Carlos Alcaraz v Taylor Fritz
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTC. Alcaraz is 8-2 over the last ten and 20-3 on hard this season. T. Fritz is 7-3 over the last ten and 22-11 on hard this season. The head to head is C. Alcaraz 6-1.
The pick is C. Alcaraz to win 2-0. We make it a 47% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.13 or bigger. At 1.80 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Alcaraz | T. Fritz | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ranking | 9 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 | 7-3 |
| LWWWW | Last 5 | LWWLW |
| -0.4 | V the odds | -0.6 |
| 26-4 | Season | 33-16 |
| 20-3 | Hard 2026 | 22-11 |
| 0 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 18d | Days rest | 21d |
| 0 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | 21d out |
| Head to head 6-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-11 | Finals - Turin | C. AlcarazvT. Fritz | 2 - 1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Six Kings Slam | C. AlcarazvT. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Tokyo | C. AlcarazvT. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| 2025-09-21 | ATP Laver Cup | C. AlcarazvT. Fritz | 0 - 2 |
| 2025-07-11 | Wimbledon | T. FritzvC. Alcaraz | 1 - 3 |
| 2024-09-22 | ATP Laver Cup | C. AlcarazvT. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
| 2023-03-31 | ATP Miami | C. AlcarazvT. Fritz | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | 1.26 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 2 | 1.28 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. Paul | 0 - 3 | 1.22 | 80% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | 1.08 | 89% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | US Open | Hard | R. Safiullin | 0 - 3 | 1.21 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | O. Virtanen | 2 - 0 | 1.03 | 96% | WON |
| 2026-04-12 | Monte Carlo | Clay | J. Sinner | 0 - 2 | 2.08 | 53% | LOST |
| 2026-04-11 | Monte Carlo | Clay | V. Vacherot | 2 - 0 | 1.07 | 92% | WON |
| 2026-04-10 | Monte Carlo | Clay | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | 1.10 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-04-09 | Monte Carlo | Clay | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 1 | 1.03 | 95% | WON |
T. Fritz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 1 | 3.90 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-09-05 | US Open | Hard | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 3 | 1.15 | 85% | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | M. Bellucci | 3 - 0 | 1.11 | 87% | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | Dar. Blanch | 3 - 0 | 1.03 | 94% | WON |
| 2026-08-21 | Cincinnati | Hard | B. Nakashima | 1 - 2 | 1.56 | 63% | LOST |
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati | Hard | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | 1.10 | 88% | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Cincinnati | Hard | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | 1.24 | 79% | WON |
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | 1.63 | 59% | WON |
| 2026-08-05 | Montreal | Hard | T. A. Tirante | 2 - 0 | 1.19 | 82% | LOST |
| 2026-08-03 | Washington | Hard | R. Jodar | 2 - 0 | 1.60 | 61% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Carlos Alcaraz or Taylor Fritz?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.26, which is a 76% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz?
Carlos Alcaraz is 1.26 and Taylor Fritz is 3.90, the prices we recorded for the ATP Laver Cup match.
What is the head-to-head between Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz?
They have met 7 times and Carlos Alcaraz leads 6-1.
Who will win Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz?
Our model makes it Carlos Alcaraz to win 2-0 at 1.80 (Lean confidence).
What is the match format at the Laver Cup?
Two sets, then a 10-point match tie-break instead of a third. Team Europe against Team World over three days. Wins are worth 1 point on day one, 2 on day two and 3 on day three; first team to 13 points takes the cup. Watch the team score before you bet a late match - a decided tie changes what the players are playing for.