ATPHard (Indoor)Almaty2026-10-22 08:00

Alexander Bublik v Fabian Marozsan

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Solid

F. Marozsan to win3.34

Worth backing at 2.85 or bigger · our chance 35% · market 71/29, us 65/35

F. Marozsan is 6-4 over the last ten and 16-15 on hard this season. A. Bublik is 5-5 over the last ten and 14-11 on hard this season. A. Bublik took a medical timeout on 2026-10-11.

The pick is F. Marozsan to win. We make it a 35% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.85 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

A. Bublik		F. Marozsan
22	Ranking	62
5-5	Last 10	6-4
LWWLL	Last 5	WLLWW
-0.2	V the odds	-0.1
31-23	Season	23-24
14-11	Hard 2026	16-15
0	Last 7 days	1
8d	Days rest	3d
0	Wins here	1
MTO	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head First meeting

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

A. BublikFAV1.3671%

F. Marozsan3.3429%

Market says71% Bublik

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

A. BublikLWWLL

F. MarozsanWLLWW

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

First career meetingNo previous matches between these two on record.

This season & this event

A. Bublik

F. Marozsan

31-23

14-11

Did not play

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

23-24

16-15

Lost QF to D. Medvedev

Lost R32 to B. Coric

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Alexander Bublik

Kazakhstan

Fabian Marozsan

Hungary

Kazakhstan

30–20

16–8

8–8

5–3

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Hungary

22–23

11–12

5–6

5–4

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

A. Bublik — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	A. Zverev	3.38	71%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 6-4 6-7 BublikZverevPoints won47%53%Serve points won66%75%Return points won25%34%Games held16 of 1715 of 17Break points saved5 of 61 of 3Aces2015Double faults81
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	B. Nakashima	2.04	52%	WON
Games in each set6-7 6-3 7-6 BublikNakashimaPoints won55%45%Serve points won81%70%Return points won30%19%Games held17 of 1715 of 16Break points saved0 of 00 of 1Aces2212Double faults22
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	T. Machac	1.51	64%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 BublikMachacPoints won56%44%Serve points won77%60%Return points won40%23%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 14 of 6Aces184Double faults12
2026-09-30	Beijing	Hard	J. Mensik	2.56	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 BublikMensikPoints won46%54%Serve points won62%74%Return points won26%38%Games held9 of 1110 of 11Break points saved5 of 72 of 3Aces710Double faults12
2026-09-25	ATP Laver Cup	Hard (Indoor)	R. Jodar	2.51	62%	LOST
Games in each set2-6 3-6 BublikJodarPoints won39%61%Serve points won47%71%Return points won29%53%Games held4 of 88 of 9Break points saved5 of 92 of 3Aces11Double faults33
2026-09-04	US Open	Hard	T. Paul	2.65	63%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-3 7-6 1-6 3-6 BublikPaulPoints won46%54%Serve points won63%71%Return points won29%37%Games held18 of 2421 of 23Break points saved2 of 85 of 7Aces1610Double faults61
2026-09-02	US Open	Hard	A. Mannarino	1.28	76%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-1 6-1 BublikMannarinoPoints won65%35%Serve points won81%50%Return points won50%19%Games held12 of 125 of 11Break points saved1 of 18 of 14Aces161Double faults33
2026-08-31	US Open	Hard	J.J. Wolf	1.45	67%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 3-6 6-1 BublikWolfPoints won57%43%Serve points won70%55%Return points won45%30%Games held14 of 1710 of 17Break points saved5 of 81 of 8Aces184Double faults103
2026-07-25	Kitzbuhel	clay	Q. Halys	1.45	67%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 6-7 BublikHalysPoints won46%54%Serve points won65%78%Return points won22%35%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved5 of 60 of 0Aces617Double faults13
2026-07-24	Kitzbuhel	clay	T. M. Etcheverry	1.60	61%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 BublikEtcheverryPoints won54%46%Serve points won70%62%Return points won38%30%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved1 of 14 of 6Aces77Double faults31

F. Marozsan — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-19	Almaty	Hard (Indoor)	T. Skatov	1.30	75%	WON
Games in each set7-5 7-6 MarozsanSkatovPoints won54%46%Serve points won74%59%Return points won41%26%Games held11 of 1210 of 12Break points saved0 of 18 of 10Aces45Double faults25
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	Z. Svajda	1.83	53%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-7 MarozsanSvajdaPoints won45%55%Serve points won59%71%Return points won29%41%Games held8 of 119 of 10Break points saved3 of 62 of 3Aces65Double faults20
2026-09-27	Hangzhou	Hard	K. Jacquet	1.83	53%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 4-6 MarozsanJacquetPoints won49%51%Serve points won70%70%Return points won30%30%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved1 of 23 of 3Aces36Double faults15
2026-09-25	Hangzhou	Hard	T. Daniel	1.43	68%	WON
Games in each set6-7 7-5 7-6 MarozsanDanielPoints won52%48%Serve points won75%67%Return points won33%25%Games held17 of 1816 of 18Break points saved1 of 28 of 10Aces89Double faults10
2026-09-24	Hangzhou	Hard	A. Bolt	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 MarozsanBoltPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%57%Return points won43%34%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved1 of 13 of 6Aces46Double faults11
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	L. Van Herck	1.01	94%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MarozsanHerckPoints won56%44%Serve points won70%57%Return points won43%30%Games held8 of 106 of 10Break points saved0 of 24 of 8Aces15Double faults22
2026-09-01	US Open	Hard	M. Zheng	2.42	60%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 2-6 MarozsanZhengPoints won44%56%Serve points won57%70%Return points won30%43%Games held9 of 1413 of 14Break points saved3 of 85 of 6Aces39Double faults32
2026-08-28	Winston-Salem	Hard	J. Duckworth	1.64	60%	LOST
Games in each set7-6 2-6 4-6 MarozsanDuckworthPoints won48%52%Serve points won58%62%Return points won38%42%Games held9 of 1512 of 15Break points saved6 of 125 of 8Aces18Double faults68
2026-08-27	Winston-Salem	Hard	M. Damm	1.78	55%	WON
Games in each set2-6 6-3 6-3 MarozsanDammPoints won51%49%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held11 of 1310 of 13Break points saved4 of 61 of 4Aces511Double faults25
2026-08-26	Winston-Salem	Hard	M. Kecmanovic	2.16	55%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MarozsanKecmanovicPoints won56%44%Serve points won70%54%Return points won46%30%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved3 of 46 of 9Aces81Double faults43

Common questions

Who is favourite, Alexander Bublik or Fabian Marozsan?

Alexander Bublik is favourite at 1.36, which is a 71% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan?

Alexander Bublik is 1.36 and Fabian Marozsan is 3.34, the prices we recorded for the Almaty match.

Who will win Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan?

Our model makes it Fabian Marozsan to win at 3.34 (Solid confidence).