ChallengerClayGuayaquil2026-10-29 21:30

Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Alex Hernandez

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanVOID

A. Hernandez to win a set (set handicap +1.5)

Worth backing at 2.41 or bigger · our chance 42% · market 89/11, us 86/14

A. Hernandez is 7-3 over the last ten and 17-10 on clay this season. C. Ugo Carabelli is 3-7 over the last ten and 16-10 on clay this season.

The pick is A. Hernandez to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 42% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.41 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

C. Ugo Carabelli		A. Hernandez
76	Ranking	-
3-7	Last 10	7-3
WLWLL	Last 5	WWWLL
-0.3	V the odds	+2.0
23-26	Season	29-27
16-10	Clay 2026	17-10
1	Last 7 days	3
3d	Days rest	1d
1	Wins here	3
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

C. Ugo CarabelliFAV1.0789%

A. Hernandez8.8411%

Market says89% Carabelli

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

C. Ugo CarabelliWWLWL

A. HernandezLWWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

C. Ugo Carabelli

A. Hernandez

24-26

17-10

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on clay

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

29-28

17-11

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

Alex Hernandez

Venezuela

Argentina

21–24

3–11

18–12

0–1

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

—

Venezuela

1–2

0–1

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

C. Ugo Carabelli — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-29	Guayaquil	Clay	A. Hernandez	RET	1.07	89%	WON
Games in each set2-0 CarabelliHernandezPoints won69%31%Serve points won80%36%Return points won64%20%Games held1 of 10 of 1Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces00Double faults02
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	F. Coria		1.23	78%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-2 CarabelliCoriaPoints won58%42%Serve points won72%54%Return points won46%28%Games held9 of 106 of 10Break points saved1 of 24 of 8Aces55Double faults16
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	F. Auger-Aliassime		9.04	89%	LOST
Games in each set6-4 6-7 5-7 CarabelliAuger-AliassimePoints won46%54%Serve points won62%74%Return points won26%38%Games held15 of 1715 of 17Break points saved12 of 145 of 7Aces714Double faults03
2026-10-08	Shanghai	Hard	I. Simakin		2.87	66%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-2 7-5 CarabelliSimakinPoints won51%49%Serve points won58%56%Return points won44%42%Games held10 of 149 of 14Break points saved7 of 117 of 12Aces65Double faults37
2026-09-28	Tokyo	Hard	R. Hijikata		—	—	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 CarabelliHijikataPoints won39%61%Serve points won53%76%Return points won24%47%Games held5 of 98 of 8Break points saved4 of 80 of 0Aces65Double faults13
2026-09-24	Chengdu	Hard	F. Cina		—	—	LOST
Games in each set3-6 2-6 CarabelliCinaPoints won40%60%Serve points won58%80%Return points won20%42%Games held5 of 89 of 9Break points saved4 of 70 of 0Aces23Double faults30
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	J-L. Struff		2.81	65%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 3-6 3-6 CarabelliStruffPoints won43%57%Serve points won57%73%Return points won27%43%Games held9 of 1413 of 14Break points saved2 of 72 of 3Aces715Double faults133
2026-08-21	Cancun 2	Hard	M. Echargui	RET	1.37	71%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 0-5 CarabelliEcharguiPoints won38%62%Serve points won34%59%Return points won41%66%Games held0 of 65 of 7Break points saved3 of 92 of 4Aces03Double faults32
2026-08-20	Cancun 2	Hard	N. Mejia		1.88	52%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-4 CarabelliMejiaPoints won54%46%Serve points won79%65%Return points won35%21%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 04 of 6Aces24Double faults04
2026-08-13	Cincinnati	Hard	M. Kecmanovic		3.56	73%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 3-6 CarabelliKecmanovicPoints won43%57%Serve points won52%67%Return points won33%48%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved8 of 127 of 8Aces55Double faults63

A. Hernandez — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-29	Guayaquil	Clay	C. Ugo Carabelli	RET	8.84	89%	LOST
Games in each set0-2 HernandezCarabelliPoints won31%69%Serve points won36%80%Return points won20%64%Games held0 of 11 of 1Break points saved0 of 10 of 0Aces00Double faults20
2026-10-28	Guayaquil	Clay	A. Guillen Meza		2.59	63%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-3 HernandezMezaPoints won53%47%Serve points won62%57%Return points won43%38%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved5 of 75 of 9Aces13Double faults20
2026-10-26	Guayaquil	Clay	F. Misolic		4.94	81%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 HernandezMisolicPoints won56%44%Serve points won73%58%Return points won42%27%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved3 of 47 of 10Aces39Double faults12
2026-10-25	Guayaquil	Clay	J. Pereira	RET	1.99	52%	WON
Games in each set6-1 1-0 HernandezPereiraPoints won68%32%Serve points won65%30%Return points won70%35%Games held3 of 40 of 4Break points saved1 of 22 of 6Aces00Double faults11
2026-10-20	Cali	Clay	G. Heide		9.30	90%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 3-6 HernandezHeidePoints won47%53%Serve points won58%67%Return points won33%42%Games held10 of 1411 of 14Break points saved6 of 105 of 8Aces212Double faults410
2026-10-19	Cali	Clay	F. Ribero		1.62	58%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 2-6 HernandezRiberoPoints won42%58%Serve points won41%57%Return points won43%59%Games held2 of 86 of 8Break points saved4 of 102 of 4Aces07Double faults61
2026-10-18	Cali	Clay	M. Covato		1.22	77%	WON
Games in each set7-5 6-4 HernandezCovatoPoints won52%48%Serve points won66%62%Return points won38%34%Games held10 of 118 of 11Break points saved1 of 23 of 6Aces112Double faults36
2026-10-17	M15 Quito 4	Clay	J. S. Osorio		—	—	LOST
Games in each set2-6 6-4 3-6 HernandezOsorioPoints won46%54%Serve points won60%66%Return points won34%40%Games held9 of 1312 of 14Break points saved2 of 61 of 2
2026-10-16	M15 Quito 4	Clay	I. Dreycopp		1.36	70%	WON
Games in each set6-3 4-6 6-3 HernandezDreycoppPoints won52%48%Serve points won62%60%Return points won40%38%Games held11 of 149 of 14Break points saved5 of 83 of 8
2026-10-15	M15 Quito 4	Clay	F. De Dios		1.12	86%	WON
Games in each set6-2 2-6 6-4 HernandezDiosPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%58%Return points won42%33%Games held10 of 139 of 13Break points saved0 of 36 of 10

Common questions

Who is favourite, Camilo Ugo Carabelli or Alex Hernandez?

Camilo Ugo Carabelli is favourite at 1.07, which is a 89% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex Hernandez?

Camilo Ugo Carabelli is 1.07 and Alex Hernandez is 8.84, the prices we recorded for the Guayaquil match.

Who will win Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alex Hernandez?

Our model makes it Alex Hernandez to win a set (Lean confidence).

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