WTAHardTokyo · Quarter-finals2026-10-30 06:30

Elena Rybakina v Leylah Fernandez

The market

E. RybakinaFAV1.2973%

L. Fernandez3.5027%

Market says73% Rybakina

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

E. RybakinaWWWWW

L. FernandezWWLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

E. Rybakina4

L. Fernandez2

Head to head6 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-10-25	Ningbo	E. RybakinavL. Fernandez	6-2 6-2
2026-04-17	Stuttgart	E. RybakinavL. Fernandez	6-7 6-4 7-6
2025-10-23	Tokyo	L. FernandezvE. Rybakina	4-6 3-6
2025-07-26	Washington	L. FernandezvE. Rybakina	6-7 7-6 7-6
2024-08-15	WTA Cincinnati	L. FernandezvE. Rybakina	3-6 7-6 6-4
2024-02-15	WTA Doha	L. FernandezvE. Rybakina	4-6 2-6

This season & this event

E. Rybakina

Defending semi

L. Fernandez

54-14

44-11

Lost SF to L. Noskova

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

30-26

24-18

Lost R16 to E. Rybakina

Lost QF to Q. Zheng

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Elena Rybakina

Kazakhstan

Leylah Fernandez

Canada

Kazakhstan

46–13

33–7

10–3

3–3

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Canada

17–23

8–12

8–7

1–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

E. Rybakina — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-28	Tokyo	Hard	Y. Putintseva		1.15	85%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-3 RybakinaPutintsevaPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%57%Return points won43%32%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved1 of 12 of 5Aces61Double faults10
2026-10-25	Ningbo	Hard	L. Fernandez		1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-2 RybakinaFernandezPoints won59%41%Serve points won67%51%Return points won49%33%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved4 of 41 of 5Aces32Double faults23
2026-10-24	Ningbo	Hard	D. Shnaider		1.57	62%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-5 RybakinaShnaiderPoints won53%47%Serve points won65%61%Return points won39%35%Games held10 of 117 of 10Break points saved0 of 13 of 6Aces61Double faults56
2026-10-23	Ningbo	Hard	K. Kawa		1.05	92%	WON
Games in each set6-1 3-6 6-1 RybakinaKawaPoints won57%43%Serve points won64%49%Return points won51%36%Games held9 of 125 of 11Break points saved7 of 1011 of 17Aces82Double faults63
2026-10-21	Ningbo	Hard	P. Kudermetova	RET	1.12	87%	WON
Games in each set5-0 RybakinaKudermetovaPoints won65%35%Serve points won73%38%Return points won62%27%Games held2 of 20 of 3Break points saved0 of 06 of 9Aces10Double faults17
2026-10-02	Beijing	Hard	A. Charaeva		1.05	92%	LOST
Games in each set6-3 4-6 3-6 RybakinaCharaevaPoints won49%51%Serve points won56%60%Return points won40%44%Games held9 of 1410 of 14Break points saved3 of 82 of 6Aces36Double faults74
2026-09-12	US Open	Hard	A. Sabalenka		2.40	59%	WON
Games in each set6-4 5-7 6-2 RybakinaSabalenkaPoints won53%47%Serve points won71%61%Return points won39%29%Games held14 of 1512 of 15Break points saved2 of 39 of 12Aces126Double faults53
2026-09-11	US Open	Hard	C. Gauff		1.92	51%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-4 6-4 RybakinaGauffPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%61%Return points won39%33%Games held11 of 1411 of 15Break points saved2 of 52 of 6Aces54Double faults24
2026-09-09	US Open	Hard	Q. Zheng		1.35	72%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-1 6-4 RybakinaZhengPoints won53%47%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved3 of 410 of 13Aces57Double faults54
2026-09-07	US Open	Hard	N. Osaka		1.78	55%	WON
Games in each set6-1 6-4 RybakinaOsakaPoints won59%41%Serve points won73%54%Return points won46%27%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved1 of 15 of 8Aces72Double faults15

L. Fernandez — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-28	Tokyo	Hard	E. Mertens	2.06	53%	WON
Games in each set6-2 7-6 FernandezMertensPoints won52%48%Serve points won62%57%Return points won43%38%Games held8 of 106 of 10Break points saved6 of 87 of 11Aces02Double faults34
2026-10-27	Tokyo	Hard	H. Sakatsume	1.22	80%	WON
Games in each set6-2 6-4 FernandezSakatsumePoints won57%43%Serve points won71%52%Return points won48%29%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved4 of 55 of 9Aces21Double faults04
2026-10-25	Ningbo	Hard	E. Rybakina	3.56	73%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 FernandezRybakinaPoints won41%59%Serve points won51%67%Return points won33%49%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved1 of 54 of 4Aces23Double faults32
2026-10-24	Ningbo	Hard	M. Bouzkova	2.03	52%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-5 FernandezBouzkovaPoints won56%44%Serve points won52%41%Return points won59%48%Games held5 of 103 of 11Break points saved10 of 1510 of 18Aces30Double faults32
2026-10-23	Ningbo	Hard	E. Alexandrova	2.27	57%	WON
Games in each set4-6 6-2 6-1 FernandezAlexandrovaPoints won57%43%Serve points won67%54%Return points won46%33%Games held12 of 138 of 12Break points saved3 of 45 of 9Aces35Double faults24
2026-10-21	Ningbo	Hard	A. Sasnovich	1.47	66%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-7 6-3 FernandezSasnovichPoints won52%48%Serve points won57%53%Return points won47%43%Games held11 of 169 of 17Break points saved1 of 67 of 15Aces13Double faults86
2026-10-19	Ningbo	Hard	E. Mertens	2.18	55%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-3 7-5 FernandezMertensPoints won51%49%Serve points won51%50%Return points won50%49%Games held8 of 157 of 14Break points saved7 of 145 of 12Aces10Double faults117
2026-10-15	Wuhan	Hard	J. Ostapenko	1.76	55%	LOST
Games in each set1-6 6-1 4-6 FernandezOstapenkoPoints won48%52%Serve points won55%61%Return points won39%45%Games held7 of 128 of 12Break points saved12 of 172 of 6Aces52Double faults77
2026-10-14	Wuhan	Hard	H. Shi	—	—	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 FernandezShiPoints won56%44%Serve points won66%60%Return points won40%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved7 of 81 of 4Aces01Double faults72
2026-10-12	Wuhan	Hard	E. Alexandrova	2.10	54%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-3 FernandezAlexandrovaPoints won52%48%Serve points won56%52%Return points won48%44%Games held9 of 148 of 14Break points saved14 of 193 of 9Aces81Double faults59

Common questions

Who is favourite, Elena Rybakina or Leylah Fernandez?

Elena Rybakina is favourite at 1.29, which is a 73% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez?

Elena Rybakina is 1.29 and Leylah Fernandez is 3.50, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.

What is the head-to-head between Elena Rybakina and Leylah Fernandez?

They have met 6 times and Elena Rybakina leads 4-2.

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