Mateus Alves v Gonzalo Villanueva
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
SolidWONG. Villanueva is 8-2 over the last ten and 44-22 on clay this season. M. Alves is 9-1 over the last ten and 25-8 on clay this season. M. Alves has played 5 matches in seven days. The head to head is M. Alves 1-2.
The pick is G. Villanueva to win. We make it a 38% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.64 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Alves | G. Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| 548 | Ranking | 376 |
| 9-1 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WWWWW | Last 5 | WLWWW |
| +1.2 | V the odds | +0.4 |
| 34-14 | Season | 45-24 |
| 25-8 | Clay 2026 | 44-22 |
| 5 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 3d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Defending title | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Curitiba | M. AlvesvG. Villanueva | 0 - 2 |
| 2025-05-06 | Santos | G. VillanuevavM. Alves | 2 - 1 |
| 2024-09-30 | Buenos Aires 3 (Argentina) - Qualification, Clay | M. AlvesvG. Villanueva | 1 - 2 |
| 2024-09-16 | Cali Challenger Men | G. VillanuevavM. Alves | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Alves — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Curitiba | Clay | G. Villanueva | 0 - 2 | 1.40 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Curitiba | Clay | J. Pereira | 1 - 2 | 1.08 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | — | P. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | — | W. Leite | 2 - 0 | 1.09 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-25 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | — | V. C. Loureiro J. | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | — | P. H. Chabalgoity | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-23 | M15 Curitiba (Brazil) | — | M. Mouilleron Salvo | 2 - 0 | 1.01 | 93% | WON |
| 2026-09-13 | M15 Leme (Brazil) | Clay | P. Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-12 | M15 Leme (Brazil) | Clay | R. Tosetto | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-11 | M15 Leme (Brazil) | Clay | R. Augusto dos Santos | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
G. Villanueva — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Curitiba | Clay | G. I. Justo | 2 - 0 | 2.52 | 62% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | Curitiba | Clay | M. Alves | 0 - 2 | 2.72 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Curitiba | Clay | J. C. Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | 3.10 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-09-21 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | G. I. Justo | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-29 | M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina) | Clay | J. Aguilar Cardozo | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-28 | M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina) | Clay | S. De La Fuente | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina) | Clay | V. A. Darderi | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | M15 Mar Del Plata (Argentina) | Clay | L. C. Castro | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-22 | M15 Asuncion 2 (Paraguay) | Clay | J. Aguilar Cardozo | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-21 | M15 Asuncion 2 (Paraguay) | Clay | D. Bobo | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Mateus Alves or Gonzalo Villanueva?
Mateus Alves is favourite at 1.40, which is a 66% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Mateus Alves vs Gonzalo Villanueva?
Mateus Alves is 1.40 and Gonzalo Villanueva is 2.72, the prices we recorded for the Curitiba match.
What is the head-to-head between Mateus Alves and Gonzalo Villanueva?
They have met 4 times and Gonzalo Villanueva leads 3-1.
Who will win Mateus Alves vs Gonzalo Villanueva?
Our model makes it Gonzalo Villanueva to win at 2.80 (Solid confidence).