Daniil Medvedev v Pablo Carreno-Busta
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanWOND. Medvedev is 7-3 over the last ten and 28-9 on hard this season. P. Carreno-Busta is 4-6 over the last ten and 12-11 on hard this season. D. Medvedev has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is D. Medvedev 2-1.
The pick is D. Medvedev to win. We make it a 78% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.29 or bigger. At 1.26 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| D. Medvedev | P. Carreno-Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ranking | 91 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| WWWWL | Last 5 | WWLLL |
| -0.4 | V the odds | -1.6 |
| 37-16 | Season | 30-19 |
| 28-9 | Hard 2026 | 12-11 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 0 | Wins here | 2 |
| Defending semi | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 2-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | D. MedvedevvP. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 |
| 2021-08-20 | Cincinnati | D. MedvedevvP. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 |
| 2021-07-29 | Olympic Games | P. Carreno-BustavD. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| 2021-06-25 | Mallorca | D. MedvedevvP. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
D. Medvedev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 2 - 0 | 1.22 | 77% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Hangzhou | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Hangzhou | Hard | R. Safiullin | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-27 | Hangzhou | Hard | C. Wong | 2 - 1 | 1.26 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | Hangzhou | Hard | V. Royer | 2 - 0 | 1.28 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | F. Tiafoe | 0 - 3 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | A. Rinderknech | 3 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | S. Gorzny | 3 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | H. Gaston | 3 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-26 | Winston-Salem | Hard | M. Damm | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
P. Carreno-Busta — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Beijing | Hard | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 | 4.08 | 77% | LOST |
| 2026-09-29 | Beijing | Hard | A. Mannarino | 0 - 2 | 1.59 | 61% | WON |
| 2026-09-28 | Beijing | Hard | Y. Zhou | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | J. Lehecka | 3 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-24 | Winston-Salem | Hard | D. Vallejo | 0 - 1 RET | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-14 | Cincinnati | Hard | T. Machac | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-04 | Montreal | Hard | V. Royer | 1 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-23 | Estoril | Clay | L. van Assche | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-21 | Estoril | Clay | V. Gaubas | 0 - 2 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Daniil Medvedev or Pablo Carreno-Busta?
Daniil Medvedev is favourite at 1.22, which is a 77% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno-Busta?
Daniil Medvedev is 1.22 and Pablo Carreno-Busta is 4.08, the prices we recorded for the Beijing match.
What is the head-to-head between Daniil Medvedev and Pablo Carreno-Busta?
They have met 4 times and Daniil Medvedev leads 3-1.
Who will win Daniil Medvedev vs Pablo Carreno-Busta?
Our model makes it Daniil Medvedev to win at 1.26 (Lean confidence).