Daniil Medvedev v Nikoloz Basilashvili
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanD. Medvedev is 9-1 over the last ten and 39-10 on hard this season. N. Basilashvili is 8-2 over the last ten and 20-16 on hard this season. D. Medvedev took a medical timeout on 2026-10-12. N. Basilashvili retired from a match in the last month. N. Basilashvili has played 5 matches in seven days. The head to head is D. Medvedev 1-0.
The pick is D. Medvedev to win. We make it a 79% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.28 or bigger. At 1.20 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Medvedev | N. Basilashvili | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ranking | 124 |
| 9-1 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WWWLW | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| +1.4 | V the odds | +3.0 |
| 48-17 | Season | 32-30 |
| 39-10 | Hard 2026 | 20-16 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 5 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 3 | Wins here | 6 |
| MTODefending title | Fitness | retired |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-26 | Vienna | D. MedvedevvN. Basilashvili | 6-2 6-2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Medvedev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | RET | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
Games in each set6-3 MedvedevBublikPoints won61%39%Serve points won87%67%Return points won33%13%Games held5 of 53 of 4Break points saved0 of 01 of 2Aces93Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Atmane | 1.16 | 84% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MedvedevAtmanePoints won58%42%Serve points won82%60%Return points won40%18%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 06 of 8Aces54Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | S. Shimabukuro | 1.06 | 91% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-1 MedvedevShimabukuroPoints won66%34%Serve points won79%46%Return points won54%21%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved3 of 35 of 10Aces71Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Jodar | 1.55 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MedvedevJodarPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%60%Return points won40%46%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved3 of 74 of 6Aces36Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Paul | 1.47 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 1-6 6-3 MedvedevPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won60%57%Return points won43%40%Games held9 of 129 of 13Break points saved11 of 148 of 12Aces167Double faults81 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 1.45 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-5 MedvedevTsitsipasPoints won54%46%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces84Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Svrcina | 1.13 | 86% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 MedvedevSvrcinaPoints won56%44%Serve points won64%50%Return points won50%36%Games held7 of 84 of 9Break points saved3 of 44 of 9Aces62Double faults56 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | J-L. Struff | 1.14 | 85% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 6-4 6-3 MedvedevStruffPoints won55%45%Serve points won72%62%Return points won38%28%Games held13 of 1511 of 14Break points saved4 of 63 of 6Aces217Double faults51 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 1.42 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-3 MedvedevCerundoloPoints won56%44%Serve points won76%59%Return points won41%24%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved1 of 27 of 9Aces100Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-10-03 | Beijing | Hard | J-L. Struff | 1.17 | 83% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-3 MedvedevStruffPoints won55%45%Serve points won74%58%Return points won42%26%Games held9 of 97 of 10Break points saved2 of 26 of 9Aces106Double faults22 | |||||||
N. Basilashvili — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | S. Tsitsipas | 2.96 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 BasilashviliTsitsipasPoints won54%46%Serve points won75%67%Return points won33%25%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved3 of 36 of 8Aces711Double faults40 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Mannarino | 1.77 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-1 BasilashviliMannarinoPoints won57%43%Serve points won68%55%Return points won45%32%Games held8 of 84 of 8Break points saved3 of 34 of 8Aces116Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | F. Diaz Acosta | 1.43 | 68% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-4 BasilashviliAcostaPoints won61%39%Serve points won76%53%Return points won47%24%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved1 of 20 of 4Aces146Double faults30 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | M. Cilic | 1.67 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 7-5 BasilashviliCilicPoints won55%45%Serve points won65%54%Return points won46%35%Games held8 of 105 of 10Break points saved3 of 54 of 9Aces138Double faults35 | |||||||
| 2026-10-18 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Walton | 1.72 | 56% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-6 BasilashviliWaltonPoints won53%47%Serve points won76%64%Return points won36%24%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved0 of 011 of 12Aces1115Double faults11 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Daniel | 1.65 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 7-5 BasilashviliDanielPoints won59%41%Serve points won71%53%Return points won47%29%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 22 of 6Aces74Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-07 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Mannarino | RET | 1.97 | 51% | LOST |
Games in each set3-6 2-2 BasilashviliMannarinoPoints won41%59%Serve points won65%85%Return points won15%35%Games held5 of 67 of 7Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces83Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Shanghai | Hard | L. Draxl | 1.68 | 57% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 7-5 6-4 BasilashviliDraxlPoints won52%48%Serve points won67%64%Return points won36%33%Games held15 of 1714 of 17Break points saved4 of 65 of 8Aces1112Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Ilagan | 1.42 | 68% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-7 7-5 BasilashviliIlaganPoints won50%50%Serve points won62%60%Return points won40%38%Games held14 of 1711 of 16Break points saved4 of 77 of 12Aces119Double faults73 | |||||||
| 2026-09-28 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Davidovich Fokina | — | — | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 4-6 3-6 BasilashviliFokinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won71%66%Return points won34%29%Games held11 of 1413 of 15Break points saved2 of 57 of 9Aces136Double faults13 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Daniil Medvedev or Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Daniil Medvedev is favourite at 1.20, which is a 79% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Daniil Medvedev is 1.20 and Nikoloz Basilashvili is 4.50, the prices we recorded for the Almaty match.
What is the head-to-head between Daniil Medvedev and Nikoloz Basilashvili?
They have met 1 time and Daniil Medvedev leads 1-0.
Who will win Daniil Medvedev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili?
Our model makes it Daniil Medvedev to win at 1.20 (Lean confidence).