Arthur Fils v Frances Tiafoe
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONA. Fils is 9-1 over the last ten and 29-8 on hard this season. F. Tiafoe is 8-2 over the last ten and 27-12 on hard this season. The head to head is A. Fils 2-0.
The pick is A. Fils to win. We make it a 69% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.46 or bigger. At 1.40 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Fils | F. Tiafoe | |
|---|---|---|
| - | Ranking | 12 |
| 9-1 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WWWLW | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| +1.7 | V the odds | +2.4 |
| 36-12 | Season | 43-18 |
| 29-8 | Hard 2026 | 27-12 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 3 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | A. FilsvF. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | A. FilsvF. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
| 2025-03-24 | Miami | A. FilsvF. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Fils — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 0 | 1.36 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | L. van Assche | 2 - 0 | 1.16 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Tokyo | Hard | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 1 | 1.19 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 3 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | Cincinnati | Hard | F. Cobolli | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-21 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. A. Tirante | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | J. Lehecka | 1 - 2 | — | — | WON |
F. Tiafoe — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | 3.42 | 72% | LOST |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | K. Nishikori | 0 - 2 | 1.23 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-11 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 1 - 3 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | A. Michelsen | 3 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | D. Medvedev | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | V. Vacherot | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | R. Sakamoto | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | Hard | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-23 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Arthur Fils or Frances Tiafoe?
Arthur Fils is favourite at 1.36, which is a 72% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe?
Arthur Fils is 1.36 and Frances Tiafoe is 3.42, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Arthur Fils and Frances Tiafoe?
They have met 3 times and Arthur Fils leads 3-0.
Who will win Arthur Fils vs Frances Tiafoe?
Our model makes it Arthur Fils to win at 1.40 (Lean confidence).