ChallengerClayVilla Maria2026-11-04 14:00

Federico Coria v Valerio Aboian

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Strong

V. Aboian to win1.73

Worth backing at 1.65 or bigger · our chance 61% · market 46/54, us 39/61

V. Aboian is 8-2 over the last ten and 44-27 on clay this season. F. Coria is 2-8 over the last ten and 6-11 on clay this season. V. Aboian has played 4 matches in seven days.

The pick is V. Aboian to win. We make it a 61% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.65 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

F. Coria		V. Aboian
833	Ranking	347
2-8	Last 10	8-2
WLLLW	Last 5	WLWWW
-1.7	V the odds	+4.4
7-14	Season	46-30
6-11	Clay 2026	44-27
1	Last 7 days	4
1d	Days rest	2d
1	Wins here	1
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

F. Coria2.0046%

V. AboianFAV1.7254%

Market says54% Aboian

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

F. CoriaWLLLW

V. AboianWLWWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

F. Coria

V. Aboian

7-14

6-11

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

46-30

44-27

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Federico Coria

Argentina

Valerio Aboian

Argentina

833

Argentina

6–12

0–1

5–10

1–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

347

Argentina

38–27

—

38–27

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

F. Coria — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-03	Villa Maria	Clay	I. Dreycopp	1.24	77%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-0 CoriaDreycoppPoints won63%37%Serve points won66%39%Return points won61%34%Games held6 of 72 of 8Break points saved0 of 16 of 12Aces00Double faults14
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	C. Ugo Carabelli	4.40	78%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 2-6 CoriaCarabelliPoints won42%58%Serve points won54%72%Return points won28%46%Games held6 of 109 of 10Break points saved4 of 81 of 2Aces55Double faults61
2026-10-19	Cali	Clay	N. Mejia	3.60	73%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 CoriaMejiaPoints won47%53%Serve points won51%57%Return points won43%49%Games held7 of 118 of 11Break points saved2 of 66 of 9Aces55Double faults21
2026-09-24	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	E. Ribeiro	2.15	56%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 5-7 CoriaRibeiroPoints won47%53%Serve points won64%73%Return points won27%36%Games held9 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 2Aces34Double faults31
2026-09-21	Buenos Aires 3	Clay	L. Ratti	1.87	51%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 7-5 CoriaRattiPoints won54%46%Serve points won57%52%Return points won48%43%Games held11 of 178 of 16Break points saved17 of 233 of 11Aces12Double faults05
2026-08-25	US Open	Hard	C. Chidekh	8.75	89%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 CoriaChidekhPoints won41%59%Serve points won43%62%Return points won38%57%Games held2 of 86 of 8Break points saved5 of 111 of 3Aces22Double faults63
2026-07-28	San Marino	Clay	F. Forti	2.22	56%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 CoriaFortiPoints won42%58%Serve points won55%75%Return points won25%45%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved7 of 102 of 2Aces14Double faults41
2026-07-18	Kitzbuhel	clay	V. Sachko	3.28	71%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 CoriaSachkoPoints won40%60%Serve points won51%75%Return points won25%49%Games held6 of 108 of 10Break points saved4 of 80 of 2Aces53Double faults90
2026-07-12	Bastad	Clay	T. Daniel	2.82	66%	LOST
Games in each set0-6 2-6 CoriaDanielPoints won36%64%Serve points won41%68%Return points won32%59%Games held2 of 77 of 7Break points saved3 of 85 of 5Aces21Double faults20
2026-07-09	Liege (Belgium) - Qualification	Clay	G. Den Ouden	3.16	70%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 2-6 3-6 CoriaOudenPoints won49%51%Serve points won58%58%Return points won42%42%Games held7 of 129 of 13Break points saved8 of 138 of 12Aces32Double faults11

V. Aboian — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-11-02	Villa Maria	Clay	A. Magadan	1.29	74%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-1 6-1 AboianMagadanPoints won56%44%Serve points won63%51%Return points won49%37%Games held10 of 126 of 12Break points saved6 of 88 of 14Aces42Double faults02
2026-10-31	Guayaquil	Clay	H. Dellien	4.60	79%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 2-6 AboianDellienPoints won46%54%Serve points won58%66%Return points won34%42%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved3 of 66 of 7Aces22Double faults22
2026-10-30	Guayaquil	Clay	N. Hardt	2.40	60%	WON
Games in each set6-2 1-6 7-6 AboianHardtPoints won49%51%Serve points won64%64%Return points won36%36%Games held10 of 1311 of 14Break points saved3 of 63 of 6Aces120Double faults33
2026-10-29	Guayaquil	Clay	D. Dedura	3.85	75%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 AboianDeduraPoints won53%47%Serve points won58%53%Return points won47%42%Games held7 of 127 of 12Break points saved5 of 104 of 9Aces40Double faults10
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	F. Roncadelli	2.38	60%	WON
Games in each set6-3 2-6 6-2 AboianRoncadelliPoints won54%46%Serve points won57%50%Return points won50%43%Games held8 of 136 of 12Break points saved4 of 95 of 11Aces21Double faults02
2026-10-25	Cali	Clay	M. Pucinelli de Almeida	4.60	79%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 3-6 AboianAlmeidaPoints won45%55%Serve points won51%63%Return points won37%49%Games held7 of 118 of 10Break points saved7 of 118 of 10Aces32Double faults25
2026-10-24	Cali	Clay	F. Meligeni Alves	3.83	75%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 7-5 AboianAlvesPoints won51%49%Serve points won69%66%Return points won34%31%Games held13 of 1512 of 15Break points saved6 of 84 of 7Aces73Double faults21
2026-10-23	Cali	Clay	M. Tobon	2.50	62%	WON
Games in each set1-6 7-6 6-2 AboianTobonPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%62%Return points won38%38%Games held10 of 1311 of 14Break points saved3 of 63 of 6Aces111Double faults110
2026-10-22	Cali	Clay	M. Soto	2.05	53%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 AboianSotoPoints won61%39%Serve points won73%51%Return points won49%27%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved1 of 11 of 5Aces123Double faults14
2026-10-19	Cali	Clay	F. Mena	3.18	70%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-3 6-4 AboianMenaPoints won50%50%Serve points won63%63%Return points won37%37%Games held11 of 1410 of 13Break points saved3 of 65 of 8Aces22Double faults34

Common questions

Who is favourite, Federico Coria or Valerio Aboian?

Valerio Aboian is favourite at 1.72, which is a 54% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Federico Coria vs Valerio Aboian?

Federico Coria is 2.00 and Valerio Aboian is 1.72, the prices we recorded for the Villa Maria match.

Who will win Federico Coria vs Valerio Aboian?

Our model makes it Valerio Aboian to win at 1.73 (Strong confidence).

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