Martin Damm v Shintaro Mochizuki
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWONM. Damm is 5-5 over the last ten and 25-16 on hard this season. S. Mochizuki is 4-6 over the last ten and 13-20 on hard this season. The head to head is M. Damm 0-1.
The pick is M. Damm to win. We make it a 68% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.48 or bigger. At 1.47 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. Damm | S. Mochizuki | |
|---|---|---|
| 115 | Ranking | 125 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| LLWWL | Last 5 | WWLLL |
| -0.1 | V the odds | -0.7 |
| 31-24 | Season | 21-29 |
| 25-16 | Hard 2026 | 13-20 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 23d | Days rest | 1d |
| 0 | Wins here | 2 |
| 23d out | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 0-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | M. DammvS. Mochizuki | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-08-19 | ATP US Open | M. DammvS. Mochizuki | 1 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. Damm — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 0 | 1.52 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 2 - 3 | 4.47 | 78% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | Winston-Salem | Hard | F. Marozsan | 1 - 2 | 2.14 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | D. Medvedev | 0 - 2 | 4.08 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-08-24 | Winston-Salem | Hard | A. Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | 1.35 | 72% | WON |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati | Hard | S. Sakellaridis | 0 - 2 | 1.30 | 74% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 0 - 2 | 2.68 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-08-01 | Montreal | Hard | H. Rocha | 2 - 0 | 1.45 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-07-28 | Washington | Hard | B. Shelton | 1 - 2 | 3.39 | 71% | LOST |
| 2026-07-26 | Washington | Hard | A. Shelbayh | 2 - 1 | 1.29 | 74% | WON |
S. Mochizuki — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Chengdu | Hard | M. Damm | 2 - 0 | 2.69 | 64% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | P. Kotov | 2 - 0 | 2.35 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Chengdu | Hard | L. Xiao | 2 - 1 | 1.06 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-09-15 | Guangzhou 2 | Hard | P. Kotov | 0 - 2 | 1.88 | 52% | LOST |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | J. Mensik | 3 - 0 | 7.50 | 87% | LOST |
| 2026-08-27 | US Open | Hard | F. Passaro | 0 - 2 | 1.79 | 54% | LOST |
| 2026-08-26 | US Open | Hard | B. Shick | 2 - 0 | 1.59 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | D. Milavsky | 2 - 0 | 1.67 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-08-19 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | S. Kwon | 2 - 1 | 3.01 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-08-12 | Cincinnati | Hard | J.J. Wolf | 2 - 1 | 2.57 | 63% | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Martin Damm or Shintaro Mochizuki?
Martin Damm is favourite at 1.52, which is a 64% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Martin Damm vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Martin Damm is 1.52 and Shintaro Mochizuki is 2.69, the prices we recorded for the Chengdu match.
What is the head-to-head between Martin Damm and Shintaro Mochizuki?
They have met 2 times and they are level at 1-1.
Who will win Martin Damm vs Shintaro Mochizuki?
Our model makes it Martin Damm to win at 1.47 (Lean confidence).