Marvin Moeller v Federico Arnaboldi
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONM. Moeller is 5-5 over the last ten and 30-15 on clay this season. F. Arnaboldi is 4-6 over the last ten and 26-21 on clay this season. The head to head is M. Moeller 1-1.
The pick is M. Moeller to win 2-0. We make it a 45% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.25 or bigger. At 1.83 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Moeller | F. Arnaboldi | |
|---|---|---|
| 259 | Ranking | 521 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| WLWLW | Last 5 | WLLWW |
| -0.2 | V the odds | -0.9 |
| 46-22 | Season | 32-28 |
| 30-15 | Clay 2026 | 26-21 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 1 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification | M. MoellervF. Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | M25 Trento | F. ArnaboldivM. Moeller | 0 - 2 |
| 2026-01-27 | Quimper | F. ArnaboldivM. Moeller | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
No previous edition of this event found in the feed.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Moeller — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | F. Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | 1.40 | 68% | WON |
| 2026-09-21 | Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | S. Travaglia | 1 - 2 | 2.00 | 54% | WON |
| 2026-09-17 | Szczecin | Clay | M. Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | 2.28 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-15 | Szczecin | Clay | D. Michalski | 2 - 0 | 1.83 | 50% | WON |
| 2026-09-09 | Tulln | Clay | M. Soto | 1 - 2 | 1.46 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-09-07 | Tulln | Clay | M. Mrva | 0 - 0 RET | 2.26 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-27 | Augsburg | Clay | C. Cretu | 2 - 0 | 1.65 | 59% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Augsburg | Clay | M. Soto | 2 - 0 | 1.39 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | Augsburg | Clay | T. Faurel | 2 - 0 | 1.69 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Sion (Switzerland) | Clay | D. Kuzmanov | 2 - 0 | 1.72 | 56% | LOST |
F. Arnaboldi — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | M. Moeller | 2 - 0 | 3.01 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-09-21 | Genova 2 (Italy) - Qualification | Clay | F. Broska | 2 - 0 | 1.85 | 52% | WON |
| 2026-09-13 | Biella | Clay | M. Marterer | 2 - 0 | 1.88 | 51% | LOST |
| 2026-09-08 | Genova | Clay | J. P. Varillas | 2 - 1 | 3.31 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-09-07 | Genova | Clay | M. Petkovic | 1 - 2 | 2.34 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | Genova | Clay | E. Cherie Ligniere | 0 - 2 | 1.28 | 75% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | Como | Clay | J. P. Varillas | 0 - 2 | 3.10 | 69% | LOST |
| 2026-08-31 | Como | Clay | F. Bondioli | 0 - 0 RET | 2.47 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-08-19 | M25 Lesa | Clay | S. Reitano | 1 - 0 RET | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-09 | Todi | Clay | G. Crivellaro | 2 - 1 | 1.19 | 80% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Marvin Moeller or Federico Arnaboldi?
Marvin Moeller is favourite at 1.40, which is a 68% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Marvin Moeller vs Federico Arnaboldi?
Marvin Moeller is 1.40 and Federico Arnaboldi is 3.01, the prices we recorded for the Genova 2 (Italy) match.
What is the head-to-head between Marvin Moeller and Federico Arnaboldi?
They have met 3 times and Marvin Moeller leads 2-1.
Who will win Marvin Moeller vs Federico Arnaboldi?
Our model makes it Marvin Moeller to win 2-0 at 1.83 (Lean confidence).