Alex De Minaur v Andrey Rublev
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidWONA. De Minaur is 8-2 over the last ten and 18-11 on hard this season. A. Rublev is 7-3 over the last ten and 18-12 on hard this season. A. Rublev has played 5 matches in seven days. The head to head is A. De Minaur 2-5.
The pick is A. De Minaur to win. We make it a 59% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.70 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. De Minaur | A. Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ranking | 24 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| WWWWW | Last 5 | WWLWW |
| +1.2 | V the odds | +1.0 |
| 38-18 | Season | 35-20 |
| 18-11 | Hard 2026 | 18-12 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 5 |
| 2d | Days rest | 1d |
| 2 | Wins here | 2 |
| Defending semi | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-5 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | A. De MinaurvA. Rublev | 2 - 1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Others matches | A. De MinaurvA. Rublev | 1 - 3 |
| 2025-02-20 | Doha | A. RublevvA. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-02-16 | ATP Rotterdam | A. De MinaurvA. Rublev | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-01-21 | ATP Australian Open | A. De MinaurvA. Rublev | 2 - 3 |
| 2023-11-03 | ATP Paris | A. De MinaurvA. Rublev | 1 - 2 |
| 2023-02-15 | Rotterdam | A. De MinaurvA. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| 2022-04-13 | Monte Carlo | A. RublevvA. De Minaur | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. De Minaur — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 1 - 0 RET | 1.74 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | 1.78 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | Q. Halys | 2 - 1 | 1.35 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | M. Navone | 2 - 0 | 1.24 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | A. Zverev | 1 - 2 | 3.75 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | M. Kasnikowski | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-03 | US Open | Hard | B. Van De Zandschulp | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | A. Guerrieri | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Fils | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
A. Rublev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | 2.05 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Beijing | Hard | R. Safiullin | 2 - 1 | 1.71 | 56% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | T. Griekspoor | 1 - 2 | 1.58 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Hangzhou | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 2.81 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-09-28 | Hangzhou | Hard | K. Jacquet | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Hangzhou | Hard | H. Gaston | 1 - 2 | 1.25 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | Hangzhou | Hard | R. Hijikata | 0 - 2 | 1.38 | 70% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 3 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | O. Virtanen | 2 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | N. Borges | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alex De Minaur or Andrey Rublev?
Alex De Minaur is favourite at 1.78, which is a 54% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev?
Alex De Minaur is 1.78 and Andrey Rublev is 2.05, the prices we recorded for the Beijing match.
What is the head-to-head between Alex De Minaur and Andrey Rublev?
They have met 8 times and Andrey Rublev leads 5-3.
Who will win Alex De Minaur vs Andrey Rublev?
Our model makes it Alex De Minaur to win at 1.78 (Solid confidence).