ATPHard (Indoor)Vienna2026-11-01 14:00

Alex De Minaur v Carlos Alcaraz

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

Lean

C. Alcaraz to win 2-01.72

Price too short today - wait for 1.85 or bigger · our chance 54% · market 20/80, us 17/83

C. Alcaraz is 9-1 over the last ten and 32-4 on hard this season. A. De Minaur is 8-2 over the last ten and 26-13 on hard this season. A. De Minaur retired from a match in the last month. A. De Minaur has played 4 matches in seven days. C. Alcaraz has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is A. De Minaur 0-6.

The pick is C. Alcaraz to win 2-0. We make it a 54% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.85 or bigger. At 1.72 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

A. De Minaur		C. Alcaraz
9	Ranking	3
8-2	Last 10	9-1
WWWWL	Last 5	WWWWL
+2.8	V the odds	+0.7
46-20	Season	38-5
26-13	Hard 2026	32-4
4	Last 7 days	4
1d	Days rest	1d
4	Wins here	4
retiredDefending semi	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-6

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

A. De Minaur4.8020%

C. AlcarazFAV1.2280%

Market says80% Alcaraz

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

A. De MinaurWWWWL

C. AlcarazWWWWL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

A. De Minaur0

C. Alcaraz6

Head to head6 meetings

Date	Event	Match	Score
2026-01-27	Australian Open	C. AlcarazvA. De Minaur	7-5 6-2 6-1
2025-11-09	Finals - Turin	C. AlcarazvA. De Minaur	7-6 6-2
2025-04-18	Barcelona	C. AlcarazvA. De Minaur	7-5 6-3
2025-02-09	Rotterdam	C. AlcarazvA. De Minaur	6-4 3-6 6-2
2023-06-25	ATP London	C. AlcarazvA. De Minaur	6-4 6-4
2022-04-24	Barcelona	C. AlcarazvA. De Minaur	6-7 7-6 6-4

This season & this event

A. De Minaur

Defending semi

C. Alcaraz

46-20

26-13

Lost SF to J. Sinner

Lost SF to K. Khachanov

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

38-5

32-4

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Alex De Minaur

Australia

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

Australia

41–19

24–10

7–6

8–3

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Spain

33–4

28–3

5–1

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

A. De Minaur — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-31	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	A. Zverev		3.22	70%	WON
Games in each set6-4 1-6 7-6 MinaurZverevPoints won50%50%Serve points won69%63%Return points won37%31%Games held12 of 1414 of 15Break points saved1 of 313 of 14Aces56Double faults34
2026-10-30	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	M. Berrettini		1.44	68%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-2 MinaurBerrettiniPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%61%Return points won39%30%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved6 of 61 of 3Aces54Double faults20
2026-10-28	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	L. Tien		1.88	52%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-2 MinaurTienPoints won60%40%Serve points won71%50%Return points won50%29%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved2 of 33 of 7Aces21Double faults02
2026-10-26	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	T. Machac		1.44	67%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-4 6-3 MinaurMachacPoints won49%51%Serve points won56%57%Return points won43%44%Games held8 of 138 of 13Break points saved3 of 86 of 11Aces23Double faults33
2026-10-16	Shanghai	Hard	A. Zverev		2.70	64%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 4-6 MinaurZverevPoints won44%56%Serve points won67%76%Return points won24%33%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved0 of 25 of 5Aces610Double faults21
2026-10-14	Shanghai	Hard	K. Khachanov		1.80	54%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MinaurKhachanovPoints won55%45%Serve points won75%65%Return points won35%25%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved1 of 11 of 3Aces43Double faults10
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	R. Sakamoto		1.42	69%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 MinaurSakamotoPoints won55%45%Serve points won80%67%Return points won33%20%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved2 of 20 of 1Aces1113Double faults20
2026-10-06	Beijing	Hard	N. Djokovic	RET	2.53	61%	LOST
Games in each set6-7 1-0 MinaurDjokovicPoints won47%53%Serve points won68%82%Return points won18%32%Games held7 of 76 of 6Break points saved2 of 21 of 1Aces40Double faults20
2026-10-05	Beijing	Hard	H. Hurkacz	RET	1.74	56%	WON
Games in each set6-4 3-2 MinaurHurkaczPoints won58%42%Serve points won73%54%Return points won46%27%Games held6 of 75 of 8Break points saved2 of 36 of 9Aces38Double faults10
2026-10-04	Beijing	Hard	A. Rublev		1.75	54%	WON
Games in each set1-6 6-2 6-3 MinaurRublevPoints won53%47%Serve points won63%58%Return points won42%37%Games held9 of 128 of 12Break points saved9 of 127 of 11Aces17Double faults12

C. Alcaraz — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Score	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-31	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	D. Medvedev		1.42	69%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazMedvedevPoints won54%46%Serve points won65%57%Return points won43%35%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved2 of 41 of 4Aces76Double faults22
2026-10-30	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	T. Paul		1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won68%69%Return points won31%32%Games held11 of 1110 of 11Break points saved5 of 53 of 4Aces53Double faults01
2026-10-29	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	N. Basilashvili		1.10	88%	WON
Games in each set6-1 7-6 AlcarazBasilashviliPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%58%Return points won42%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved0 of 14 of 7Aces94Double faults10
2026-10-27	Vienna	Hard (Indoor)	K. Khachanov		1.23	79%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 AlcarazKhachanovPoints won54%46%Serve points won66%54%Return points won46%34%Games held9 of 118 of 11Break points saved0 of 26 of 9Aces34Double faults30
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	Z. Bergs		1.07	91%	LOST
Games in each set5-7 6-7 AlcarazBergsPoints won47%53%Serve points won62%68%Return points won32%38%Games held9 of 1210 of 12Break points saved1 of 40 of 2Aces59Double faults21
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	J. M. Cerundolo		1.07	90%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 AlcarazCerundoloPoints won58%42%Serve points won80%61%Return points won39%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 04 of 7Aces82Double faults10
2026-10-06	Tokyo	Hard	J. Lehecka		1.29	76%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-4 AlcarazLeheckaPoints won53%47%Serve points won79%68%Return points won32%21%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 32 of 4Aces47Double faults10
2026-10-05	Tokyo	Hard	J. Munar		1.12	86%	WON
Games in each set5-7 6-3 6-1 AlcarazMunarPoints won54%46%Serve points won61%53%Return points won47%39%Games held11 of 148 of 14Break points saved2 of 54 of 10Aces32Double faults44
2026-10-04	Tokyo	Hard	D. Shapovalov	RET	1.13	85%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-1 AlcarazShapovalovPoints won55%45%Serve points won57%48%Return points won52%43%Games held5 of 84 of 7Break points saved1 of 44 of 7Aces01Double faults13
2026-10-03	Tokyo	Hard	M. Arnaldi		1.07	91%	WON
Games in each set7-6 6-1 AlcarazArnaldiPoints won55%45%Serve points won66%58%Return points won42%34%Games held9 of 106 of 9Break points saved2 of 34 of 7Aces11Double faults11

Common questions

Who is favourite, Alex De Minaur or Carlos Alcaraz?

Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.22, which is a 80% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Alex De Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz?

Alex De Minaur is 4.80 and Carlos Alcaraz is 1.22, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.

What is the head-to-head between Alex De Minaur and Carlos Alcaraz?

They have met 6 times and Carlos Alcaraz leads 6-0.

Who will win Alex De Minaur vs Carlos Alcaraz?

Our model makes it Carlos Alcaraz to win 2-0 at 1.72 (Lean confidence).