Mattia Bellucci v Lloyd Harris
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONL. Harris is 8-2 over the last ten and 36-10 on hard this season. M. Bellucci is 7-3 over the last ten and 20-16 on hard this season. M. Bellucci has played 5 matches in seven days. L. Harris has played 5 matches in seven days. The head to head is M. Bellucci 1-0.
The pick is L. Harris to win. We make it a 54% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.84 or bigger. At 1.76 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Bellucci | L. Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| 91 | Ranking | 136 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WWWWW | Last 5 | WWWWL |
| +0.8 | V the odds | +1.7 |
| 33-26 | Season | 39-14 |
| 20-16 | Hard 2026 | 36-10 |
| 5 | Last 7 days | 5 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 5 | Wins here | 4 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Jingshan | M. BelluccivL. Harris | 1 - 2 |
| 2024-05-22 | ATP French Open | M. BelluccivL. Harris | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Bellucci — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | E. Ymer | 2 - 1 | 1.11 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Jingshan | Hard | L. Harris | 1 - 2 | 1.94 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Hard | Y. Erel | 0 - 2 | 1.24 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Walton | 0 - 2 | 1.87 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Muller | 2 - 0 | 1.53 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | K. Saitoh | 2 - 0 | 1.04 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Jingshan | Hard | F. Peliwo | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | K. Majchrzak | 0 - 2 | 2.25 | 58% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | T. Fritz | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | Z. Piros | 3 - 0 | — | — | WON |
L. Harris — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Shanghai | Hard | A. Bolt | 0 - 2 | 1.16 | 83% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Jingshan | Hard | M. Bellucci | 1 - 2 | 1.76 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Bolt | 1 - 1 RET | 1.17 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-10-02 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | 1.22 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | L. Pavlovic | 2 - 0 | 1.20 | 78% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 | 1.25 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Chengdu | Hard | H. Hurkacz | 0 - 2 | 2.38 | 61% | LOST |
| 2026-09-26 | Chengdu | Hard | V. Vacherot | 0 - 2 | 2.01 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 | 1.52 | 63% | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | A. Galarneau | 2 - 0 | 1.31 | 73% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Mattia Bellucci or Lloyd Harris?
Lloyd Harris is favourite at 1.76, which is a 52% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Mattia Bellucci vs Lloyd Harris?
Mattia Bellucci is 1.94 and Lloyd Harris is 1.76, the prices we recorded for the Jingshan match.
What is the head-to-head between Mattia Bellucci and Lloyd Harris?
They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.
Who will win Mattia Bellucci vs Lloyd Harris?
Our model makes it Lloyd Harris to win at 1.76 (Lean confidence).