Lorenzo Giustino v Matthew Donald
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanVOIDM. Donald is 6-4 over the last ten. L. Giustino is 6-4 over the last ten. L. Giustino has played 4 matches in seven days. M. Donald has played 4 matches in seven days.
The pick is M. Donald to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 75% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.33 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| L. Giustino | M. Donald | |
|---|---|---|
| 212 | Ranking | - |
| 6-4 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WLWWL | Last 5 | WWWLW |
| +0.5 | V the odds | +0.5 |
| 28-26 | Season | 39-24 |
| - | Surface | - |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 3 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
L. Giustino — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | — | M. Donald | 1 - 1 RET | 1.84 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | — | J. Sperle | 2 - 1 | 1.39 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | M25 Sabadell 2 | Clay | G. Campana Lee | 0 - 2 | 1.62 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-24 | M25 Sabadell 2 | Clay | M. Ponce de Leon Gomila | 2 - 0 | 1.20 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | M25 Sabadell 2 | Clay | E. Carrascosa Diaz | 2 - 0 | 1.08 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | G. Dimitrov | 0 - 2 | 7.43 | 87% | LOST |
| 2026-08-21 | Sion (Switzerland) | Clay | B. Hassan | 1 - 0 RET | 1.65 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Sion (Switzerland) | Clay | D. Kuzmanov | 2 - 1 | 2.17 | 55% | WON |
| 2026-08-19 | Sion (Switzerland) | Clay | H. Bernet | 2 - 1 | 2.31 | 58% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Sion (Switzerland) | Clay | T. Cigarran | 2 - 0 | 1.15 | 82% | WON |
M. Donald — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | — | L. Giustino | 1 - 1 RET | 1.98 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | — | O. Wallin | 0 - 2 | 2.01 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | — | D. Sakellaridis | 2 - 0 | 1.22 | 75% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Bari (Italy) - Qualification | — | C. Cordoba | 2 - 0 | 1.31 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | D. Blanch | 2 - 0 | 2.56 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-09-21 | Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | G. Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | 2.50 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-13 | Biella | Clay | G. Oradini | 1 - 2 | 1.61 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-09-07 | Tulln | Clay | M. Brunold | 2 - 0 | 2.56 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | Tulln | Clay | J. Sels | 0 - 2 | 1.43 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | Augsburg | Clay | B. Hassan | 0 - 2 | 2.09 | 55% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Lorenzo Giustino or Matthew Donald?
Lorenzo Giustino is favourite at 1.84, which is a 52% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew Donald?
Lorenzo Giustino is 1.84 and Matthew Donald is 1.98, the prices we recorded for the Bari (Italy) match.
Who will win Lorenzo Giustino vs Matthew Donald?
Our model makes it Matthew Donald to win a set (Lean confidence).