Alejandro Dellien Velasco Murkel v Pablo Varillas Juan
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTJ. P. Varillas is 8-2 over the last ten and 24-17 on clay this season. M. A. Dellien Velasco is 4-6 over the last ten and 16-18 on clay this season. The head to head is M. A. Dellien Velasco 1-2.
The pick is J. P. Varillas to win 2-0. We make it a 56% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.79 or bigger. At 1.55 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| M. A. Dellien Velasco | J. P. Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Ranking | 190 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 8-2 |
| WLLLL | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| -1.6 | V the odds | +2.7 |
| 20-20 | Season | 32-21 |
| 16-18 | Clay 2026 | 24-17 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 3 |
| 2d | Days rest | 1d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Defending title |
| Head to head 1-2 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Buenos Aires 3 | M. A. Dellien VelascovJ. P. Varillas | 1 - 2 |
| 2025-11-19 | Guayaquil | J. P. VarillasvM. A. Dellien Velasco | 2 - 0 |
| 2024-11-04 | Lima 2 Challenger Men | J. P. VarillasvM. A. Dellien Velasco | 0 - 2 |
| 2022-03-04 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | J. P. VarillasvM. A. Dellien Velasco | 2 - 0 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
M. A. Dellien Velasco — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | J. P. Varillas | 1 - 2 | 5.06 | 81% | LOST |
| 2026-09-21 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | H. Casanova | 2 - 0 | 2.80 | 67% | WON |
| 2026-08-25 | Augsburg | Clay | B. Sanchez Martinez | 2 - 0 | 2.83 | 66% | LOST |
| 2026-08-18 | Sion (Switzerland) | Clay | R. Nijboer | 0 - 2 | 2.12 | 55% | LOST |
| 2026-08-10 | Todi | Clay | D. E. Galan | 0 - 2 | 3.90 | 76% | LOST |
| 2026-08-04 | Plovdiv 2 (Bulgaria) | Clay | A. Andreev | 0 - 2 | 2.98 | 68% | LOST |
| 2026-07-31 | M25 Wetzlar | Clay | J. Loge | 0 - 2 | 2.39 | 60% | LOST |
| 2026-07-30 | M25 Wetzlar | Clay | L. G. Verwerft | 2 - 1 | — | — | WON |
| 2026-07-29 | M25 Wetzlar | Clay | J. van Assendelft | 2 - 1 | 1.13 | 85% | WON |
| 2026-07-23 | M25 Sao Paulo | Clay | J. Pereira | 2 - 0 | 1.23 | 78% | LOST |
J. P. Varillas — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | M. A. Dellien Velasco | 1 - 2 | 1.18 | 81% | WON |
| 2026-09-22 | Buenos Aires 3 | Clay | T. Farjat | 1 - 2 | 1.01 | 91% | WON |
| 2026-09-20 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | H. J. Escurra Isnardi | 2 - 0 | 1.05 | 90% | WON |
| 2026-09-19 | ATP Davis Cup - World Group I | - Preliminary | D. Vallejo | 2 - 1 | 3.00 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-09-10 | Genova | Clay | F. Passaro | 0 - 2 | 2.69 | 64% | WON |
| 2026-09-08 | Genova | Clay | F. Arnaboldi | 2 - 1 | 1.37 | 71% | WON |
| 2026-09-06 | Como | Clay | M. Dodig | 2 - 0 | 2.74 | 65% | LOST |
| 2026-09-05 | Como | Clay | J. Clarke | 2 - 1 | 1.81 | 53% | WON |
| 2026-09-02 | Como | Clay | F. Arnaboldi | 0 - 2 | 1.39 | 69% | WON |
| 2026-08-31 | Como | Clay | J. Kumstat | 2 - 0 | 3.32 | 71% | WON |
Common questions
Who is favourite, Alejandro Dellien Velasco Murkel or Pablo Varillas Juan?
Pablo Varillas Juan is favourite at 1.18, which is a 81% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Alejandro Dellien Velasco Murkel vs Pablo Varillas Juan?
Alejandro Dellien Velasco Murkel is 5.06 and Pablo Varillas Juan is 1.18, the prices we recorded for the Buenos Aires 3 match.
What is the head-to-head between Alejandro Dellien Velasco Murkel and Pablo Varillas Juan?
They have met 4 times and Pablo Varillas Juan leads 3-1.
Who will win Alejandro Dellien Velasco Murkel vs Pablo Varillas Juan?
Our model makes it Pablo Varillas Juan to win 2-0 at 1.55 (Lean confidence).