THE TENNIS TRADER
THURSDAY 01 OCTOBERMATCHES 213EVENTS 31LIVE 4ALERTS 103
ChallengerClayPorto2026-09-30 11:00

Mili Poljicak v Henrique Rocha

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanWON
H. Rocha to win1.27
Price too short today - wait for 1.32 or bigger · our chance 76% · market 24/76, us 24/76

H. Rocha is 6-4 over the last ten and 24-11 on clay this season. M. Poljicak is 5-5 over the last ten and 25-15 on clay this season.

The pick is H. Rocha to win. We make it a 76% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.32 or bigger. At 1.27 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. PoljicakH. Rocha
290Ranking118
5-5Last 106-4
WLLLLLast 5WWWLW
+0.2V the odds+0.1
37-20Season31-22
25-15Clay 202624-11
1Last 7 days1
2dDays rest2d
1Wins here1
ClearFitnessClear
Head to head
First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Poljicak4.0324%
H. RochaFAV1.2776%
Market says76% Rocha

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

M. Poljicak0
H. Rocha1
Head to head1 meeting
DateEventMatchScore
2026-10-01PortoM. PoljicakvH. Rocha0 - 2

This season & this event

M. Poljicak
H. Rocha
37-21
25-16
Did not play
Did not play
2026 record
2026 on clay
Here in 2025
Here in 2024
32-22
25-11
Did not play
Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Mili Poljicak
Croatia
Henrique Rocha
Portugal
290
22
Croatia
36–20
2
5–3
31–17
—
Ranking
Age
Country
2026 W/L
Titles
Hard
Clay
Grass
118
22
Portugal
30–23
2
4–8
24–12
1–3

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Poljicak — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-09-30PortoClayH. Rocha0 - 24.0376%LOST
2026-09-28PortoClayM. Basing0 - 22.6765%WON
2026-09-07GenovaClayS. Sakellaridis0 - 22.8366%LOST
2026-08-31ComoClayM. Dodig2 - 02.3259%LOST
2026-08-24AugsburgClayM. Schoenhaus0 - 21.9551%LOST
2026-08-20M25 Slovenj Gradec (Slovenia)ClayS. Dominko0 - 21.3571%LOST
2026-08-18M25 Slovenj Gradec (Slovenia)ClayV. Urankar2 - 01.0292%WON
2026-08-02San MarinoClayF. Diaz Acosta2 - 04.0376%LOST
2026-08-01San MarinoClayJ. P. Varillas2 - 01.7456%WON
2026-07-31San MarinoClayA. Muller1 - 22.6263%WON

H. Rocha — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

DateEventSurfaceOpponentScoreTheir priceMarketResult
2026-09-30PortoClayM. Poljicak0 - 21.2776%WON
2026-09-28PortoClayC. Cretu0 - 21.2178%WON
2026-09-10SevilleClayS. Rodriguez Taverna2 - 01.0889%WON
2026-09-08SevilleClayC. Taberner2 - 01.5064%WON
2026-08-26US OpenHardL. Harris1 - 21.7455%LOST
2026-08-25US OpenHardM. Mmoh2 - 01.5960%WON
2026-08-20Cancun 2HardH. Hurkacz1 - 24.9681%LOST
2026-08-19Cancun 2HardS. C. Hong2 - 0——WON
2026-08-13CincinnatiHardN. Mejia1 - 21.7854%LOST
2026-08-13CincinnatiHardM. Giron0 - 23.0268%WON

Common questions

Who is favourite, Mili Poljicak or Henrique Rocha?

Henrique Rocha is favourite at 1.27, which is a 76% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Mili Poljicak vs Henrique Rocha?

Mili Poljicak is 4.03 and Henrique Rocha is 1.27, the prices we recorded for the Porto match.

What is the head-to-head between Mili Poljicak and Henrique Rocha?

They have met 1 time and Henrique Rocha leads 1-0.

Who will win Mili Poljicak vs Henrique Rocha?

Our model makes it Henrique Rocha to win at 1.27 (Lean confidence).

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