Carlos Alcaraz v Jiri Lehecka
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTJ. Lehecka is 8-2 over the last ten and 23-12 on hard this season. C. Alcaraz is 9-1 over the last ten and 26-3 on hard this season. C. Alcaraz has played 4 matches in seven days. J. Lehecka has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is C. Alcaraz 3-1.
The pick is J. Lehecka to win a set (set handicap +1.5). We make it a 57% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.77 or bigger.
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Alcaraz | J. Lehecka | |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ranking | 19 |
| 9-1 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WWWWW | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| +0.8 | V the odds | +1.4 |
| 32-4 | Season | 35-17 |
| 26-3 | Hard 2026 | 23-12 |
| 4 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 4 | Wins here | 4 |
| Defending title | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 3-1 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Tokyo | C. AlcarazvJ. Lehecka | 2 - 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | US Open | J. LeheckavC. Alcaraz | 0 - 3 |
| 2025-06-22 | London | C. AlcarazvJ. Lehecka | 2 - 1 |
| 2025-02-20 | Doha | C. AlcarazvJ. Lehecka | 1 - 2 |
| 2023-06-22 | ATP London | C. AlcarazvJ. Lehecka | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Alcaraz — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Lehecka | 2 - 0 | 1.29 | 76% | WON |
| 2026-10-05 | Tokyo | Hard | J. Munar | 2 - 1 | 1.12 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Shapovalov | 1 - 0 RET | 1.12 | 86% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 0 | 1.06 | 90% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 1 | 1.18 | 82% | WON |
| 2026-09-26 | ATP Laver Cup | Hard (Indoor) | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | 1.31 | 73% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | B. Shelton | 3 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-06 | US Open | Hard | T. Paul | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | Y. Wu | 0 - 3 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | J. Faria | 1 - 3 | — | — | WON |
J. Lehecka — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Tokyo | Hard | C. Alcaraz | 2 - 0 | 4.03 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-10-05 | Tokyo | Hard | V. Vacherot | 2 - 0 | 1.56 | 62% | WON |
| 2026-10-04 | Tokyo | Hard | D. Vallejo | 2 - 0 | 1.35 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-10-03 | Tokyo | Hard | U. Humbert | 1 - 2 | 1.61 | 60% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Tokyo | Hard | Z. Bergs | 2 - 1 | 1.32 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-18 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group | - Play Offs | B. Shelton | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 1 - 3 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | T. Samuel | 3 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | P. Carreno-Busta | 3 - 1 | — | — | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Carlos Alcaraz or Jiri Lehecka?
Carlos Alcaraz is favourite at 1.29, which is a 76% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka?
Carlos Alcaraz is 1.29 and Jiri Lehecka is 4.03, the prices we recorded for the Tokyo match.
What is the head-to-head between Carlos Alcaraz and Jiri Lehecka?
They have met 5 times and Carlos Alcaraz leads 4-1.
Who will win Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka?
Our model makes it Jiri Lehecka to win a set (Lean confidence).