ChallengerClayLisbon2026-10-23 11:00

Elmer Moller v Henrique Rocha

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

H. Rocha to win1.53

Price too short today - wait for 1.67 or bigger · our chance 60% · market 40/60, us 40/60

H. Rocha is 8-2 over the last ten and 29-13 on clay this season. E. Moller is 7-3 over the last ten and 16-16 on clay this season. E. Moller took a medical timeout on 2026-10-10. The head to head is E. Moller 2-0.

The pick is H. Rocha to win. We make it a 60% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.67 or bigger. At 1.53 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

E. Moller		H. Rocha
163	Ranking	106
7-3	Last 10	8-2
WWLLW	Last 5	WWLWW
+2.1	V the odds	+0.6
25-26	Season	36-24
16-16	Clay 2026	29-13
2	Last 7 days	2
2d	Days rest	2d
2	Wins here	2
MTO	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 2-0

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

E. Moller2.3040%

H. RochaFAV1.5360%

Market says60% Rocha

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

E. MollerWWLLW

H. RochaWWLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

E. Moller2

H. Rocha0

Head to head2 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-10-01	Braga	H. RochavE. Moller	7-6 3-6 1-6
2024-11-09	Lima 2 Challenger Men	E. MollervH. Rocha	7-5 6-1

This season & this event

E. Moller

H. Rocha

25-26

16-16

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

36-24

29-13

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

No previous edition of this event found in the feed.

The players

Elmer Moller

Denmark

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

163

Denmark

23–26

2–6

19–18

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

106

Portugal

34–23

8–8

24–12

1–3

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

E. Moller — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Lisbon	Clay	M. Alcala Gurri	1.94	50%	WON
Games in each set6-4 2-6 6-3 MollerGurriPoints won50%50%Serve points won54%52%Return points won48%46%Games held8 of 138 of 14Break points saved4 of 94 of 10Aces23Double faults43
2026-10-19	Lisbon	Clay	T. Boyer	1.80	51%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 MollerBoyerPoints won57%43%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved6 of 73 of 7Aces21Double faults41
2026-10-12	Maia	Clay (Indoor)	L. Neumayer	2.07	53%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-4 2-6 MollerNeumayerPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%60%Return points won40%46%Games held8 of 1410 of 14Break points saved1 of 73 of 7Aces43Double faults21
2026-10-11	Braga	Clay	M. Dodig	3.01	68%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 3-6 2-6 MollerDodigPoints won47%53%Serve points won57%66%Return points won34%43%Games held9 of 1311 of 13Break points saved8 of 124 of 6Aces04Double faults51
2026-10-10	Braga	Clay	V. Gaubas	2.11	54%	WON
Games in each set6-2 4-6 6-4 MollerGaubasPoints won53%47%Serve points won61%53%Return points won47%39%Games held11 of 149 of 14Break points saved10 of 135 of 10Aces01Double faults52
2026-10-09	Braga	Clay	T. Pereira	1.47	66%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-2 6-1 MollerPereiraPoints won55%45%Serve points won56%45%Return points won55%44%Games held8 of 135 of 14Break points saved6 of 1110 of 19Aces32Double faults54
2026-10-07	Braga	Clay	Z. Piros	2.53	62%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-1 7-5 MollerPirosPoints won53%47%Serve points won51%45%Return points won55%49%Games held6 of 135 of 13Break points saved5 of 126 of 14Aces32Double faults65
2026-10-05	Braga	Clay	T. Monteiro	2.25	59%	WON
Games in each set7-6 5-7 6-4 MollerMonteiroPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%54%Return points won46%38%Games held11 of 1711 of 17Break points saved8 of 1412 of 18Aces45Double faults69
2026-09-29	Bari (Italy) - Qualification	Clay	C. Taberner	1.92	50%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MollerTabernerPoints won43%57%Serve points won46%60%Return points won40%54%Games held4 of 97 of 10Break points saved7 of 122 of 5Aces12Double faults23
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	I. Radulov	1.43	65%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 MollerRadulovPoints won57%43%Serve points won65%49%Return points won51%35%Games held7 of 94 of 9Break points saved5 of 75 of 10Aces82Double faults20

H. Rocha — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-21	Lisbon	Clay	T. Monteiro	1.52	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 RochaMonteiroPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%56%Return points won44%38%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved4 of 86 of 11Aces33Double faults33
2026-10-19	Lisbon	Clay	D. Blanch	1.29	74%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-5 RochaBlanchPoints won55%45%Serve points won59%50%Return points won50%41%Games held8 of 116 of 11Break points saved7 of 103 of 8Aces25Double faults21
2026-10-12	Maia	Clay (Indoor)	S. Nagal	1.31	74%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 5-7 6-7 RochaNagalPoints won52%48%Serve points won62%58%Return points won42%38%Games held13 of 1712 of 16Break points saved5 of 90 of 4Aces33Double faults12
2026-10-04	Porto	Clay	I. Montes-De La Torre	—	—	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-4 6-4 RochaTorrePoints won52%48%Serve points won58%52%Return points won48%42%Games held8 of 148 of 14Break points saved2 of 83 of 9Aces40Double faults29
2026-10-02	Porto	Clay	A. Holmgren	1.42	68%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 RochaHolmgrenPoints won54%46%Serve points won76%69%Return points won31%24%Games held11 of 119 of 10Break points saved2 of 24 of 5Aces44Double faults01
2026-09-30	Porto	Clay	M. Poljicak	1.27	76%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-0 RochaPoljicakPoints won62%38%Serve points won68%43%Return points won57%32%Games held7 of 72 of 7Break points saved2 of 27 of 12Aces51Double faults57
2026-09-28	Porto	Clay	C. Cretu	1.21	78%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-3 RochaCretuPoints won54%46%Serve points won54%46%Return points won54%46%Games held6 of 104 of 11Break points saved6 of 105 of 12Aces41Double faults16
2026-09-11	Seville	Clay	D. Lajovic	1.92	51%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 RochaLajovicPoints won45%55%Serve points won64%72%Return points won28%36%Games held7 of 109 of 10Break points saved2 of 53 of 4Aces11Double faults12
2026-09-10	Seville	Clay	S. Rodriguez Taverna	1.08	89%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-1 RochaTavernaPoints won58%42%Serve points won63%45%Return points won55%37%Games held6 of 83 of 9Break points saved6 of 88 of 14Aces22Double faults11
2026-09-08	Seville	Clay	C. Taberner	1.50	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 RochaTabernerPoints won51%49%Serve points won65%63%Return points won37%35%Games held9 of 117 of 10Break points saved3 of 57 of 10Aces41Double faults51

Common questions

Who is favourite, Elmer Moller or Henrique Rocha?

Henrique Rocha is favourite at 1.53, which is a 60% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Elmer Moller vs Henrique Rocha?

Elmer Moller is 2.30 and Henrique Rocha is 1.53, the prices we recorded for the Lisbon match.

What is the head-to-head between Elmer Moller and Henrique Rocha?

They have met 2 times and Elmer Moller leads 2-0.

Who will win Elmer Moller vs Henrique Rocha?

Our model makes it Henrique Rocha to win at 1.53 (Lean confidence).

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