ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-10-24 11:00

Jacob Fearnley v Pablo Carreno-Busta

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

SolidLOST

P. Carreno-Busta to win2.46

Worth backing at 2.18 or bigger · our chance 46% · market 61/39, us 54/46

P. Carreno-Busta is 5-5 over the last ten and 14-13 on hard this season. J. Fearnley is 6-4 over the last ten and 20-19 on hard this season. J. Fearnley retired from a match in the last month. J. Fearnley has played 4 matches in seven days.

The pick is P. Carreno-Busta to win. We make it a 46% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.18 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

J. Fearnley		P. Carreno-Busta
96	Ranking	65
6-4	Last 10	5-5
LWLWW	Last 5	LWWLW
+0.4	V the odds	+0.5
35-26	Season	32-21
20-19	Hard 2026	14-13
4	Last 7 days	0
3d	Days rest	12d
0	Wins here	0
retired	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

J. FearnleyFAV1.5562%

P. Carreno-Busta2.5238%

Market says62% Fearnley

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

J. FearnleyWLWLW

P. Carreno-BustaLLWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

J. Fearnley1

P. Carreno-Busta0

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-10-24	Vienna	J. FearnleyvP. Carreno-Busta	6-4 3-6 6-3

This season & this event

J. Fearnley

P. Carreno-Busta

36-26

21-19

Lost R32 to A. Zverev

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

32-22

14-14

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Jacob Fearnley

United Kingdom

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Spain

United Kingdom

30–24

16–17

2–3

11–4

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Spain

30–20

11–12

18–7

1–1

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

J. Fearnley — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-24	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	P. Carreno-Busta		1.55	62%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 FearnleyCarreno-BustaPoints won53%47%Serve points won68%61%Return points won39%32%Games held12 of 1411 of 14Break points saved4 of 64 of 7Aces81Double faults30
2026-10-21	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	C. Chidekh		1.93	50%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 FearnleyChidekhPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%68%Return points won32%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved7 of 100 of 1Aces85Double faults33
2026-10-19	Brussels	Hard (Indoor)	H. Gaston		1.70	57%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-0 FearnleyGastonPoints won61%39%Serve points won71%48%Return points won52%29%Games held8 of 83 of 7Break points saved3 of 35 of 9Aces20Double faults11
2026-10-18	Olbia	Hard	D. Dzumhur		1.39	70%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 FearnleyDzumhurPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%68%Return points won32%34%Games held8 of 1010 of 11Break points saved5 of 73 of 4Aces21Double faults23
2026-10-17	Olbia	Hard	L. Nardi		1.45	67%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 FearnleyNardiPoints won58%42%Serve points won67%51%Return points won49%33%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved0 of 13 of 7Aces22Double faults15
2026-10-16	Olbia	Hard	M. Mrva		1.37	71%	WON
Games in each set6-0 7-6 FearnleyMrvaPoints won61%39%Serve points won76%53%Return points won47%24%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved1 of 22 of 6Aces12Double faults01
2026-10-15	Olbia	Hard	J. Kumstat		1.44	67%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 FearnleyKumstatPoints won57%43%Serve points won74%53%Return points won47%26%Games held8 of 96 of 10Break points saved2 of 35 of 9Aces42Double faults30
2026-10-13	Olbia	Hard	G. Loffhagen		1.74	55%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-3 FearnleyLoffhagenPoints won61%39%Serve points won71%48%Return points won52%29%Games held7 of 83 of 8Break points saved6 of 75 of 10Aces43Double faults31
2026-10-01	Porto	Clay	I. Montes-De La Torre	RET	—	—	LOST
Games in each set6-7 0-3 FearnleyTorrePoints won45%55%Serve points won54%67%Return points won33%46%Games held5 of 86 of 7Break points saved12 of 150 of 1Aces50Double faults74
2026-09-29	Porto	Clay	A. Sanchez Quilez		1.31	74%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-2 FearnleyQuilezPoints won62%38%Serve points won67%42%Return points won58%33%Games held6 of 72 of 8Break points saved1 of 27 of 13Aces21Double faults40

P. Carreno-Busta — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-24	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	J. Fearnley		2.52	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-6 Carreno-BustaFearnleyPoints won47%53%Serve points won61%68%Return points won32%39%Games held11 of 1412 of 14Break points saved4 of 74 of 6Aces18Double faults03
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	F. Auger-Aliassime		3.79	74%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-4 1-6 Carreno-BustaAuger-AliassimePoints won43%57%Serve points won58%73%Return points won27%42%Games held9 of 1312 of 13Break points saved5 of 92 of 3Aces57Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	A. Tabilo		2.62	63%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 Carreno-BustaTabiloPoints won51%49%Serve points won65%64%Return points won36%35%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved3 of 53 of 5Aces89Double faults32
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	M. Navone		2.18	55%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-5 6-3 Carreno-BustaNavonePoints won51%49%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held14 of 1612 of 15Break points saved12 of 147 of 10Aces66Double faults12
2026-10-01	Beijing	Hard	D. Medvedev		4.29	77%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 Carreno-BustaMedvedevPoints won40%60%Serve points won54%76%Return points won24%46%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 63 of 3Aces112Double faults12
2026-09-29	Beijing	Hard	A. Mannarino		1.59	61%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 Carreno-BustaMannarinoPoints won57%43%Serve points won75%64%Return points won36%25%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved3 of 44 of 7Aces15Double faults00
2026-09-28	Beijing	Hard	Y. Zhou		—	—	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 Carreno-BustaZhouPoints won56%44%Serve points won66%56%Return points won44%34%Games held10 of 117 of 10Break points saved4 of 53 of 6Aces36Double faults26
2026-08-30	US Open	Hard	J. Lehecka		4.59	79%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-7 6-4 2-6 Carreno-BustaLeheckaPoints won46%54%Serve points won55%63%Return points won37%45%Games held11 of 1815 of 19Break points saved7 of 143 of 7Aces010Double faults77
2026-08-24	Winston-Salem	Hard	D. Vallejo	RET	1.74	56%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 0-3 Carreno-BustaVallejoPoints won43%57%Serve points won48%62%Return points won38%52%Games held3 of 75 of 6Break points saved5 of 92 of 3Aces22Double faults43
2026-08-16	Cincinnati	Hard	A. Rublev		2.85	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-6 Carreno-BustaRublevPoints won46%54%Serve points won56%66%Return points won34%44%Games held6 of 108 of 9Break points saved0 of 41 of 2Aces46Double faults73

Common questions

Who is favourite, Jacob Fearnley or Pablo Carreno-Busta?

Jacob Fearnley is favourite at 1.55, which is a 62% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno-Busta?

Jacob Fearnley is 1.55 and Pablo Carreno-Busta is 2.52, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

What is the head-to-head between Jacob Fearnley and Pablo Carreno-Busta?

They have met 1 time and Jacob Fearnley leads 1-0.

Who will win Jacob Fearnley vs Pablo Carreno-Busta?

Our model makes it Pablo Carreno-Busta to win at 2.46 (Solid confidence).

Also at this event

Kopriva v Neumayer Vallejo v Sonego Schwaerzler v Droguet Molcan v Medjedovic Marozsan v Sorger Moutet v Machac