ChallengerClayCosta do Sauipe · Qualifiers2026-11-02 20:30

Mateus Alves v Filip Misolic

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

F. Misolic to win1.34

Price too short today - wait for 1.42 or bigger · our chance 71% · market 29/71, us 29/71

F. Misolic is 7-3 over the last ten and 9-7 on clay this season. M. Alves is 6-4 over the last ten and 35-12 on clay this season.

The pick is F. Misolic to win. We make it a 71% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.42 or bigger. At 1.34 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Alves		F. Misolic
385	Ranking	468
6-4	Last 10	7-3
LWLWL	Last 5	WLWLW
-1.5	V the odds	-0.6
40-18	Season	10-13
35-12	Clay 2026	9-7
0	Last 7 days	2
14d	Days rest	1d
0	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Alves3.2929%

F. MisolicFAV1.3471%

Market says71% Misolic

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. AlvesLWLWL

F. MisolicWLWLW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

M. Alves

F. Misolic

40-18

35-12

Lost R32 to G. Bueno

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

10-13

9-7

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Mateus Alves

Brazil

Filip Misolic

Austria

385

Brazil

38–15

5–3

33–12

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

468

Austria

3–10

1–6

2–4

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Alves — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Cali	Clay	J. Pereira	1.25	76%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 AlvesPereiraPoints won40%60%Serve points won50%69%Return points won31%50%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved3 of 71 of 1Aces25Double faults42
2026-10-18	Cali	Clay	B. Munk Mesa	1.24	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 AlvesMesaPoints won55%45%Serve points won71%69%Return points won31%29%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved3 of 30 of 2Aces72Double faults10
2026-10-14	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	T. Seyboth Wild	5.67	83%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 AlvesWildPoints won46%54%Serve points won63%71%Return points won29%37%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 3Aces514Double faults46
2026-10-12	Santa Cruz 2	Clay	B. Fernandez	1.41	67%	WON
Games in each set6-1 3-6 6-3 AlvesFernandezPoints won54%46%Serve points won68%59%Return points won41%32%Games held12 of 139 of 12Break points saved2 of 38 of 11Aces44Double faults36
2026-10-05	Antofagasta	Clay	J. Pereira	1.17	81%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 AlvesPereiraPoints won43%57%Serve points won51%65%Return points won35%49%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved6 of 103 of 4Aces41Double faults30
2026-10-04	Antofagasta	Clay	B. De La Pena	1.01	94%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-1 AlvesPenaPoints won64%36%Serve points won59%31%Return points won69%41%Games held5 of 80 of 7Break points saved1 of 45 of 12Aces32Double faults13
2026-10-01	Curitiba	Clay	G. Villanueva	1.40	66%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 AlvesVillanuevaPoints won37%63%Serve points won54%84%Return points won16%46%Games held5 of 98 of 8Break points saved1 of 50 of 0Aces46Double faults22
2026-09-29	Curitiba	Clay	J. Pereira	1.08	86%	WON
Games in each set6-2 1-6 6-4 AlvesPereiraPoints won51%49%Serve points won65%65%Return points won35%35%Games held10 of 139 of 12Break points saved7 of 103 of 6Aces105Double faults61
2026-09-27	M15 Curitiba (Brazil)	Clay	P. Sakamoto	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2
2026-09-26	M15 Curitiba (Brazil)	Clay	W. Leite	1.09	88%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 AlvesLeitePoints won59%41%Serve points won85%57%Return points won43%15%Games held10 of 107 of 10Break points saved3 of 35 of 8

F. Misolic — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-01	Costa do Sauipe	Clay	M. Zormann Da Silva	RET	—	—	WON
Games in each set3-2 MisolicSilvaPoints won62%38%Serve points won92%73%Return points won27%8%Games held3 of 32 of 2Aces10Double faults00
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	A. Hernandez		1.17	81%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 MisolicHernandezPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%73%Return points won27%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved7 of 103 of 4Aces93Double faults21
2026-10-25	Guayaquil	Clay	M. Baquero		1.02	90%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-1 MisolicBaqueroPoints won68%32%Serve points won82%42%Return points won58%18%Games held7 of 71 of 6Break points saved0 of 06 of 11Aces21Double faults22
2026-10-23	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	M. Ribecai		1.74	56%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 1-6 MisolicRibecaiPoints won37%63%Serve points won35%61%Return points won39%65%Games held2 of 86 of 7Break points saved1 of 76 of 7Aces10Double faults02
2026-10-21	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	I. Almazan Valiente		1.40	69%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-3 6-3 MisolicValientePoints won51%49%Serve points won51%49%Return points won51%49%Games held8 of 146 of 14Break points saved11 of 1717 of 25Aces10Double faults65
2026-10-20	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	F. Gill		1.93	50%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-1 MisolicGillPoints won56%44%Serve points won71%58%Return points won42%29%Games held9 of 97 of 10Break points saved3 of 38 of 11Aces71Double faults05
2026-10-19	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	D. Siniakov		1.33	72%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 MisolicSiniakovPoints won60%40%Serve points won69%48%Return points won52%31%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved5 of 68 of 13Aces71Double faults33
2026-10-18	Florence (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	D. Recek		1.27	75%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 MisolicRecekPoints won64%36%Serve points won74%44%Return points won56%26%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved3 of 45 of 10Aces43Double faults00
2026-10-05	Braga	Clay	P. Schoen		1.53	62%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 2-6 MisolicSchoenPoints won39%61%Serve points won44%67%Return points won33%56%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved11 of 160 of 0Aces02Double faults41
2026-10-04	Braga	Clay	T. Esculcas		—	—	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-0 MisolicEsculcasPoints won69%31%Serve points won74%38%Return points won62%26%Games held8 of 82 of 6Break points saved2 of 21 of 5Aces20Double faults34

Common questions

Who is favourite, Mateus Alves or Filip Misolic?

Filip Misolic is favourite at 1.34, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Mateus Alves vs Filip Misolic?

Mateus Alves is 3.29 and Filip Misolic is 1.34, the prices we recorded for the Costa do Sauipe match.

Who will win Mateus Alves vs Filip Misolic?

Our model makes it Filip Misolic to win at 1.34 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Silva v Midon Vera v Rocha Cecchinato v Comesana Dellien v Bueno Acosta v Almeida Heide v Justo