSwanPoints won54%46%Serve points won60%54%Return points won46%40%Games held10 of 148 of 14Break points saved8 of 123 of 9Aces81Double faults15
2026-09-24	Porto	Clay	V. Podrez	1.37	69%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 PohankovaPodrezPoints won55%45%Serve points won56%46%Return points won54%44%Games held7 of 104 of 9Break points saved7 of 104 of 9Aces21Double faults01
2026-09-22	Porto	Clay	F. Jorge	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 PohankovaJorgePoints won62%38%Serve points won59%36%Return points won64%41%Games held5 of 71 of 8Break points saved2 of 43 of 10Aces40Double faults23
2026-09-19	Caldas da Rainha	Hard	G. Knutson	1.78	54%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 7-5 3-6 PohankovaKnutsonPoints won49%51%Serve points won58%58%Return points won42%42%Games held11 of 1712 of 16Break points saved5 of 119 of 13Aces54Double faults34
2026-09-18	Caldas da Rainha	Hard	K. Collins	1.28	73%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 PohankovaCollinsPoints won54%46%Serve points won59%50%Return points won50%41%Games held7 of 116 of 11Break points saved4 of 82 of 7Aces11Double faults15

Common questions

Who is favourite, Naomi Osaka or Mia Pohankova?

Naomi Osaka is favourite at 1.15, which is a 83% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Naomi Osaka vs Mia Pohankova?

Naomi Osaka is 1.15 and Mia Pohankova is 5.53, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.

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