ATPHard (Indoor)Brussels2026-10-21 10:00

Martin Damm v Francisco Cerundolo

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

F. Cerundolo to win1.44

Worth backing at 1.44 or bigger · our chance 70% · market 34/66, us 30/70

F. Cerundolo is 6-4 over the last ten and 26-14 on hard this season. M. Damm is 4-6 over the last ten and 28-20 on hard this season.

The pick is F. Cerundolo to win. We make it a 70% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.44 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

M. Damm		F. Cerundolo
104	Ranking	20
4-6	Last 10	6-4
WLWLL	Last 5	LWLWW
-0.5	V the odds	+1.1
34-28	Season	37-22
28-20	Hard 2026	26-14
3	Last 7 days	0
2d	Days rest	9d
2	Wins here	0
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

M. Damm2.7534%

F. CerundoloFAV1.4466%

Market says66% Cerundolo

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

M. DammWLWLL

F. CerundoloLWLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

M. Damm

F. Cerundolo

34-28

28-20

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

37-22

26-14

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Martin Damm

USA

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

104

USA

31–26

17–15

7–6

7–5

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Argentina

35–19

13–10

15–8

5–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

M. Damm — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	Y. Hanfmann	2.04	52%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 DammHanfmannPoints won57%43%Serve points won81%67%Return points won33%19%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved0 of 03 of 5Aces118Double faults23
2026-10-18	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	A. Guerrieri	1.35	71%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-6 3-6 DammGuerrieriPoints won48%52%Serve points won62%65%Return points won35%38%Games held13 of 1714 of 16Break points saved5 of 97 of 9Aces1413Double faults65
2026-10-17	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	B. Gadamauri	1.17	82%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 DammGadamauriPoints won59%41%Serve points won74%60%Return points won40%26%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved5 of 51 of 4Aces75Double faults03
2026-10-05	Shanghai	Hard	P. Kotov	1.42	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 7-6 3-6 DammKotovPoints won47%53%Serve points won71%78%Return points won22%29%Games held15 of 1716 of 16Break points saved4 of 62 of 2Aces279Double faults22
2026-09-28	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-2 1-6 1-6 DammFilsPoints won43%57%Serve points won54%71%Return points won29%46%Games held6 of 119 of 11Break points saved4 of 91 of 3Aces86Double faults02
2026-09-26	Chengdu	Hard	H. Hurkacz	3.19	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 3-6 4-6 DammHurkaczPoints won46%54%Serve points won65%73%Return points won27%35%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved2 of 54 of 6Aces1813Double faults32
2026-09-24	Chengdu	Hard	S. Mochizuki	1.56	62%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 DammMochizukiPoints won58%42%Serve points won65%51%Return points won49%35%Games held8 of 94 of 8Break points saved4 of 52 of 6Aces135Double faults22
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	F. Tiafoe	4.47	78%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-3 3-6 4-6 DammTiafoePoints won50%50%Serve points won66%66%Return points won34%34%Games held21 of 2422 of 24Break points saved6 of 94 of 6Aces2812Double faults116
2026-08-27	Winston-Salem	Hard	F. Marozsan	2.14	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 3-6 3-6 DammMarozsanPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held10 of 1311 of 13Break points saved1 of 44 of 6Aces115Double faults52
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	D. Medvedev	4.08	76%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 DammMedvedevPoints won55%45%Serve points won73%66%Return points won34%27%Games held11 of 118 of 10Break points saved2 of 21 of 3Aces810Double faults54

F. Cerundolo — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	J. Mensik	2.39	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 2-6 CerundoloMensikPoints won46%54%Serve points won61%68%Return points won32%39%Games held10 of 1312 of 13Break points saved2 of 56 of 7Aces58Double faults20
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	R. Safiullin	1.96	50%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-3 CerundoloSafiullinPoints won56%44%Serve points won77%60%Return points won40%23%Games held9 of 108 of 11Break points saved1 of 23 of 6Aces89Double faults02
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	D. Medvedev	3.09	69%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 CerundoloMedvedevPoints won44%56%Serve points won59%76%Return points won24%41%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved7 of 91 of 2Aces010Double faults21
2026-10-03	Beijing	Hard	J. Mensik	2.74	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 CerundoloMensikPoints won55%45%Serve points won72%60%Return points won40%28%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 06 of 9Aces03Double faults11
2026-10-01	Beijing	Hard	B. Van De Zandschulp	1.67	57%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-4 6-3 CerundoloZandschulpPoints won51%49%Serve points won63%61%Return points won39%37%Games held13 of 1512 of 16Break points saved11 of 1310 of 14Aces211Double faults25
2026-09-25	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	C. Ruud	1.97	52%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 4-6 8-10 CerundoloRuudPoints won50%50%Serve points won69%68%Return points won32%31%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved3 of 41 of 1Aces56Double faults42
2026-09-20	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	M. Alkaya	1.13	86%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-0 CerundoloAlkayaPoints won71%29%Serve points won80%35%Return points won65%20%Games held6 of 61 of 7Break points saved0 of 02 of 8Aces11Double faults01
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	Y. Erel	1.18	82%	WON
Games in each set6-0 6-4 CerundoloErelPoints won61%39%Serve points won76%53%Return points won47%24%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved1 of 18 of 11Aces62Double faults02
2026-09-07	US Open	Hard	A. Blockx	2.41	59%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-4 5-7 5-7 CerundoloBlockxPoints won49%51%Serve points won61%62%Return points won38%39%Games held16 of 2218 of 21Break points saved6 of 1214 of 17Aces510Double faults67
2026-09-05	US Open	Hard	T. Fritz	6.31	85%	WON
Games in each set3-6 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4 CerundoloFritzPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%61%Return points won39%38%Games held19 of 2418 of 24Break points saved7 of 1213 of 19Aces1012Double faults95

Common questions

Who is favourite, Martin Damm or Francisco Cerundolo?

Francisco Cerundolo is favourite at 1.44, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Martin Damm vs Francisco Cerundolo?

Martin Damm is 2.75 and Francisco Cerundolo is 1.44, the prices we recorded for the Brussels match.

Who will win Martin Damm vs Francisco Cerundolo?

Our model makes it Francisco Cerundolo to win at 1.44 (Solid confidence).

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