Yanki Erel v Mattia Bellucci
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidLOSTY. Erel is 7-3 over the last ten and 47-15 on hard this season. M. Bellucci is 6-4 over the last ten and 19-16 on hard this season. M. Bellucci has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is Y. Erel 0-1.
The pick is Y. Erel to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 62% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.62 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| Y. Erel | M. Bellucci | |
|---|---|---|
| 449 | Ranking | 91 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 6-4 |
| WWWLL | Last 5 | WWWWL |
| +1.9 | V the odds | +0.6 |
| 50-18 | Season | 32-26 |
| 47-15 | Hard 2026 | 19-16 |
| 3 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 1d | Days rest | 2d |
| 3 | Wins here | 4 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Y. ErelvM. Bellucci | 0 - 2 |
| 2026-01-28 | Manama | Y. ErelvM. Bellucci | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
Y. Erel — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Hard | M. Bellucci | 0 - 2 | 3.43 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Cina | 2 - 0 | 3.48 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | M. Zheng | 0 - 2 | 4.33 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Weber | 0 - 2 | 1.55 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-11 | Istanbul | Clay | J. D. Hara Friend | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-10 | Istanbul | Clay | R. Albot | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Istanbul | Clay | T. Skatov | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-05 | M25 Urayasu (Japan) | Hard | R. Matsuda | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-04 | M25 Urayasu (Japan) | Hard | K. Saitoh | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
M. Bellucci — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Jingshan | Hard | L. Harris | 1 - 2 | 1.94 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Hard | Y. Erel | 0 - 2 | 1.24 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | 1.87 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | 1.53 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | K. Saitoh | 2 - 0 | 1.04 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Peliwo | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | K. Majchrzak | 0 - 2 | 2.25 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | T. Fritz | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | Z. Piros | 3 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | Winston-Salem | Hard | L. Darderi | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Yanki Erel or Mattia Bellucci?
Mattia Bellucci is favourite at 1.24, which is a 73% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Yanki Erel vs Mattia Bellucci?
Yanki Erel is 3.43 and Mattia Bellucci is 1.24, the prices we recorded for the Jingshan match.
What is the head-to-head between Yanki Erel and Mattia Bellucci?
They have met 2 times and Mattia Bellucci leads 2-0.
Who will win Yanki Erel vs Mattia Bellucci?
Our model makes it Yanki Erel to win a set (Solid confidence).