Michael Geerts v Pavel Lagutin
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONP. Lagutin is 7-3 over the last ten and 26-9 on clay this season. M. Geerts is 5-5 over the last ten and 6-5 on clay this season. M. Geerts took a medical timeout on 2026-09-30.
The pick is P. Lagutin to win 2-0. We make it a 50% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.02 or bigger. At 1.66 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Geerts | P. Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| 305 | Ranking | 432 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LWWLL | Last 5 | WWLWW |
| +0.9 | V the odds | +1.1 |
| 20-20 | Season | 45-16 |
| 6-5 | Clay 2026 | 26-9 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 14d | Days rest | 1d |
| 0 | Wins here | 2 |
| MTO | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Catania (Italy) - Qualification | M. GeertsvP. Lagutin | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Geerts — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Catania (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | P. Lagutin | 0 - 2 | 3.62 | 74% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Porto | Clay | E. Butvilas | 2 - 0 | 4.60 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | J. Domingues | 2 - 1 | 1.55 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Porto | Clay | V. Orlov | 2 - 0 | 1.44 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-21 | Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | C. Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | 2.80 | 67% | LOST |
| 2026-08-25 | Roehampton 2 (United Kingdom) - Qualification | Hard | J. D. Hara Friend | 2 - 0 | 2.79 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Roehampton (United Kingdom) | Hard | L. Poullain | 1 - 2 | 2.12 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-08-19 | Roehampton (United Kingdom) | Hard | R. Albot | 2 - 1 | 1.70 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Roehampton (United Kingdom) | Hard | B. Blaydes | 2 - 0 | 1.61 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-08-15 | M25 Koksijde | Clay | L. G. Verwerft | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
P. Lagutin — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Catania (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | M. Geerts | 0 - 2 | 1.30 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-10-12 | Catania (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | O. Ovcharenko | 2 - 1 | 1.37 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-10-11 | Catania (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | I. Parisca | 2 - 0 | 1.34 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | I. Radulov | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-21 | Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | S. Gulin | 1 - 0 RET | 1.47 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | R. T. Pieleanu | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-16 | Biella | Clay | A. Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | 2.18 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-15 | Biella | Clay | E. Dalla Valle | 2 - 1 | 1.85 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-14 | Biella | Clay | M. Marterer | 2 - 0 | 1.50 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-13 | Biella | Clay | M. Roehrich | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Michael Geerts or Pavel Lagutin?
Pavel Lagutin is favourite at 1.30, which is a 74% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Michael Geerts vs Pavel Lagutin?
Michael Geerts is 3.62 and Pavel Lagutin is 1.30, the prices we recorded for the Catania (Italy) match.
What is the head-to-head between Michael Geerts and Pavel Lagutin?
They have met 1 time and Pavel Lagutin leads 1-0.
Who will win Michael Geerts vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model makes it Pavel Lagutin to win 2-0 at 1.66 (Lean confidence).