Matteo Berrettini v Carlos Alcaraz
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanC. Alcaraz is 9-1 over the last ten and 34-4 on hard this season. M. Berrettini is 6-4 over the last ten and 13-12 on hard this season. M. Berrettini has played 4 matches in seven days. C. Alcaraz has played 5 matches in seven days. The head to head is M. Berrettini 1-3.
The pick is C. Alcaraz to win. We make it a 85% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.18 or bigger. At 1.13 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Berrettini | C. Alcaraz | |
|---|---|---|
| 48 | Ranking | 3 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 9-1 |
| WWLWW | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| +1.1 | V the odds | +0.8 |
| 26-21 | Season | 40-5 |
| 13-12 | Hard 2026 | 34-4 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 5 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 2 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-3 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-10 | ATP Wimbledon | C. AlcarazvM. Berrettini | 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3 |
| 2022-02-19 | Rio de Janeiro | M. BerrettinivC. Alcaraz | 2-6 6-2 2-6 |
| 2022-01-21 | Australian Open | C. AlcarazvM. Berrettini | 2-6 6-7 6-4 6-2 6-7 |
| 2021-10-29 | Vienna | C. AlcarazvM. Berrettini | 6-1 6-7 7-6 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Berrettini — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | U. Humbert | 2.15 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 7-5 BerrettiniHumbertPoints won52%48%Serve points won69%67%Return points won33%31%Games held11 of 1210 of 12Break points saved6 of 74 of 6Aces137Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-11-02 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | B. Nakashima | 2.39 | 59% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 7-6 BerrettiniNakashimaPoints won51%49%Serve points won79%73%Return points won27%21%Games held14 of 1515 of 16Break points saved1 of 23 of 4Aces179Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 3.01 | 68% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 2-6 BerrettiniMinaurPoints won45%55%Serve points won61%70%Return points won30%39%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved1 of 36 of 6Aces45Double faults02 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | F. Cobolli | RET | 1.93 | 51% | WON |
Games in each set5-2 BerrettiniCobolliPoints won56%44%Serve points won68%53%Return points won47%32%Games held4 of 42 of 3Break points saved0 of 04 of 5Aces30Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | T. M. Etcheverry | 1.58 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 BerrettiniEtcheverryPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%70%Return points won30%27%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved6 of 61 of 3Aces126Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-20 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | K. Jacquet | 1.75 | 56% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniJacquetPoints won48%52%Serve points won71%70%Return points won30%29%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved0 of 15 of 5Aces1316Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | B. Nakashima | 2.40 | 59% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 5-7 BerrettiniNakashimaPoints won49%51%Serve points won75%75%Return points won25%25%Games held11 of 1212 of 12Break points saved3 of 43 of 3Aces125Double faults41 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Kovacevic | 1.52 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-4 BerrettiniKovacevicPoints won58%42%Serve points won84%59%Return points won41%16%Games held15 of 1511 of 14Break points saved0 of 08 of 11Aces233Double faults44 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Vallejo | 1.62 | 60% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 1-6 BerrettiniVallejoPoints won44%56%Serve points won62%77%Return points won23%38%Games held7 of 910 of 10Break points saved3 of 53 of 3Aces45Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | 2.32 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set1-6 7-6 6-4 BerrettiniFokinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved4 of 71 of 3Aces164Double faults12 | |||||||
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-04 | Paris | Hard (Indoor) | A. Michelsen | 1.19 | 82% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-3 AlcarazMichelsenPoints won56%44%Serve points won74%61%Return points won39%26%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved2 of 32 of 4Aces32Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-11-01 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. De Minaur | 1.22 | 80% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-4 AlcarazMinaurPoints won57%43%Serve points won71%53%Return points won47%29%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved1 of 14 of 8Aces51Double faults13 | |||||||
| 2026-10-31 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | D. Medvedev | 1.42 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazMedvedevPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%57%Return points won43%35%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved2 of 41 of 4Aces76Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | T. Paul | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won68%69%Return points won31%32%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved5 of 53 of 4Aces53Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | N. Basilashvili | 1.10 | 88% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 7-6 AlcarazBasilashviliPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%58%Return points won42%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 7Aces94Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | K. Khachanov | 1.23 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazKhachanovPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%54%Return points won46%34%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved0 of 26 of 9Aces34Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.07 | 91% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-7 AlcarazBergsPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved1 of 40 of 2Aces59Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J. M. Cerundolo | 1.07 | 90% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-3 AlcarazCerundoloPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%61%Return points won39%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 04 of 7Aces82Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Lehecka | 1.29 | 76% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 AlcarazLeheckaPoints won53%47%Serve points won79%68%Return points won32%21%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 32 of 4Aces47Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 1.12 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-1 AlcarazMunarPoints won54%46%Serve points won61%53%Return points won47%39%Games held11 of 148 of 14Break points saved2 of 54 of 10Aces32Double faults44 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Matteo Berrettini or Carlos Alcaraz?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.13, which is a 84% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Matteo Berrettini is 6.00 and Carlos Alcaraz is 1.13, the prices we recorded for the Paris match.
What is the head-to-head between Matteo Berrettini and Carlos Alcaraz?
They have met 4 times and Carlos Alcaraz leads 3-1.
Who will win Matteo Berrettini vs Carlos Alcaraz?
Our model makes it Carlos Alcaraz to win at 1.13 (Lean confidence).