Corentin Moutet v Tommy Paul
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanT. Paul is 7-3 over the last ten and 29-15 on hard this season. C. Moutet is 3-7 over the last ten and 9-15 on hard this season. C. Moutet took a medical timeout on 2026-10-20. The head to head is C. Moutet 0-2.
The pick is T. Paul to win 2-0. We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.76 or bigger. At 1.59 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Moutet | T. Paul | |
|---|---|---|
| - | Ranking | 17 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WWLLW | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| -0.9 | V the odds | +0.9 |
| 12-23 | Season | 44-20 |
| 9-15 | Hard 2026 | 29-15 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 2 | Wins here | 1 |
| MTO | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-18 | Delray Beach | C. MoutetvT. Paul | 6-4 3-6 4-6 |
| 2024-07-31 | Olympic Games | C. MoutetvT. Paul | 6-7 3-6 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Moutet — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | F. Balshaw | 2.00 | 51% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MoutetBalshawPoints won57%43%Serve points won79%60%Return points won40%21%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved1 of 14 of 6Aces12Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | U. Humbert | 3.38 | 71% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-7 7-6 MoutetHumbertPoints won51%49%Serve points won61%63%Return points won37%39%Games held14 of 1612 of 16Break points saved10 of 126 of 10Aces112Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | D. Sweeny | RET | 1.38 | 70% | LOST |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 0-3 MoutetSweenyPoints won46%54%Serve points won52%59%Return points won41%48%Games held7 of 139 of 12Break points saved10 of 168 of 11Aces51Double faults86 | |||||||
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | R. Jodar | 3.59 | 73% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 1-6 3-6 MoutetJodarPoints won47%53%Serve points won54%58%Return points won42%46%Games held7 of 1310 of 13Break points saved1 of 75 of 8Aces41Double faults26 | |||||||
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | M. Fucsovics | 1.85 | 52% | WON | |
Games in each set6-1 6-2 MoutetFucsovicsPoints won65%35%Serve points won78%46%Return points won54%22%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved1 of 13 of 8Aces21Double faults08 | |||||||
| 2026-07-29 | Los Cabos | Hard | J. Brooksby | 1.85 | 52% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 4-6 MoutetBrooksbyPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%65%Return points won35%46%Games held6 of 108 of 10Break points saved13 of 170 of 2Aces01Double faults60 | |||||||
| 2026-07-18 | UTS Championship | Hard | J. Fonseca | 4.40 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set14-16 20-13 14-16 10-19 | |||||||
| 2026-07-17 | UTS Championship | Hard | C. Norrie | — | — | LOST | |
Games in each set12-14 9-21 15-13 14-16 | |||||||
| 2026-07-16 | UTS Championship | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 1.97 | 52% | LOST | |
Games in each set11-14 14-13 11-16 15-10 2-3 | |||||||
| 2026-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | M. Giron | 2.16 | 55% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 4-6 5-7 4-6 MoutetGironPoints won48%52%Serve points won59%63%Return points won37%41%Games held15 of 2117 of 21Break points saved6 of 123 of 7Aces42Double faults52 | |||||||
T. Paul — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | B. Bonzi | 1.41 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-7 6-3 PaulBonziPoints won54%46%Serve points won78%68%Return points won32%22%Games held16 of 1613 of 15Break points saved2 of 23 of 5Aces1810Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2.91 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-1 3-6 PaulMedvedevPoints won48%52%Serve points won57%60%Return points won40%43%Games held9 of 139 of 12Break points saved8 of 1211 of 14Aces716Double faults18 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | Z. Bergs | 1.48 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-4 PaulBergsPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%69%Return points won31%33%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved8 of 92 of 4Aces34Double faults23 | |||||||
| 2026-10-12 | Shanghai | Hard | V. Vacherot | 1.61 | 61% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 PaulVacherotPoints won56%44%Serve points won65%53%Return points won47%35%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved6 of 72 of 6Aces49Double faults01 | |||||||
| 2026-10-10 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Vallejo | 1.49 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-2 PaulVallejoPoints won62%38%Serve points won64%40%Return points won60%36%Games held6 of 82 of 8Break points saved3 of 54 of 10Aces51Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Tabilo | 1.35 | 72% | LOST | |
Games in each set1-6 2-6 PaulTabiloPoints won37%63%Serve points won43%70%Return points won30%57%Games held2 of 77 of 8Break points saved3 of 82 of 3Aces50Double faults61 | |||||||
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 4.85 | 80% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 3-6 4-6 PaulAlcarazPoints won43%57%Serve points won56%71%Return points won29%44%Games held10 of 1414 of 15Break points saved10 of 143 of 4Aces43Double faults12 | |||||||
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | A. Bublik | 1.55 | 63% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-7 6-1 6-3 PaulBublikPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%63%Return points won37%29%Games held21 of 2318 of 24Break points saved5 of 72 of 8Aces1016Double faults16 | |||||||
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Prizmic | 1.21 | 81% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 5-7 6-4 PaulPrizmicPoints won54%46%Serve points won67%58%Return points won42%33%Games held16 of 1913 of 20Break points saved2 of 59 of 16Aces92Double faults47 | |||||||
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | C. Wong | 1.17 | 83% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-3 6-3 PaulWongPoints won56%44%Serve points won77%59%Return points won41%23%Games held18 of 1912 of 18Break points saved1 of 27 of 13Aces915Double faults16 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Corentin Moutet or Tommy Paul?
Tommy Paul is favourite at 1.18, which is a 81% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul?
Corentin Moutet is 4.94 and Tommy Paul is 1.18, the prices we recorded for the Lyon (France) match.
What is the head-to-head between Corentin Moutet and Tommy Paul?
They have met 2 times and Tommy Paul leads 2-0.
Who will win Corentin Moutet vs Tommy Paul?
Our model makes it Tommy Paul to win 2-0 at 1.59 (Lean confidence).