Alex Bolt v Dane Sweeny
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTD. Sweeny is 4-6 over the last ten and 21-20 on hard this season. A. Bolt is 5-5 over the last ten and 17-15 on hard this season. A. Bolt took a medical timeout on 2026-09-23. The head to head is A. Bolt 3-0.
The pick is D. Sweeny to win. We make it a 55% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.81 or bigger. At 1.70 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Bolt | D. Sweeny | |
|---|---|---|
| 183 | Ranking | 123 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 | 4-6 |
| WWLWW | Last 5 | WWLLW |
| +0.1 | V the odds | -0.1 |
| 22-21 | Season | 27-24 |
| 17-15 | Hard 2026 | 21-20 |
| 2 | Last 7 days | 2 |
| 1d | Days rest | 1d |
| 2 | Wins here | 2 |
| MTODefending final | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 3-0 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Jingshan | A. BoltvD. Sweeny | 2 - 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Brisbane 3 | A. BoltvD. Sweeny | 2 - 0 |
| 2022-11-01 | Sydney | A. BoltvD. Sweeny | 2 - 0 |
| 2022-10-06 | M25 Cairns | D. SweenyvA. Bolt | 0 - 2 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Bolt — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Jingshan | Hard | L. Harris | 1 - 1 RET | 4.39 | 79% | LOST |
| 2026-10-02 | Jingshan | Hard | D. Sweeny | 2 - 0 | 2.27 | 57% | WON |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | E. Zhu | 2 - 1 | 1.47 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-29 | Jingshan | Hard | S. Pankin | 2 - 0 | 1.31 | 74% | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | Hangzhou | Hard | F. Marozsan | 2 - 0 | 3.56 | 73% | LOST |
| 2026-09-23 | Hangzhou | Hard | A. Santillan | 2 - 1 | 1.45 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Hangzhou | Hard | O. Jasika | 2 - 0 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | US Open | Hard | P. Llamas Ruiz | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Lexington | Hard | A. Shelbayh | 0 - 2 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-07-26 | Washington | Hard | A. Vukic | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
D. Sweeny — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Jingshan | Hard | A. Bolt | 2 - 0 | 1.70 | 57% | LOST |
| 2026-10-01 | Jingshan | Hard | P. Bar Biryukov | 0 - 2 | 1.37 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-09-30 | Jingshan | Hard | O. Jasika | 1 - 2 | 1.46 | 66% | WON |
| 2026-09-24 | Hangzhou | Hard | T. Daniel | 0 - 2 | 2.39 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-09-05 | US Open | Hard | L. Darderi | 3 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | L. Musetti | 3 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-09-01 | US Open | Hard | C. Moutet | 2 - 0 RET | — | — | WON |
| 2026-08-18 | Quebec City (Canada) - Qualification | Hard | J. De Jong | 2 - 0 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-11 | Cincinnati | Hard | C. O'Connell | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
| 2026-08-01 | Montreal | Hard | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 1 | — | — | LOST |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alex Bolt or Dane Sweeny?
Dane Sweeny is favourite at 1.70, which is a 57% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alex Bolt vs Dane Sweeny?
Alex Bolt is 2.27 and Dane Sweeny is 1.70, the prices we recorded for the Jingshan match.
What is the head-to-head between Alex Bolt and Dane Sweeny?
They have met 4 times and Alex Bolt leads 4-0.
Who will win Alex Bolt vs Dane Sweeny?
Our model makes it Dane Sweeny to win at 1.70 (Lean confidence).